The Phantom’s take: Tom Lynch’s move to the Tigers plus the ball magnet ready to thrive on the Gold Coast
AMID the hysteria of the AFL’s Trade Period, The Phantom crunches the numbers and analyses every trade and free agency move as they happen. Tom Lynch, Anthony Miles and Lincoln McCarthy all found new homes on day 1
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AMID the hysteria of the AFL’s Trade Period, The Phantom crunches the numbers and analyses every trade and free agency move as they happen.
Tom Lynch
Gold Coast to Richmond (free agent)
THE NUMBERS
2018 — Games: 10, SuperCoach average: 78
Average 2014-2017: 85, 93, 88, 83
Any player who boasts a career-high score of 180 is always SuperCoach relevant.
But when you are a key-forward playing in a team which averaged 47 inside 50s per game — the second lowest in the competition — in 2018 and only one more in 2017, it’s tricky.
Still, Lynch kicked more than 40 goals in four consecutive seasons from 2014 to 2017 and booted 66 goals and a took a league-high 62 contested marks in a standout 2016 campaign.
After stagnating in 2017, the 25-year-old only managed 10 games in his final season on the Gold Coast before a persistent knee injury ended his year after Round 14.
While Lynch posted that career high in Round 2 against the Blues, the star forward failed to score more than 71 in six of the next eight games, recording his lowest season average since 2013.
But 2019 is a different story.
Richmond is next year’s flag favourite, despite their preliminary final exit and, more importantly, put the ball inside 50 13 more times per game than the Suns last season.
This resulted in the Tigers taking, on average, 13 marks inside 50 per game — the second-most in the competition and five more than the 18th-ranked Gold Coast.
Sure, Richmond’s game isn’t built around dominant tall forwards but there is no doubt Lynch will get his hands on the ball more in 2019.
THE BIG QUESTION
Can he fit in at Tigerland?
ESTIMATED 2019 SUPERCOACH PRICE
$430,000
THE PHANTOM’S EARLY VERDICT
If he can, a 90+ average is on the cards. And he will be priced below that figure. On the watchlist.
Anthony Miles
Richmond to Gold Coast
The deal: Miles, Corey Ellis + 2019 third round selection for a 2019 third round selection.
THE NUMBERS
2018 - Games: 1, SuperCoach average: 90
Average 2014-2017: 100, 97, 90, 71
This trade will good for everyone.
Good for Miles, good for the Suns and great for SuperCoaches.
The 26-year-old makes his way to the Gold Coast, where he should, once again, feature in the first-choice midfield, after 71 senior appearances in seven years at Punt Road.
In 51 of those matches, the tough inside-midfielder tallied 20 disposals or more and scored at least 80 SuperCoach points in 46 of them.
While he only played six games in the past two seasons, Miles played 53 out of a possible 54 matches between Round 12, 2014 and Round 21, 2016.
And his numbers rank him as one of Richmond’s best performed midfielders during this time.
In 2015, Miles ranked third at the club for disposals, 2nd for contested possessions, 2nd for tackles and 2nd for inside 50s while also recording 25 more clearances than any other Tiger.
With the arrival of Dion Prestia and the rise of Kane Lambert, Jack Graham and Jack Higgins, in particular, Miles has struggled to command a spot in the midfield in the past two years and his lack of pace has seen him unable to fit in elsewhere.
But he couldn’t have done anymore in the VFL, averaging 29 disposals, eight clearances and 121 SuperCoach points at the level since 2014.
The Suns, who ranked 18th for disposals, 12th for contested possessions and 17th for inside 50s, need ready-made midfielders who can win the ball and get it forward.
And they’ve got one.
THE BIG QUESTION
Will Stuart Dew pick him?
ESTIMATED 2019 SUPERCOACH STARTING PRICE
$440,000
THE PHANTOM’S EARLY VERDICT
While it seems obvious that he should, he didn’t pick Will Brodie until Round 11 and Michael Barlow, who was eventually delisted, only played three games. But I think Miles will be different. Lock him in.
Lincoln McCarthy
Geelong to Brisbane
The Deal: McCarthy + Picks 54 and 57 for Picks 42 and 60
THE NUMBERS
2018 — Games: 2, SuperCoach average: 57
Average 2014-2017: 52, DNP, 55, 61
The former Glenelg junior has shown glimpses but his body has let him down far too often.
After being drafted at pick No. 66 in the 2011 National Draft, the small-forward has managed just 29 senior appearances in his seven years on Geelong’s list.
Only once has the 25-year-old played more than four games in a season and that was in 2016.
In that year, McCarthy booted 17 goals from 17 games, while averaging 11 disposals and three tackles.
But, after tallying 45 clangers, McCarthy averaged just 55 SuperCoach points.
In Round 11 this year, the talented McCarthy, who is good in the air and creative around goal, played his first senior game in 18 months but, after, again, succumbing to injury, wasn’t seen again after Round 13.
The Cats have been very patient with McCarthy, who played basketball and state cricket in his younger days, so they thought he had something.
A move to Brisbane, where he hopes to join close friend and Docker Lachie Neale, could be his chance to show the rest of the football world why the Cats showed so much faith.
A fit McCarthy would also add another element to the Lions’ developing — and exciting — forward line.
And given the midfield Chris Fagan is assembling, they soon might see plenty of action.
THE BIG QUESTION
It’s an obvious one; will his body hold up?
ESTIMATED 2019 STARTING PRICE
$280,000
EARLY VERDICT
If he’s fit, he should get a crack in Brisbane’s side but that’s a big if.
Nathan Krueger
Carlton to Geelong
The deal: Kreuger (state league pre-draft selection) to Geelong for pick No. 42)
After impressing with 16 disposals, eight marks, five inside 50s and a goal in his only full game in the 2017 Under 18 Championships, many expected the athletically-gifted Kreuger to be drafted last year.
Instead, the versatile 19-year-old was overlooked and remained with South Adelaide, where he made his SANFL league debut this season.
The 196cm Kreuger, who played forward for the Panthers, took 21 contested marks and booted 22 goals in 13 league appearances in 2018.
Geelong recruiting and list manager Stephen Wells doesn’t get too many wrong.
ESTIMATED 2019 STARTING PRICE
$117,000
EARLY VERDICT
The Cats aren’t afraid to play the kids, especially the older ones. Watchlist.