The Phantom’s SuperCoach face offs: Lineballs in defence

THE Phantom’s verdict on some of the biggest lineball SuperCoach selection dilemmas in defence.

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RORY Laird or Michael Hurley? Kade Simpson or Heath Shaw?

The Phantom’s Facebook and Twitter pages have been swamped with requests for advice from SuperCoaches who need to make a decision between two players of similar cost.

With that in mind, here is The Phantom’s defender form guide to help with some of the borderline calls which could make or break your SuperCoach season.

Tomorrow, we’ll be looking at the tough decisions facing all SuperCoaches in the midfield. If you can’t decide between two players, drop The Phantom a line on his Facebook page and he’ll try to help you out.

But for now, here’s the Phantom’s call on six key defensive selections.

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All Australians Hurley and Laird are closely matched, but the Essendon star has a scoring edge.

Michael Hurley (Ess) $563,500 v Rory Laird (Adel) $550,800

Hurley, the All-Australian centre half-back, averaged 26 disposals at 79 per cent efficiency in 2017. Laird, also an All-Australian last year, averaged 30 disposals at 81 per cent efficiency.

Hurley averaged 0.9 points-per-minute during the home-and-away season. Laird pipped him but only just, averaging 1 point-per-minute.

Including finals, Hurley posted 13 SuperCoach tons for the year. As did Laird.

Do you see where I am going with this?

These two are hard to split.

Even their season averages have followed a similar trajectory.

The time-frame is slightly different due to the year Hurley missed with suspension but in his past three seasons, the tough, highly-skilled Bomber has increased his average from 86 to 95 to 102.

Adelaide’s damaging half-back flanker went from 94 to 97 in 2016 before pushing that number to 100 last season.

Maybe Hurley just wins that category given his sharper spike.

And a closer look reveals that, even though they broke the 100-point barrier 13 times each, Hurley played four less games and, after a quiet first month, scored 100 points or more in 13 of his final 17 matches for the year.

Both players are SuperCoach stars and, barring injury, will sit comfortably among the top 6 defenders at the year’s end but Hurley averaged 1.8 more rebound 50s, 1 more intercept mark and took double the amount of contested marks.

That’s why his scoring power remains slightly higher.

VERDICT: Hurley. But only just. Have both if you can.

Crisp has a durability edge over Hanley.

Pearce Hanley (GC) $428,000 v Jack Crisp (Coll) $455,300

This is the ultimate high-ceiling or durable and consistent debate.

In the past three seasons, the Collingwood midfielder-turned-defender has played 66 consecutive games, scoring more than 80 points in 68 per cent of them.

In contrast, Hanley, has made 46 appearances in this time, passing the 80-point barrier in 54 per cent of them.

But, over his career, Hanley has recorded eight scores in excess of 140 and boasts a personal best of 191.

At this stage, there is no doubt Hanley’s scoring power is greater than that of Crisp, who has only scored more than 120 points three times in his 84-game career.

However, Crisp, who averaged 91 points after the bye in 2017, has scored 1810 more points than Hanley over the past three years.

And total points is what wins you the $50k major prize in SuperCoach.

VERDICT: Crisp. Sure, Hanley, who is set for a greater midfield role in 2018, is more likely to average 100 but, going on recent history, Crisp is more likely to play 22 games. And, after settling into a new role as an attacking defender at the back-end of 2017, a 95-point average looks achievable.

Houli was influential on grand final day, but Brandon Ellis has better SuperCoach figures.

Bachar Houli (Rich) $517,400 v Brandon Ellis (Rich) $502,500

Houli, who was influential on grand final day last year tallying 118 SuperCoach points, averaged 94 points per game in 2017 — the third time the dashing defender has averaged 90 points more in his 11 seasons.

The 29-year-old’s scoring was, again, inconsistent and this is the main reason he’s failed to average more 95 in his career. In his 18 games last season, Houli passed the 127-point mark on four occasions, while also failing to score more than 77 points four times.

His teammate, Ellis’ 91-point average was also the third time he’s passed that mark in his career.

But the 24-year-old has only been in the competition for six seasons and he’s already averaged more than 97 twice, a figure that Houli is yet to reach.

A closer look also reveals Ellis’ scoring in the back-half of the year, after adjusting to a positional move into defence, was better than the 91-point average suggests.

In the final 13 games of the home-and-away season, Ellis averaged 100, scoring 96 points or more nine times, including a huge 30-disposal, 147-point performance in Round 10.

VERDICT: Ellis. He’s played 106 consecutive games and The Phantom believes he’s got another gear to go to. Whereas Houli might not.

Witherden is more likely than Lloyd to be an elite scorer.

Alex Witherden ($478,900) v Jake Lloyd ($479,900)

After averaging 100 points in the opening nine rounds of 2017, Lloyd suffered a nasty concussion and never really got going again after that, recording only one SuperCoach ton after the bye and failing to score more than 82 in the his final five games of the year.

Lloyd is a reliable ball-winner and user, averaging 26 disposals at 79 per cent efficiency last season but, given he only averaged 87 SuperCoach points, can he become more damaging with the ball to compensate the uncontested nature of his game?

While — despite being a small sample — Witherden’s numbers show a similar outside game, in just nine appearances, the 19-year-old showcased how precise and damaging he can be with the ball going forward.

And the young Lion has only just scratched the surface.

The question with Witherden, who also averaged 87 points in his debut season which featured three SuperCoach tons, is how high — and how quickly — can he go?

The question with Lloyd, however, is whether or not he can develop into an elite scorer in his current role?

VERDICT: Witherden. Yes, $478k is a lot to pay for a second-year player but, while Lloyd should hold is form, Witherden is the one more likely to become an elite scorer.

McGrath is likely to get more midfield time than Mills.

Andrew McGrath (Ess) $388,400 v Callum Mills (Syd) $403,100

The two young stars going head-to-head in the midfield is going to be a sight for football fans and SuperCoaches to behold.

But for this to eventuate, both will need to be released from their half-back roles.

And, even with The Phantom’s begging of Sydney coach John Longmire, going by pre-season reports, it appears it will be McGrath who will get an opportunity first.

The 19-year-old Bomber averaged 20 disposals and 71 SuperCoach points per game playing in defence in his debut season but, as a midfielder in the TAC Cup, the composed McGrath averaged 32 disposals and 144 points.

With the arrival of Adam Saad, Essendon look set to inject McGrath into the midfield on a permanent basis in 2018.

While Mills was also a prolific ball-winner throughout his junior career, he’s become so important to Sydney across half-back in his first two seasons — averaging 77 and 73 SuperCoach points — that Longmire may again keep him there.

Like he did last year after teasing us with Mills the midfielder through the JLT Series.

VERDICT: McGrath. While The Phantom believes Mills will be the better scorer long term, McGrath looks set to win the race for more midfield time. However, if that appears to change over the next month, so does this verdict.

Although his average fell in 2017, Simpson is the better of the two SuperCoach Hall of Famers in 2018.

Heath Shaw (GWS) $458,100 v Kade Simpson (Carl) $516,300

The battle of the veterans and future SuperCoach hall-of-famers.

After averaging 113 and 106 in the previous two seasons, Shaw’s average dropped to 83 in 2017, the lowest of his 12-year career. The fall was mirrored in his ball-winning with Shaw’s disposal average his lowest since 2013 as young rebounding defenders Zac Williams and Nathan Wilson took charge across half-back for the Giants.

But, through injury and a move home to Perth, they will not be there for the majority of 2018.

Does that mean Shaw picks up from where he left off in 2016?

The Phantom doesn’t believe so.

While his responsibility — and the amount of footy he sees — will increase slightly, Shaw doesn’t replace the speed and long-kicking ability of Williams and Wilson. Shaw will be the leader but the Giants may look to a number of youngsters or one of their line-breaking midfielders to become the outlet out of defence.

And that’s why, although his average fell from 106 to 94 in 2017, The Phantom thinks Simpson is the veteran to go with in 2018

VERDICT: Simpson. The Blues defender, who will also step up in the absence of injured star Sam Docherty, scored four more SuperCoach tons than Shaw in 2017 and, although he, too, is reaching the twilight of his career, he appears to have more to offer.