Can Geelong Cats stop high-flying Sydney Swans in AFL semi-final

THE Advertiser’s Chief Football Writer Michelangelo Rucci looks at the AFL semi-final match-up between the flying Swans and the stumbling Cats.

THE Advertiser’s Chief Football Writer Michelangelo Rucci looks at the AFL semi-final match-up between the flying Swans and the stumbling Cats.

SEMI-FINAL

GEELONG v SYDNEY

MCG, Friday, 7.20pm

GEELONG

1. ARE THE CATS DONE?

IT always happens to the qualifying final losers - there are major doubts cast on their capabilities after one game, even though Geelong did rank second with a 15-6-1 record in the home-and-away season.

But that was March-August - and this is September when Geelong has won just two finals out of nine since the Cats’ 2011 premiership triumph against Collingwood.

WILL GIANTS BOUNCE BACK OR EAGLES SHOCK AGAIN

Still there is the need to disprove the team relies too much on Brownlow Medallist Patrick Dangerfield and captain Joel Selwood; that there is a serious lack of pace; that there is now confusion on how to use switch-hitter Harry Taylor and that Daniel Menzel (a surprise axing before the qualifying final loss to Richmond) is the X-factor needed in September.

A straight-sets exit from the major round would be a major failure for Geelong.

Zak Jones of the Swans and Tom Hawkins the Cats wrestle during Round 20.

2. WILL CATS FEEL AT HOME?

THEY are back at the MCG, rather than at Kardinia Park (where Sydney won the most recent meeting between these finalists).

The G should have Cats supporters dominating the seats (unlike the scene for their “home” qualifying final against the Tiger army).

The umpires should understand Geelong captain Joel Selwood is not leading the “away” team and does not get first call on the toss of the coin for choice of ends.

But will Geelong understand how to play the wide MCG? There have been just two Cats-Swans matches at the MCG in the 220-game rivalry - the 1914 semi-final won by South Melbourne by seven points and last year’s preliminary final won by Sydney on a fast start by 37 points.

MEDICAL ROOM

C. Guthrie (calf) 3 weeks

J. Kolodjashnij (calf) 3 weeks

J. Cowan (Achilles) season

C. Gregson (foot) season

L. McCarthy (hip/groin) season

Q. Narkle (knee) season

SYDNEY

1. DO THEY BRING THE HEAT?

SYDNEY has established its reputation as the AFL’s hardest unit with the No. 1 ranking for contested football (and 18th of 18 for the uncontested game).

So if the Swans bring the “heat” to this knockout final there will be the dream match-up between Adelaide and Sydney in the preliminary final at Adelaide Oval on Friday week.

Contested football is one key pointer to how the Swans play, but the more relevant note is the “congested” football the Swans bring to suffocate their opponents’ need for time and space.

Sydney has won five of the past six against Geelong by breaking down the Cats’ chains of free-flowing ball movement.

Joel Selwood of the Cats is tackled by Lance Franklin of the Swans.

2. WILL ‘BUDDY” BLITZ?

HE is ominous form with match-defining performances in the past month that delivered the Coleman Medal - as the AFL leading goalkicker - and have made Sydney even more difficult to contain in attack.

But Swans power forward Lance “Buddy” Franklin has not tormented the Geelong defence in his past three games scoring just 1.1 in the Round 20 game at Kardinia Park, 2.0 in the preliminary final at the MCG last year and 1.1 in the Round 16 win at Kardinia Park last season.

Franklin has played more games against Geelong (21) than any other AFL rival, but has a losing record against the Cats (9-12).

If there is ever a moment for “Buddy” to blitz, it is in September.

And the focus on Franklin certainly has made Callum Sinclair and Dean Towers leave a mark on opposition defences.

MEDICAL ROOM

L. Franklin (thigh) test

R. Fox (ankle) test

D. Cameron (shoulder) season

THE ODDS

MATCH

Geelong $3.00

Sydney $1.40

FLAG

Geelong $17

Sydney $4.25

LAST TIME

Sydney 16.11 (107) d Geelong 8.13 (61)

Round 20 at Kardinia Park

EARLY CALL

Sydney by 29 points