New 6-6-6 rule means clubs can’t afford to start best midfielders up forward, Mick McGuane writes
The AFL’s new 6-6-6 rule for centre bounces means different things for different clubs. MICK McGUANE explains who’ll benefit most - and why there’s “no point having your best players where the ball ain’t”.
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Memo Chris Scott and Brendon Bolton … this isn’t the year to be starting midfield bulls Patrick Dangerfield and Patrick Cripps deep forward for centre bounces.
With the start of the JLT Community Series on Friday night when the Blues take on the Bombers, we’ll see how the AFL’s nine rule changes for 2019 might look in match-play simulations, albeit clubs will be holding back their main tactics for the home-and-away season.
There’s a degree of uncertainty about how each of them might work. But we do know the league is desperate to see the game become more free-flowing and instinctive, which they hope might also have a positive impact on low-scoring rates.
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I’m not so sure about the last one, but I do support most of the changes.
The one certainty is that with the new 6-6-6 rule — where clubs will be forced to have six players inside both 50m arcs with one starting in the goal square — centre clearances will become more important than ever.
Win them, and you can be deep in attack in a heartbeat.
That’s why clubs should follow the old Jack Dyer adage: “It’s no point having your best players where the ball ain’t.”
Under the new 6-6-6 rule, Geelong needs to put their major weapons in the centre for the bounce and that means Dangerfield.
Yes, he is a dangerous forward, but he will be far more potent in extracting the ball out of the middle.
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And it’s also why the Blues should abandon thoughts of having Cripps spend more time forward this year — unless it is in general play.
That means keeping Charlie Curnow forward and not turning him into a part-time midfielder.
This rule change suits first possession winners and breakaway midfielders.
Just think of what Chris Judd would have done under these circumstances, breaking free of the initial congestion without then being confronted by “spitters” (defenders coming in off the back of the square).
You want guys in the centre clearances who can win first possession, make good decisions and execute cleanly. If you can’t, there’s no point having you in there.
I understand all clubs need 10-12 midfielders who have been exposed to centre bounce situations, but when the game gets hot, most clubs will revert to their A-grade crew to get the job done.
THE WINNERS ARE …
Collingwood and Melbourne have the best two ruckmen in the game in Brodie Grundy and Max Gawn, and that’s going to be a big advantage.
Mind you, they also have the best midfield depth, too.
They have the class (Scott Pendlebury, Dayne Beams, Angus Brayshaw and Clayton Oliver), but they also have the grunt (Taylor Adams and Jack Viney), as well as the speed (Adam Treloar).
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There will still be room for taggers, but only those who can win their own ball too, such as Demon James Harmes.
Last year Champion Data ranked the Demons and Pies second and third for the best four-man combination for scores from centre clearance. Surprisingly, Essendon had the best.
Tom Bellchambers, David Myers, Dyson Heppell and Zach Merrett rated No.1, with 37 centre bounce involvements resulting in scores 21.6 per cent of the time.
That shows the Bombers, despite finishing 11th, got some things right, and they have added to their midfield depth with Dylan Shiel, and can throw in Devon Smith.
CATS’ CHALLENGE
For all of Geelong’s midfield strength on paper, not one of their four-man combinations rated among the top 10 in terms of percentage of scores from centre clearances.
That’s why it is so important that Dangerfield starts in there on a regular basis this year.
Geelong has also talked a bit in the pre-season about using Joel Selwood on the wing at times to ensure his often battered body can roll on for longer.
It’s a good sentiment, but they need him where the action is. He’ll thrive on these changes.
With Gary Ablett expected to take up a more permanent role in attack, it opens the door for Selwood, Dangerfield, Tim Kelly and Mitch Duncan to burst their way out.
The kick-in strategies will be fascinating with the Cats, too.
Geelong’s philosophy is about building from the back slowly and to play a possession-style from defence — possession over territory.
But the swiftness from which you can play on from a kick-in now might force them to revisit their strategies, particularly with a weapon such as Zach Tuohy.
The kick-in changes will see coaches wrestle with a dilemma over maintaining a defensive 50m slow-build philosophy against the risk-versus-reward invitation of the extra metreage and the speed and distance on offer for a quick breakaway.
WHAT’S THE SCORE?
I’m not convinced we will see a spike in scoring.
Centre bounce clearances last year resulted in 11 per cent of total scores, and scores from kick-ins yield 4 per cent of scores.
That’s 15 per cent in total, so we are not talking big numbers.
The aesthetics of the game will be better, but I don’t seriously believe this is going to be a panacea for a scoring explosion.
But it might keep games alive for longer, even if the flip side might mean some bigger blowouts.
BIG BULL CLASHES
I loved the rivalries of the past — Jakovich-Carey, Knights-Vander Haar, Picken-Maclure — and I think we’ll see more of these evolve with the emphasis switching back to more 50/50 contests.
Imagine Buddy Franklin and Alex Rance locking horns deep in attack at the SCG with Luke Parker driving the ball forward from a centre clearance.
We will clearly see the gun defenders play on the gun forwards in a one-on-one situation more often.
The pressure will come back on the defenders, too, with the alteration to hands in the back, and less help from their zone-off or extra defenders.
Defenders have had it pretty easy in recent years — with some clubs at times playing seven-man and eight-man defences, including Richmond and Adelaide.
This will be a real test of nerves in terms of the starting positions, even though I reckon players such as Rance will relish the challenge.
BEST KICK-IN TO SCORE CLUBS
1. Collingwood 12.6%
2. Hawthorn 10.9%
3. Melbourne 10.0%
4. Brisbane Lions 9.9%
5. Richmond 9.3%
6. North Melbourne 9.0%
7. St Kilda 9.0%
8. West Coast 8.2%
9. Carlton 7.9%
10. Sydney 7.8%
11. Port Adelaide 7.5%
12. GWS Giants 7.4%
13. Adelaide 7.3%
14. Geelong 7.1%
15. Fremantle 6.9%
16. Essendon 5.6%
17. Western Bulldogs 4.5%
18. Gold Coast 3.9%
BEST KICK-IN TO SCORE PLAYERS
1. Blake Hardwick (Haw) 45, 15.6%
2. Lynden Dunn (Coll) 59, 15.3%
3. Lachie Plowman (Carl) 54, 14.8%
4. Jeremy Finlayson (GWS) 63, 14.3%
5. Scott Thompson (NM) 79, 13.9%
Source: CHAMPION DATA
Originally published as New 6-6-6 rule means clubs can’t afford to start best midfielders up forward, Mick McGuane writes
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