Adelaide needs to find 13 wins to be sure of a fourth consecutive AFL finals series; Port Adelaide needs 15 for top-four finish
PREDICTIONS on the numbers needed for a top-four finish and a place in the AFL’s finals in September leave big challenges for Adelaide and Port Adelaide. See how Champion Data guru Ted Hopkins sees the final ladder.
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SO what is the “magic number” to September’s top-eight AFL finals?
Or magic numbers as the Crows seek to salvage their bewildering season with a rush on eighth spot and Port Adelaide chases a top-four finish for the first time since that nightmare ending in 2007?
It is generally considered that 12 wins from 22 home-and-away games make for the cut-off to the AFL top eight. But this is no guarantee.
Melbourne, with 12 wins, missed eighth spot to West Coast last season by percentage — 0.49 to be precise. The year before, St Kilda — with 12 wins — also missed by percentage to North Melbourne (but by a far more significant count, 105.22 to 95.69).
In 2015, the Kangaroos made the cut-off to eighth spot at 13 wins.
In 2014, the race to September demanded 14 wins. Fremantle and North Melbourne had 14-8 records to take seventh and eighth spots ahead of St Kilda with 12 wins.
So there is no exact sign post to the AFL finals.
Champion Data founder Ted Hopkins, the Carlton premiership player who turned statistics into the analytical tool that overwhelms the AFL today, has eighth spot decided on 13 wins this season — a throwback to 2015.
This 13-win cut-off point demands the 11th-ranked Crows, currently 7-7, win six of their remaining eight games starting with Friday night’s grand final rematch with AFL premiers and league leaders Richmond at the MCG.
Adelaide’s fixture has Richmond (MCG), Geelong (home), Brisbane (Gabba), Melbourne (home), Showdown 45 with Port Adelaide, GWS (Canberra), North Melbourne (home) and Carlton (Etihad Stadium).
Hopkins’ analysts have the bottom half of the AFL finals chart filled by Collingwood in fifth spot after 14 wins and Melbourne, Geelong and Hawthorn separated by percentage with their 13 wins from sixth to eighth.
They have Greater Western Sydney in the uneasy ninth position with 12 wins and a draw; North Melbourne 10th with 12 wins and Adelaide remaining 11th with 11 wins, a fall to 2014 standards when the Crows last missed the finals — also with 11 wins.
A top-four finish for Port Adelaide (10-4) is just as tricky to predict. Last season, fourth spot required 15 wins; the previous three seasons, the cut-off was 16 victories.
This has the Power winning five of its remaining eight matches against St Kilda (home), Fremantle (Perth Stadium), GWS (home), Western Bulldogs (Ballarat), Showdown 45 with the Crows, West Coast (home), Collingwood (MCG) and Essendon (home).
Hopkins’ analysts have the top four settled with Richmond (18 wins), Sydney, Port Adelaide and West Coast split from second to fourth with 15 wins.
In a season of extraordinary results — to quote Power assistant coach Brendon Lade, the “evenness of the competition is even” — predicting the dance cards in September’s top-eight finals compares with working on shifting sand.
But to be sure, Adelaide needs to target at least 13 wins to make its fourth consecutive finals series. Port Adelaide should be searching for 16 wins to seek second spot — and stay on the opposite side of the finals draw from Richmond.
HOPKINS’ FINAL AFL LADDER PREDICTIONS
Richmond 18-4 139 per cent
Sydney 16-6 118
Port Adelaide 16-6 116
West Coast 16-6 116
Collingwood 14-8 114
Melbourne 13-9 121
Geelong 13-9 121
Hawthorn 13-9 113
GWS 12-1-8 110
N Melbourne 12-10 111
Adelaide 11-11 101
Essendon 11-11 96
Fremantle 8-14 84
W Bulldogs 8-14 78
St Kilda 6-1-15 79
Brisbane 5-17 86
Carlton 4-18 70
Gold Coast 4-18 63
michelangelo.rucci@news.com.au