The Phantom’s Trade Talk: Who to trade in, when to do it and the cash cows on the edge
In the Round 6 edition of Trade Talk, The Phantom looks at the form and all of the SuperCoach breakevens to make the call on who to trade in — and when to do it — over the next few weeks.
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In the Round 6 edition of Trade Talk, The Phantom looks at the form and all of the SuperCoach breakevens to make the call on who to trade in — and when to do it — over the next few weeks.
DEFENCE
THIS WEEK
Brodie Smith (Adel) $409,800
Average: 92, Breakeven: 24
The long-kicking defender was at his best against the Suns in Round 5, tallying 27 disposals, a game-high 674 metres gained, two goals and 110 SuperCoach points. And that followed on from his 104-point performance a week earlier against the Kangaroos. If it wasn’t for an uncharacteristically poor night by foot against the Cats, resulting in 68 points, Smith would be right on the edge of the top-eight. He’ll be right around that mark for the rest of the year, making his current price tag very appealing.
Shannon Hurn (WC) $562,700
Ave: 113, Breakeven: 67
If you’re in the market for an early upgrade in defence, the West Coast skipper could be your man this week. Hurn has already added $39k to his starting price tag but, at $562k, he’s still a good buy after scores of 109, 139 and 121 in the past three weeks. A breakeven of 67 means he’ll pushing the $600k-mark very soon.
WAIT
Jake Lloyd (Syd)
Ave: 121, Breakeven: 137
The playmaking Swan is a SuperCoach must-have but scores of 111 and 109 have, somewhat, halted his price rise. Lloyd’s price fell by $5k this week and, with a breakeven of 137 for Round 6, it could go down again.
ROOKIES
ON THE EDGE
Jordan Clark (Ave: 59, Breakeven: 43)
Will Clark be the next young Cat to be rested? His breakeven is getting close to his average so it could be time to trade if so.
Connor Rozee (Ave: 77, BE: 74)
He’s capable of another big score against the Kangaroos — and he’s not falling out of the Power side anytime soon — but a high Round 6 breakeven means he’s also a chance to lose value from his $331k price tag.
TRADE TIME
Chris Burgess (Average: 38, BE: 44)
Burgess has only made $48k but it might be time to bank it and run with the mature-age Sun failing to get within 13 points of his Round 6 breakeven in the past two weeks.
MIDFIELD
THIS WEEK
Zach Merrett (Ess) $603,200
Ave: 118, Breakeven: 58
Despite a 67-point performance in Round 1, Merrett is the fifth-ranked SuperCoach midfielder after five rounds. Only Patrick Cripps has scored more points than the Bomber star in the past three weeks. There will, arguably, be more value in a number of fallen premiums over the next month but, if you’re keen, this is the last week to jump on before another steep price rise.
Tom Rockliff (Port) $450,300
Ave: 104, Breakeven: 31
This is also the week to jump on the Power ball magnet before his 36-point score falls out of his three-round rolling average. Rockliff, who is averaging 104 points per game, despite the injury-affected score in Round 3, won’t be available for less than $500k for long.
WAIT
Jack Macrae (WB) $654,300
Ave: 121, Breakeven: 173
In Round 5, Macrae failed to reach three figures for the first time this season, losing another $21k off his price tag. With a Round 6 breakeven of 173, the fourth-highest scoring midfielder is slowing becoming more affordable for non-owners.
Clayton Oliver (Melb) $562,400
Ave: 100, Breakeven: 131
Speaking of affordable, the Melbourne midfielder is becoming just that after losing $60k off his starting price tag in the opening five rounds. Oliver has a three-round average of 97 — a mark he passed in 17 of his 22 home-and-away matches last season — and is likely to fall again.
Josh Kelly (GWS) $594,100
Ave: 102, Breakeven: 134
After a limited pre-season, the star Giant has posted scores of 95, 114 and 97 in his three matches since returning to the Giants’ side in Round 3. But, in good news for SuperCoaches, Kelly’s price dropped by more than $20k and he faces another big breakeven in Round 6. Get ready to jump on.
ROOKIES
ON THE EDGE
Zak Butters (Ave: 65, Breakeven: 51)
James Cousins (Ave: 69, BE: 55)
Luke Davies-Uniacke (Ave: 76, BE: 58)
All three might still have another price rise in them but if you like Richmond’s Jack Ross, whose job security got a whole lot stronger with the news of Trent Cotchin’s injury setback, then they could make way.
FORWARD
THIS WEEK
Jack Billings (StK) $496,700
Ave: 100, Breakeven: 69
We’ve seen enough from Billings in the opening five rounds to suggest he’s finally ready to fulfil his enormous SuperCoach potential. Billings, who is averaging a career-high 30 disposals per game, is the seventh-ranked forward in the game after scores of 108, 126 and 93 in the past three weeks.
Michael Walters (Freo) $513,000
Ave: 104, Breakeven: 56
He’s on thousands of SuperCoach never-again lists but we can’t ignore Walters’ start to 2019. The 28-year-old is the third-ranked forward after posting SuperCoach tons in four of the first five rounds of the year. If you’re brave enough, with a Round 6 breakeven of 56, it has to be this week.
Travis Boak (Port) $579,000
Ave: 121, Breakeven: 107
After failing to pass the 100-point mark for the first time this season, the price of the No. 1 SuperCoach forward in the game has steadied. He’s still a good buy this week but after 95 points against the Eagles, Boak’s price might not be shooting past $600k as quickly as we thought.
NEXT WEEK
Tim Kelly (Geel) $491,000
Ave: 98, Breakeven: 117
The temptation is there after the classy 24-year-old’s season-high 129-point performance against the Hawks. But his Round 4 score of 39 is still having an impact on his breakeven, meaning he’s likely to be available for a similar price next week. Or even less if he cops the Mark Hutchings tag on Sunday.
ROOKIES
ON THE EDGE
Matthew Parker (Ave: 61, Breakeven: 42)
He’s not a must-trade just yet, especially given a trade to Tiger bubble boy Liam Baker will only net you $52k.
Final word: How to deal with SuperCoach rookie blow
There was more KFC SuperCoach carnage at team selection this week. But there was some good news, too. The Phantom looks at all the Round 4 teams, how to deal with new rookie blow and all the weekend’s best captain options
SuperCoach: Simpkin, Petracca or Smith – who do you take?
Jy Simpkin, Bailey Smith and Christian Petracca all present tremendous value in the KFC SuperCoach forward line ahead of Round 4. But, if you’re trading Josh Dunkley or cashing out on Lachie Whitfield, which one do you choose?