Mick Malthouse: The bye, adversity, key players, finals and who will win the Premiership

Only eight teams remain in 2021. Who does Mick Malthouse rate and who does he still have question marks over? Read his analysis on every team.

Patrick Dangerfield of the Cats celebrates a goal during the 2020 AFL Grand Final match between the Richmond Tigers and the Geelong Cats at The Gabba on October 24, 2020 in Brisbane, Australia. (Photo by Chris Hyde/AFL Photos/via Getty Images)

The only remotely good thing to come out of Covid is that it rids us of a pre-finals bye that was totally unnecessary to begin with.

It came about in 2016 after several teams, across several years, made a farce of the system by resting multiple players in the final round of the home-and-away season.

All it did was disadvantage those who worked hard enough to finish in the top four, by letting the next four freshen up.

The race to the 2021 Toyota AFL Finals Series is on and every match matters. Watch Live & Ad-Break Free on Kayo. New to Kayo? Try 14-days free >

The Demons reward for the minor premiership is likely hub life interstate.

The season is a marathon. We don’t need to stop at the 35km mark and reset for the last 7km, to the disadvantage of the front runners.

If there is to be a bye at all, given the new concussion rules, I am very much in favour of a break between the preliminary finals and the grand final.

Injuries are an accepted part of the game. As bad luck as it is for Josh Bruce, Tom Stewart, and Nick Blakey, who will all miss finals, that’s the unfortunate nature of the game.

But with a head knock, there is a 12-day return to play protocol, regardless of the severity of the concussion. A bye here would ensure that if the player recovers in those 12 days, he can still play in the grand final.

We all want finals to be played in front of some sort of crowd, with atmosphere, as happened last year. The players deserve this, the clubs deserve this, and the AFL deserves this after doing a magnificent job to get two seasons to where they stand today during a pandemic.

But the unpredictability of where the finals will be played and what quarantining will be required, really will test the mantle of all clubs. We also have the uncertainty of state government premiers and chief medical officers calling for a lockdown at very short notice, all of which is providing a massive headache for the AFL.

Can the Bulldogs bounce back after a late-season collpase?

If all finals clubs are relocated away from Melbourne to somewhere like Perth, there is a logistical nightmare for where to house these teams. Word has it that they may need to be spread as far south as Bunbury, almost two hours from the city. So there lies another element of adversity for the clubs.

Locked in a bubble, they will only be allowed out to train and play.

So not only will it be which club is physically ready to play, but who is mentally prepared to live by that code to play off in a grand final.

As it sits today – the eight hasn’t even been decided.

My premiership tip in March was Geelong. I have no real reason to change that tip.

It is the most mature team, in age and games. And that elevates its potential to handle the hurdles.

Geelong are still my flag favourites. Picture: Getty Images

Plus, finals football is first about defence and then about scoring power.

Regardless of Stewart’s unfortunate injury, Geelong has a wonderfully tough and tight backline, plus a three-pronged attack – Tom Hawkins, Jeremy Cameron and Gary Rohan – that is unequalled by the teams that remain.

Rhys Stanley in form boosts the Cats’ midfield, and Mitch Duncan on the cusp of returning from a knee injury is good timing.

Geelong was highly unlucky last season. It lost Gary Ablett early and held a 15-point lead at halftime before being overrun by the talented Tigers. The Cats will be more prepared this year.

The unpredictably of teams that are in form, like Sydney, Greater Western Sydney and Essendon - if it can defeat Collingwood on Sunday – also means this year there could be an unpredictable member join the elite premiership honour board.

Essendon and GWS have replaced teams who have been out of form, West Coast and Richmond.

Port Adelaide are emerging strongly as real flag threats.

The top-eight team which is hardest to get an accurate read on is Port Adelaide. It beats up teams underneath it, but has struggled against better company.

Friday night’s win over the Western Bulldogs showed how easily it can turn things around because it has a good, even side. Travis Boak is in outstanding form, and Aliir Aliir has been brilliant in the backline. Charlie Dixon can’t just be a bully against average sides, he has to step up against real contenders, too.

The Bulldogs went into shock mode when they lost Bruce. I didn’t think I’d ever say this, but his absence has left a massive hole in the Dogs’ forward line. Its midfield, too, is sadly off the boil.

And their confidence and form deteriorated further with Friday night’s loss. Doubt is your enemy heading into finals.

Melbourne has surprised a lot of people by going about its business in a very workmanlike manner.

The Demons will go into this finals series with a reasonable amount of confidence that their systems are working for them.

Callan Ward and the GWS are a real flag dark horse.

My dark horse is GWS. It has hit a purple patch, with Leon Cameron coaching brilliantly.

So, too, John Longmire as Sydney continues to sneak under everyone’s guard. The Swans make it hard for any team to beat them.

Is there another ‘Dusty’ Martin out there to lift his team to glory? There are going to be players who stand up because the cream comes to the top in finals.

Geelong has hung on long enough and hard enough for Patrick Dangerfield to perform. This is an opportunity for him to win the one thing he still doesn’t have, a premiership medallion. The Cats need his leadership and versatility, and this is his year to deliver it.

Aaron Naughton’s form has slipped. As young as he is, he cannot help the Dogs win by being a potentially good player. He must stand up in these finals.

Possibly my favourite player, Toby Greene, may well hold the outcome of the Giants’ campaign in his hands, with his determination and brilliance.

It’s rare for the top-four teams to collectively have good form, but by Sunday night that may well be the case. Eight genuine premiership threats. Doesn’t that make things exciting.

Originally published as Mick Malthouse: The bye, adversity, key players, finals and who will win the Premiership