How the 18 AFL coaches will feel the heat in Season 2019
How the 18 AFL coaches will start a new season dealing with expectation to deliver results — all measured by the Coaches Pressure Index.
Michelangelo Rucci
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No AFL coach lost his job at the end of Season 2018. But one - Alan Richardson at St Kilda - starts Season 2019 under intense pressure.
This week, as the AFL coaches savour their last free weekends until their seasons end (or they are sent packing), the “CPI” - coaches pressure index - is measured.
COACHES PRESSURE INDEX
DON PYKE
ADELAIDE
YEAR 4
CONTRACTED TO 2021
Don Pyke’s tenure at West Lakes is a tale of grand ambition with regrets: One fair year (keeping Adelaide in the top eight in 2016), one grand year (2017 with a grand final appearance), one very ordinary year (with the Crows falling to 12th while repeatedly shooting themselves in the foot).
But with a stronger pre-season - and no “witch doctors” messing with the players’ minds - and a happier tone at Adelaide, the Crows are a definite contender for a rebound to a top-four finish.
Pyke has a notable change in his presentation this year. He also can work in a much sounder - and less toxic - environment this season.
CPI: Safe
CHRIS FAGAN
BRISBANE
YEAR 3
CONTRACTED TO 2021
Step by step, Fagan — an AFL coach with no VFL-AFL playing record — has begun to change the Lions’ destiny with a sound program.
Fagan’s partnership with football boss David Noble is a project to watch. They have stop the exodus from player ranks. They have allowed the players to take ownership (and create critical pride) of their team. They have built a sounder playbook that has made the Lions stronger in defence — and now intend to make them more potent in attack.
Step by step ... with Fagan proving he is the sage to keep the new Lions on sound feet.
CPI: Safe
BRENDON BOLTON
CARLTON
YEAR 4
“ROLLING” CONTRACT
Patience is not a strong point with the Blues ... as club great Brett Ratten learned during his five-year rule as Carlton coach.
Bolton’s record reads - seven wins in 2016, six in 2017 and two last season. Perhaps some clubs do need to go backwards before they can step forwards.
Carlton’s task is to build far more than a competitive football team (and end a factional reputation in the board room). How much of this rests on Bolton’s shoulders?
CPI: Rising
NATHAN BUCKLEY
COLLINGWOOD
YEAR 7
CONTRACTED TO 2021
From the hot seat after repetitive top-eight misses to safety - and a two-year contract extension - with a grand final appearance last year. Nathan Buckley can now work with little distraction and with greater power of influence, particularly when his boss (president Eddie McGuire) could not be more supportive.
CPI: Very safe
JOHN WORSFOLD
ESSENDON
YEAR 4
CONTRACTED TO 2020
It is not just Essendon that needs “Woosha” to deliver the Bombers to the top-eight finals again - and with more than just one finals appearance as there was in 2017. The league needs it. The game needs it. There needs to be that “closure” to the pain Essendon has carried since the infamous 2012 supplements saga.
Worsfold has a good list. A very good list. He needs to find consistency in the Bombers’ work.
CPI: Rising
ROSS LYON
FREMANTLE
YEAR 7
CONTRACTED TO 2020
New rules suggest the AFL game will have its scoring average rise by three goals this season. And the Dockers — and Lyon — cannot be the champions of the defensive game and expect this theme to complete the “transition” from the AFL cellar to the top eight for the first time since 2015.
Lyon’s reputation as a tactical master will be either enhanced or challenged this season.
CPI: Red zone
CHRIS SCOTT
GEELONG
YEAR 9
CONTRACTED TO 2022
Outstanding home-and-away record, 72 per cent winning rate. But a contrasting count in finals - 3-6 (33 per cent) since being 3-0 in his debut season that delivered the 2011 AFL premiership to the Cats.
Recent contract extension emphasises how Geelong is quite sure of Scott’s work.
CPI: Very safe
STUART DEW
GOLD COAST
YEAR 2
CONTRACTED TO 2020
Big project ... one that goes well beyond the coach. Expectations are low; so is the pressure on the second-year coach.
CPI: Very low
LEON CAMERON
GWS
YEAR 5
CONTRACTED TO 2020
Leon Cameron watched the AFL grand final at the MCG in September — an event many thought the Giants could have played in — wondering which players he would have at the end of the October trade period.
This will be a fascinating season for GWS. Is there one last run at the AFL top order ... or will there be a fall? It will be a big test of Cameron’s coaching.
CPI: Rising
ALASTAIR CLARKSON
HAWTHORN
YEAR 15
CONTRACTED TO 2022
SAFEST coach in the game. How “Clarko” keeps himself at the cutting edge - and safe from burnt out - will be a study in modern coaching masters.
CPI: Very safe
SIMON GOODWIN
MELBOURNE
YEAR 3
ROLLING CONTRACT
It is all about expectation ... the pressure is from needing to deliver to growing hope from a supporter base that has not bought grand final tickets since 2000 and not celebrated a flag since 1964.
Goodwin’s life and football story has him well prepared to deal with such a burden.
CPI: Rising
BRAD SCOTT
NORTH MELBOURNE
YEAR 10
CONTRACTED TO 2020
Many have wondered if Scott should have sought to be a saviour of Queensland football at his home club of Brisbane or the challenging Gold Coast franchise. He wants to finish the challenge with the Kangaroos.
Scott has reworked the list. He is highly regarded for his tactical savvy ways. He is tough in his approach to the job. And he has talked up North Melbourne’s prospects this season by warning those who want to under-estimate the Kangaroos “at your peril”.
Now he has to live this script.
CPI: Rising
KEN HINKLEY
PORT ADELAIDE
YEAR 7
CONTRACTED TO 2021
Port Adelaide’s first month will set the tone for how the Power fans hold their belief in Hinkley or turn to agitators.
Hinkley has thrown away his playbook from 2017-18 — the one he declared delivered “boring” conservative football — to give the players more freedom to be more adventurous footballers. It is high risk considering the skill base at Alberton remains under question.
Sometimes teams go a step backwards to move forwards when there is a significant change in the gameplan. Hinkley cannot afford such (not even with a long-term contract).
CPI: Red zone
DAMIEN HARDWICK
RICHMOND
YEAR 10
CONTRACTED TO 2021
Leigh Matthews thought he had a “job for life” when he ended Collingwood’s long premiership drought in 1990. He didn’t.
Hardwick is working with job security no Richmond coach has known since Tom Hafey in the 1970s ... and that had a Matthews-type ending too.
Hardwick could deliver a better storyline that he did in 2017.
CPI: Very low
ALAN RICHARDSON
ST KILDA
YEAR 6
CONTRACTED TO 2020
Under the most pressure of all 18 AFL coaches. And so much of this is from St Kilda — not Richardson — misjudging the state of its list.
Richardson cannot afford to lose the season opener against Gold Coast at home, so the pressure is on early.
CPI: Super hot
JOHN LONGMIRE
SYDNEY
YEAR 9
CONTRACTED TO 2020
Longmire’s assertive ways might need to be modified if the Swans are to avoid the appearance of a team suffering from battle fatigue.
The annual habit of locking Sydney as a top-eight certainty in pre-season predications has broken. Longmire will make a strong study on how coaches - even premiership coaches - respond when their teams lose their super powers.
CPI: Rising
ADAM SIMPSON
WEST COAST
YEAR 6.
CONTRACTED TO 2022
Premiership coach ... the only pressure is living up to the title.
CPI: Very low
LUKE BEVERIDGE
W BULLDOGS
YEAR 5.
CONTRACTED TO 2020
Read the Damien Hardwick summary ... and appreciate Beveridge’s ability to draw the best from his players.
CPI: Very low
michelangelo.rucci@news.com.au
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