Mick Malthouse predicts who’ll make the AFL finals in 2017

SIX clubs are locks for this year’s finals but picking which teams fill the remaining top eight spots will be tough. MICK MALTHOUSE reveals who the contenders are.

IT FEELS much longer than five months since the Western Bulldogs held the premiership cup aloft, but this week it will be fresh in the minds of every football coach, player, staff member and fan as we kick off another season.

There has always been a follow-the-leader trend at the start of each season as clubs try to emulate or dissect the game plan that proved most successful the previous year.

This could be a year of exception.

The Bulldogs won from seventh place, with injures to key players — a typically improbable scenario. Except that only two wins and percentage separated the top seven teams. So it was anyone’s game.

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The Dogs knew that and a talented team virtually willed itself across the line.

The Bulldogs will be up there again this year.

The reigning premiers are always under massive pressure as they become the hunted, but they have enough ammunition.

A fit Bob Murphy and Mitch Wallis, the inclusion of Travis Cloke and the return of Stewart Crameri will alter the dynamics but won’t diminish the depth and quality of a very good team.

The Western Bulldogs have the depth to go back-to-back. Picture: Jason Edwards

We may see less of the Dogs’ quick handball game as the AFL clamps down on illegal disposal and tightens the loopholes the Bulldogs took good advantage of last season.

This season will reveal whether Sydney is a genuine top-four team. The Swans have a plan A ... and plan B is to move Lance Franklin up the ground.

The loss of Tom Mitchell will hurt them but may be covered by Callum Mills and Isaac Heeney with another pre-season behind them. Heeney will be a late starter as he recovers from glandular fever.

Geelong’s greatest concern is how easily they are scored against from turnovers in their forward line, which regularly featured three talls.

Taller players are notorious for not being able to put on ground-ball pressure and it left the Cats highly exposed too often last season. Tom Hawkins is a permanent forward so he needs to lift in this area.

Sydney can push Lance Franklin up the ground to add another string to its bow. Picture: Phil Hillyard

Another hole to fill is that left by the retirement of one of the greatest halfbacks in history, Corey Enright, though Zach Toohey may fit the bill.

Hawthorn will remain around the mark.

Tom Mitchell and Jaeger O’Meara have to be better than the best and fairest (Sam Mitchell) and runner-up (Jordan Lewis) players they are replacing for the Hawks to improve.

They are naturally quicker, but their ball use is different. Sam Mitchell is one of the best players for his accumulation of stats and the ability to bring his teammates into the game.

Without him, the dynamics around the ball will change for the Hawks and the team will need to adjust quickly.

Jarryd Roughead’s return from cancer and captaincy will provide a morale boost.

Greater Western Sydney and West Coast should be finals walk-ups. They each have a distinct home ground advantage.

Any reasonable non-Victorian team will win 80 per cent of its games at home. It generally takes 12 wins to make the final eight.

GWS will pick up where it left off last year and is a possible a top-four contender. But talent alone will not win a flag. Its defence was inadequate last year, losing to West Coast and the Dogs by under a kick when games had appeared to be won.

Tom Mitchell is big pick up for the Hawks but a loss to the Swans. Picture: Wayne Ludbey

Forward and back the Crows were very good last season, but its midfield was slow and unaccountable.

Coach Don Pyke was a defensive player and is a defensive coach, so he will certainly be looking for an improvement in defence, but particularly in the centre where the pressure needs to drastically increase for Adelaide to be a genuine contender.

The questions on West Coast are: how will it cope without the injured Nic Naitanui and how many games will Sam Mitchell and Drew Petrie play and where on the ground?

North Melbourne has lost a lot of experience, which leaves it highly vulnerable to dropping out of the mix. North’s season could be determined by Round 4 after tough clashes against West Coast, Geelong, GWS and the Western Bulldogs.

I’m reluctantly tipping North and Adelaide as the top-eight casualties of 2017.

Picking their replacements is tough.

I’m going to say it will be St Kilda, Melbourne or Collingwood. Possibly all three will sneak into the finals.

Their supporters have every reason to believe they will make it. They each have the right ingredients — youth, pace, skill, talent and hunger.

Pre-season form of all three has been encouraging. It will come down to how they each start the season and injuries.

Giving St Kilda a real top-eight look is its backline with the inclusion of Nathan Brown and Jake Carlisle.

The Saints have the height to combat taller and more dynamic forward lines.

The key for Melbourne is Jesse Hogan, who finally seems to be on track. Tom McDonald down back is so important.

The addition of Jake Carlisle can lift the Saints into the top eight. Picture: Getty Images

And with enormous potential, Christian Petracca could change the dynamics of the Demons’ mids and forward line.

Once again high expectation is held for Collingwood’s Darcy Moore, while Adam Treloar is a potential Brownlow medallist. Ben Reid back from injury will tighten the Magpies’ backline.

The biggest heartbreak will be Richmond — again. I just can’t see the Tigers turning their fortunes around quickly.

Gold Coast has had no consistency, or luck, to threaten the top sides, while Port Adelaide doesn’t appear to have the manpower. The Brisbane Lions and Carlton still have a way to go.

I have severe doubts Fremantle will get out of the bottom four.

Essendon fans might be in for another tough season as John Worsfold aims to get the balance right in merging the banned Bombers with players from last season. They’ll win some big games, but not enough.

Originally published as Mick Malthouse predicts who’ll make the AFL finals in 2017