Football analyst Mick McGuane unpacks the best and worst of the Bombers and Blues so far
Carlton and Essendon sit just outside the top eight. But are either of their seasons truly alive? Mick McGuane unpacks the best and worst of the Bombers and Blues.
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Peaks and pitfalls: Blues and Bombers are the AFL’s biggest mystery sides
At the end of round 11, Essendon could be 6-4 and Carlton 5-5, but are either of their seasons truly alive? Mick McGuane unpacks the best and worst of the Bombers and Blues so far.
ESSENDON
BOMBERS NEED RESPONSE AFTER HUMILIATION
Essendon must hit Richmond hard to make up for their staggering first-half embarrassment and humiliation against the Western Bulldogs.
It was like a training drill on Saturday night – the Bombers could hardly stick an effective tackle and it was like the Bulldogs were the Harlem Globetrotters, transferring the ball effortlessly from inside the contest to outside to a teammate in space.
Extraordinary pressure was piled on the Essendon backline, and they crumbled after holding up strongly for the previous month.
Brad Scott and his players must ask themselves how they let through nine unanswered goals to start the game, and come up with a method to avoid a similar momentum swing against them.
They were exposed inside the contest, and it’s on their preferred midfield mix of Zach Merrett, Will Setterfield, Sam Durham and Jye Caldwell to reset and be harder to play against when they meet the Tigers.
Merrett was well contained, and if he isn’t getting his hands on the ball, do the Bombers have a creative and classy ball user who can supply their forwards?
And who is their Bailey Dale, who can rack up handball receives and incisively deliver the ball by foot from halfback?
BOMBERS TURNOVERS
Archie Roberts, in his second season, looks like a nice kick who will get there, but he is turning the ball over at the moment as he finds his feet at the level.
Mason Redman is still searching for his stellar 2023 form and has also been a culprit by foot, but it’s the vice-captain Andrew McGrath who is giving away the ball far too often, ranked ninth in the competition with 24 defensive half turnovers in nine games.
McGrath is a reliable small defender player but the Bombers need him to use the ball much better than he currently is when exiting their counter-attack region to help their transition game.
SEARCH FOR TERRITORY
Essendon’s percentage of 81.4 is the lowest ever for a team with a 5-4 record.
It is clear since the heavy Adelaide defeat that they have been careful with the ball in hand so their defence can set up behind them, but perhaps they have over corrected.
It’s like they are defending with the footy.
Is it suitable for this playing group to play a “control game” through kick/mark?
The Bombers average the most disposals of any team and the second-most uncontested marks, but this has not translated into movement from the defensive 50 to forward 50, where they rank 16th in front of only North Melbourne and Richmond.
Imagine being Peter Wright, Nate Caddy and Isaac Kako, just screaming out for supply as their teammates find plenty of the ball further afield but either lose possession or go into a slow play looking for a safe option.
They have to play with more dare and risk opening themselves up at the back to give themselves a chance of kicking more winning scores.
I think under Brad Scott there is an improved selflessness to this playing group, which was once too focused on possession and not enough on defensive formation.
And another significant positive is the form of Zach Reid, who is doing the team things in defence and has also been neat with his ball use.
It is brilliant to see him grow in confidence with each game after a wretched run with injury, and he will only benefit further when Jordan Ridley returns from injury.
Ridley’s on field leadership skills are unheralded, just like Alex Pearce from Fremantle or Jeremy Howe at Collingwood.
I would love to have him mic’d up for a game when he returns.
Hearing him marshalling his troops out there in the heat of battle would give everyone an insight as to why he is solely missed when he is out of the team.
CARLTON
THE BRAND HASN’T VANISHED
There is no doubt that the effort and intent from Carlton’s players is there under Michael Voss, and it has allowed the Blues to maintain strong defensive and contested profiles despite their inconsistent results.
No team has matched the Blues this year for contested possession differential, they sit fifth for clearances and sixth for points from clearances.
Winning contests and clearances isn’t an issue.
When the game is played in tight, the Blues are thriving, and have taken a lead into halftime in nine out of their 10 games.
They are just the ninth team to do this, but the only one of those teams that has gone on to squander five of those leads.
Carlton’s back end is also holding up really strongly – the Blues are the most difficult team to score against from clearance, are the third best at defending turnovers and rank fifth for scores against per inside 50.
The balance of their backline was a concern to me going into the season, and whether they had too many mid-sized players, but Nick Haynes has come good after a shaky start, and Jack Silvagni has been a revelation.
Silvagni, if he doesn’t come up, will be missed against GWS on Saturday with his groin issue, but the Blues continue to have impressive stability with their defensive personnel – Weitering, Haynes, McGovern, Saad and Ollie Hollands are all among the 10 Blues to have played every game this season.
McGovern has been the No. 1 rebounder, and while the Blues still look like they need more dash from Saad out of defence, they are moving the ball quickly from defence to attack.
Carlton is the third-best ball movement side so far behind the Western Bulldogs and Gold Coast, and on track for their best transition numbers since 2010.
WHO CAN MAKE THE MONEY KICK?
If Carlton has the defensive integrity and ball movement of a top-four side, then it is easy to pinpoint where it is all going wrong.
For all the territory, the Blues are averaging four fewer goals per game than the Suns and Bulldogs, and it’s because they haven’t been able to retain the ball inside 50.
They haven’t had any continuity in their forward personnel, and that’s a valid excuse – not having Charlie Curnow and Harry McKay’s playing together has hurt and Brodie Kemp’s absence has also been felt – not only for his seven goals in five games but also for the 2.2 tackles he was averaging as a hybrid forward.
The backline has been stable, but Jesse Motlop is the only forward who has played every game for the Blues, and perhaps that’s why they haven’t been able to consistently find connection with the midfielders.
But foot skills are also an issue, and have dogged every Blues on-baller except Patrick Cripps, who is their highest-rated kick inside 50 this season.
BLUES MONEY KICK CULPRITS
They need more composure and care from their other key ballwinners George Hewett and Adam Cerra, while Tom De Koning and Ollie Hollands have also been among their most prolific inside 50 kickers for very little return.
De Koning needs to reduce the frequency with which he grabs the ball out of the ruck and hacks it forward – as his midfielders are having no issues finding the ball, so while it is a useful ruck variation it is too often denying them potential opportunities to do damage out of stoppages by chaining out with handballs in an attempt to get better looks when entering the forward line.
Can the Blues get the ball from the inside to the outside like the Bulldogs and then use the ball effectively when going inside 50?
Voss must continue to challenge his players to improve this facet of their game otherwise it will continue to frustrate those that play as forwards. Good kickers separate games and this is Carlton’s biggest issue. They just don’t have enough elite ball users, especially when entering inside forward 50.
This explains why Carlton are ranked 18th in the competition when it comes to scores per inside 50 efficiency.
This is what currently sets the best teams apart.
Carlton fans must get increasingly frustrated with some of the ball use and decision making they witness during games. To see a positive build up out of defence, only to be let down by an errant kick or handball to close out that attack when either entering inside 50 or once in there, has been a constant theme of the Blues this year.
Hewett is the Blues’ only player inside the top 30 in the competition for score involvements – the Bulldogs have seven in that group.
It is a clear deficiency on their list and leaves them short on options. Can Jordan Boyd or Saad play on a wing? Is it worth exploring, as Blake Acres’ kicking efficiency has been poor at times when he has played.
What is certain is that the Blues must chase the best kicks in the next two drafts to complement the strong and competitive inside players they have on the list.
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