Reece Homfray delivers his AFL pre-season Power Rankings, with Crows top of pecking order
HEADLINE you’ll never see? ‘Richmond wins the flag’. Yeah, about that. Reece Homfray delivers his pre-season AFL power rankings and admits he got it wrong about the Tigers last year.
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HEADLINE you’ll never see? ‘Richmond wins the flag’. Yeah, about that.
If the last two years have proven anything about the state of the competition it’s that absolutely anything is possible and any team can win the premiership, provided they do two things.
The first is they simply must catch fire in the final month of the season. It used to be finish top four or you’re no chance, but seeing the Western Bulldogs win the flag from seventh in 2016 proved that’s not always right.
Make the eight and strike form at the right time and you can beat anyone on your day.
The second is believe, even when no one else does. It worked for the Dogs and it certainly did for Richmond last year.
The Tigers had been the subject of cruel ‘ninth place’ jokes for years, hadn’t won a final since 2001 going into September last year and lost their only previous meeting with Adelaide before the grand final by 76 points.
Still, they believed they were playing well enough to pull off the big steal and that’s exactly what happened.
Ladder positions, history and win/loss records don’t always reflect the true form of teams in the competition, which is why The Advertiser’s Power Rankings column is returning for 2018.
Four days out from the start of the new season, here’s how I view the pecking order of the 18 teams. Like last year, power rankings will be delivered online on Monday after every round.
1. ADELAIDE
For a team that made the grand final and finished minor premier with 15 wins last year, it’s amazing how many questions surround the Crows going into the new season.
Can they cover the loss of Jake Lever, Charlie Cameron and Brodie Smith? Are they mentally scarred from the grand final massacre? How serious are the injuries to Taylor Walker and Brad Crouch? And will the Rory Sloane contract sideshow prove unsettling?
The jury is out on those questions when they are viewed in isolation, but collectively what we have learnt about Adelaide in recent seasons is they are nothing if not resilient, determined and united.
Which is why I have a reasonable level of confidence tipping them to finish minor premier again this year and have another serious tilt at the flag.
The Crows were lauded for their high-scoring last year but they were also the fourth-best defence with Hartigan and Kelly taking the next step.
While Lever and Cameron’s departure isn’t great, Smith is the one they’ll miss the most as he recovers from a knee reco.
He gets them going so often with his run and he can pinpoint a 50m pass to get out of the most dangerous area of the ground. Who else can replicate that kick?
But I don’t think the Crows will go backwards. The class of Bryce Gibbs is obvious and Sam Gibson is smart recruiting. Fans will want to see more of Jordan Gallucci and Myles Poholke while Alex Keath and Tom Doedee should be first in line for Lever’s spot, and Andy Otten will want to back up his big year after three in the wilderness. Does he play forward or back?
It’s a big season coming up for Curtly Hampton who will want consistency at the top level and there’s a bit of interest in Wayne Milera and whether he can kick on.
Six of their first nine games are at home including a Round 2 grand final rematch with the Tigers.
It’s hard to know what psychological toll the grand final loss will have but coach Don Pyke recommitting for three years gives the players long-term stability and confidence.
I think the grand final loss can be the making rather than the breaking of Adelaide this year.
JLT form: Beat Fremantle, lost to Port Adelaide
In the hurt box: Tex Walker (foot) and Brad Crouch (abdominal strain) are both racing the clock to be fit for round one on Friday night.
SuperCoach must-have: Rory Laird
Coming up: Essendon (Etihad Stadium)
2. SYDNEY
The Swans won’t be playing catch-up like last year (0-6) and you can pencil them in for top four now. Kurt Tippett is gone and his departure is compounded by a season-ending injury to Sam Naismith and Callum Sinclair is battling an ankle complaint. The Swans have debuted 13 players in the past two seasons — including Hewett, Papley and Hayward — and should see plenty of upside from them in 2018. It’s meant they’ve put the chequebook away in the off-season and will be hoping for some of Adelaide’s organic growth.
JLT form: Beat Brisbane and GWS
In the hurt box: Naismith is gone for the year and McVeigh and Hannebery both face a fitness test for round one.
SuperCoach must-have: Lance Franklin
Coming up: West Coast (Optus Stadium)
3. GWS
As good as the Giants were during the regular season there was a feeling of inevitability about how it would end and they lost three of their last four games by an average of 38 points.
But I feel they’re ready now. It’s going to be a big year for Rory Lobb now Shane Mumford has retired and they desperately need Brett Deledio to stay fit. Josh Kelly could win the Brownlow and they’ve found another handy forward in Harrison Himmelberg. Age isn’t an excuse given they’re the third oldest and fifth most experienced team in the comp.
JLT form: Beat Collingwood, lost to Sydney
In the hurt box: Griffen is two weeks away with an ankle injury while Scully and Hopper both face tests.
SuperCoach must-have: Josh Kelly
Coming up: Western Bulldogs (Canberra Oval)
4. PORT ADELAIDE
Steven Motlop is exciting, Tom Rockliff in addition to Sam Powell-Pepper, Ollie Wines and Brad Ebert is a luxury, but Jack Watts is the one to make a difference at Alberton this year.
While the Power had a league-high 13 players kick double figure goals last year, there still seemed too much reliance on the big fella Charlie Dixon to win the big games which was evident in the elimination final with his 3.6.
Watts is a beautiful kick — in the past two years he’s kicked 48.16 from set shots which makes him the fourth most accurate shot at goal from the top 50 goal kickers.
If he plays beyond the 50m arc he can hit targets and as the second or third tall forward can flourish in front of goal. He’s also got a point to prove after being shown the door at Melbourne so the Power should see the best of him — cue his six goals in the JLT game against Adelaide.
Last off-season was the biggest clean-out at Alberton in a decade with 11 players retiring, delisted or traded but importantly Ken Hinkley signed on until 2021.
Jackson Trengove, Jarman Impey and Aaron Young were the notable departures but they can be covered with Dom Barry, Riley Bonner, Dougal Howard and Todd Marschall. Barry is looking like a real find from the SANFL.
A fully fit Robbie Gray will be an outstanding result given what he went through late last year and All-Australian ruckman Paddy Ryder still has good footy in him.
Fans will want to see Willem Drew get an opportunity this season and Jack Trengove is good enough if required.
Port simply has to toughen up this year. It was 12-0 against bottom nine sides but could barely land a blow against the finalists in 2017.
Champion Data rates their draw the fourth easiest in the comp and they should be good enough to finish top four. From there, anything can happen as we have seen.
JLT form: Lost to West Coast, beat Adelaide
In the hurt box: Boak and Powell-Pepper are touch and go for round one, Pittard is longer but Broadbent’s ongoing ankle injury is a real worry.
SuperCoach must-have: Paddy Ryder
Coming up: Fremantle (Adelaide Oval)
5. GEELONG
Forward line lacks depth and if Tom Hawkins and Daniel Menzel don’t fire then there’s an issue but it’s covered up by the midfield’s ability to hit the scoreboard. It will be very hard to replace Tom Loneragn and Andrew Mackie’s 489 games experience between them, and Steven Motlop will be missed despite his inconsistency.
Gary Ablett is back but how fit, how motivated and how able is he at 33? The Cats should play him as a permanent forward next to Hawkins which is where he can have the most impact. Cats will play finals again but I can’t see them cracking the top four.
JLT form: Lost to Gold Coast and Essendon
In the hurt box: Dangerfield will test his injured hamstring but Henderson and Scott Selwood are about a month away.
SuperCoach must-have: Patrick Dangerfield
Coming up: Melbourne (MCG)
6. RICHMOND
Saw a replay of the AFL Grand Final on Fox Footy before Christmas and still had to remind myself that Richmond won the flag. Richmond. Premiers. Good for them but as the Dogs showed it doesn’t guarantee anything this season. They won’t tumble out of the eight but the element of surprise is gone.
What the flag will do is that players like Butler, Castagna, Rioli, Townsend, Lambert, Lloyd, McIntosh will grow an extra leg and be full of confidence. The small forward line took the AFL finals by storm and in full flight, Dustin Martin is the best player in the comp and unstoppable in front of goal.
JLT form: Beat Essendon and North Melbourne
In the hurt box: Houli (calf) and Prestia (ankle) aren’t yet locks for round one.
SuperCoach must-have: Dustin Martin
Coming up: Carlton (MCG)
7. HAWTHORN
Cyril Rioli didn’t play after Round 8 and Jaeger O’Meara only played six games in total last year. Get 20 into each of them and as guys like James Sicily and Tim O’Brien become 50-game players this year, the Hawks are on the up.
Jarman Impey is the most significant addition to the list and brings obvious pace but leadership will be tested without Luke Hodge in the defensive half.
The Hawks should have probably played finals last year so pencil them in for a return to September in 2018. Don’t worry about JLT form.
JLT form: Lost to Western Bulldogs and Carlton
In the hurt box: Birchall gone for three months and Langford out for four weeks.
SuperCoach must-have: Tom Mitchell
Coming up: Collingwood (MCG)
8. WESTERN BULLDOGS
An aberration going from premier to missing the eight but expect a quick bounce back. Lost four games by less than 10 points last year but scoring power was an issue. The Dogs were the fourth lowest scoring team in 2017 ahead of only Fremantle, Gold Coast and Carlton. Made a statement by trading Stringer which puts everyone on notice and Beveridge should get them to respond, but big concerns over their key defensive stocks given their injury list.
JLT form: Beat Hawthorn, lost to Collingwood
In the hurt box: Cruel blow losing Marcus Adams along with Dale Morris who are both listed as 12-week’ers with a knee and ankle.
SuperCoach must-have: Marcus Bontempelli
Coming up: GWS (Canberra Oval)
9. ESSENDON
Performed above expectations last year with a finals appearance on the back of their year in the wilderness and have recruited three genuine players to bolster the team for 2018. Devon Smith, Jake Stringer and Adam Saad are all clever additions given they fill multiple spots on the field and add instant depth to the team. Two huge finds last year were Orazio Fantasia and Anthony McDonald-Tipungwuti who rate ‘elite’ as forwards and the Andrew McGrath/Darcy Parish draft combo should start paying off big time. Finals should be the benchmark but not sure they’ll make it.
JLT form: Lost to Richmond, beat Geelong
In the hurt box: Colyer and Gleeson out for seven and 12 weeks respectively while Fantasia listed as one week with a knee.
SuperCoach must-have: Zach Merrett
Coming up: Adelaide (Etihad Stadium)
10. WEST COAST
Nic Nat’s back but it won’t return the Eagles to finals.
There was massive list turnover last year with six retirements and six delistings but it had to happen. They were just too flaky in Melbourne (2-5) and didn’t fire a shot against GWS in the final. The new stadium will give them a lift but that doesn’t help them on the road. Brendon Ah Chee adds a big body to the midfield and expect Jack Redden to step up in place of Priddis and Mitchell who retired.
JLT form: Beat Port Adelaide, lost to Fremantle
In the hurt box: Josh Kennedy to miss the start of the season with an ankle injury.
SuperCoach must-have: Elliot Yeo
Coming up: Sydney (Optus Stadium)
11. MELBOURNE
So close yet so far for the Demons last year. They’ve gone from 17th to 13th to 11th to 9th in four years but I can’t see the progression continuing into the eight this year. I have my worries about its defence. Tom McDonald and Jake Lever are good but they’re not that big, strong beast premiership teams have had in the past like Alex Rance, Dale Morris, Brian Lake. Simon Goodwin has them on the right track but can they cope with the weight of expectation?
JLT form: Beat North Melbourne and St Kilda
In the hurt box: Clayton Oliver and Jordan Lewis both listed as a test for round one.
SuperCoach must-have: Max Gawn
Coming up: Geelong (MCG)
12. ST KILDA
A total of 845 games’ experience walked out the door at St Kilda with the retirement of Nick Riewoldt, Leigh Montagna and Sean Dempster last season. And while finals might be beyond them this season, the steady improvement should continue. Under Alan Richardson they’ve gone from 18th to 14th to 9th and 11th and Acres, Billings, McCartin and Ross can all get better. But kicking straight will help after the Saints had the second worst goalkicking accuracy in the comp last year.
JLT form: Lost to Carlton and Melbourne
In the hurt box: Jack Steven facing a test on his injured ankle.
SuperCoach must-have: Seb Ross
Coming up: Brisbane (Etihad Stadium)
13. COLLINGWOOD
Controversially extended Nathan Buckley’s contract as coach for two years despite having not
played finals since 2013. But then again if you believe in a bloke it can pay off in the long run — look at Damien Hardwick at Richmond. The Pies have to play finals this year but I’m still not convinced the list is good enough.
Eight players cleaned out their locker last year and not a lot came in. Need players like Aish, Cox and Broomhead to take the next step.
JLT form: Lost to GWS, beat Western Bulldogs
In the hurt box: Goldsack gone for the year is a big blow and will we ever see consistency from Wells who is two weeks away with an achilles?
SuperCoach must-have: Taylor Adams
Coming up: Hawthorn (MCG)
14. FREMANTLE
Nathan Wilson and Brandon Matera are handy ins, as is a fit and healthy Nathan Fyfe. The new stadium may also give them a lift as it did the Power a few years ago in Adelaide. The Dockers aren’t a finals team but should win enough games at home and at least challenge on the road to give teams a headache.
JLT form: Lost to Adelaide, beat West Coast
In the hurt box: Both Hill brothers, Stephen and Bradley, are under injury clouds for the season opener.
SuperCoach must-have: Nat Fyfe
Coming up: Port Adelaide (Adelaide Oval)
15. GOLD COAST
Finished 17th last year and have lost one of the greatest players of all time in Gary Ablett but it wouldn’t surprise me to see a sharp spike at the Suns with Stuart Dew in charge.
Young coach, popular with the players, fresh start, we’ve seen it elsewhere before. Won’t play finals but can win more than six games. Jarryd Lyons to continue his improvement and Nick Holman will make the most of his second chance at AFL level.
Winning form is good form, JLT series or not, under a new coach.
JLT form: Beat Geelong and Brisbane
In the hurt box: Pearce Hanley out for 4-6 with a shoulder and will be a welcome return to the side.
SuperCoach must-have: Jarrod Witts
Coming up: North Melbourne (Cazaly’s Stadium)
16. BRISBANE
The Lions will be another improver this year with stability on and off the field. They’re well-coached with Chris Fagan at the helm and the No.1 draft pick Cameron Rayner has already extended his contract by two years.
Starts the season proper with a fully fit list and I’m looking forward to seeing the influence Luke Hodge has with the young Lions defence.
JLT form: Lost to Sydney and Gold Coast
In the hurt box: Marco Paparone 3-4 weeks with a back complaint.
SuperCoach must-have: Dayne Zorko
Coming up: St Kilda (Etihad Stadium)
17. CARLTON
Two first-round draft picks for Bryce Gibbs is nice but it won’t help this year. The Blues faded badly in the back half of last year winning one of their last 10 games. Made a swag of delistings but the improvement must come from within. Liam Jones and Matthew Wright have graduated to A-Graders or at least B+ players but need help at either end of the ground. Losing Sam Docherty to an ACL was a cruel blow before the season even started.
JLT form: Beat St Kilda and Hawthorn
In the hurt box: Docherty gone for the year and Kreuzer is a test for round one.
SuperCoach must-have: Marc Murphy
Coming up: Richmond (MCG)
18. NORTH MELBOURNE
Swallow, Hansen, Thomas, Gibson all gone but the Kangaroos had seen the best of them. I can’t get excited about the Kangas who will start the 2018 season as the most inexperienced and third youngest team in the competition.
Long-term road back to the finals is still in its infancy although Robbie Tarrant and Shaun Higgins are both stars and Luke McDonald is on the way there.
JLT form: Lost to Melbourne and Richmond
In the hurt box: Robbie Tarrant to be tested before he fronts for round one.
SuperCoach must-have: Todd Goldstein
Coming up: Gold Coast (Cazalys Stadium, Cairns)
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