Was Nathan Buckley right about Tom Mitchell’s influence on games?
Nathan Buckley was savaged in 2018 for saying that Tom Mitchell didn’t hurt teams with his disposals. But the numbers tell the real story, writes Mark Robinson.
Mark Robinson
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Nathan Buckley provocatively suggested Tom Mitchell’s 54-possession game in Round 1, 2018, didn’t hurt the Pies.
It was a cannonball comment and Buckley was savaged for it.
“He just finds a way and keeps getting to the pill, (but) if I said he wasn’t hurting us a lot, would that make sense?” Buckley said.
Mitchell received three votes from the umpires that day and, later in the season, won the Brownlow Medal.
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On Saturday, Mitchell had 41 disposals for Hawthorn against West Coast.
Neither Hawks coach Alastair Clarkson nor Eagles coach Adam Simpson named Mitchell in their combined votes for the best seven players on the ground.
His 273 metres gained from those 41 possessions — 10 kicks and 31 handballs — worked out at seven metres a possession.
It was Mitchell’s third lowest metres-gained game this season behind his 233m in Round 3 (24 disposals) and 171m in Round 2 (37 disposals).
With hindsight, Buckley’s summation that Mitchell doesn’t slay the opposition by possessions was more right than wrong.
Mitchell is a very good player.
But a great player?
On this year’s performances he’s not in the realm of Dustin Martin, Christian Petracca, Marcus Bontempelli, Clayton Oliver, Travis Boak, Ollie Wines, Hugh McCluggage, Jack Macrae, Sam Walsh, Touk Miller, David Mundy and Zach Merrett as examples of influential midfielders.
Mitchell’s career can be viewed as pre-broken leg v post-broken leg, although the discussion about how much he hurts the opposition traverses both sides of his time out of the game.
He missed all of the 2019 season after breaking his leg in January of that season.
He’s the same player as he was pre-injury in terms of ball accumulation, but as the numbers suggest, not the same player in terms of where he gathers possessions.
Of course, if Mitchell has the ball it means the opposition doesn’t and that’s always a plus, but the game has always been about influence.
Most observers would rate Mitchell as a stoppage king — that he is quick of mind and has sharp hands, and is a see-ball get ball type, that last trait perhaps not always ideal in a team stoppage set up.
But Mitchell’s game in 2021 is different to his output of 2018, in that he’s become more of an outside player with those inside weapons.
His clearances have halved compared to 2018 and his contested possessions have dropped.
His contested possession rate is at 33 per cent which is the lowest of his career and the fifth lowest of all midfielders this year behind teammate Liam Shiel, Melbourne’s James Jordan, Essendon’s Merrett and St Kilda’s Seb Ross.
In contrast, Mitchell’s average metres per game is 313, while Merrett’s is 464.
The best contested possession winners are led by Suns’ Hugh Greenwood (74 per cent), from Taylor Adams, Tom Liberatore, Nat Fye and Rory Sloane.
Mitchell’s contested game is miles from that group.
Clearly, that’s how coach Alastair Clarkson wants him to play.
The issue is Mitchell’s possession on the outside don’t cut the opposition deeply.
Outside players are generally required to run, carry, break lines and take metres.
Again, his weapons as a footballer are not usually associated with being an outside player.
It poses two questions: Is Tom Mitchell hurting the opposition? And is Tom Mitchell hurting Hawthorn on the outside?
In 2018, he and the Hawks had the likes of Isaac Smith, Tom Scully and Ricky Henderson helping in that regard.
AFL great Greg Williams says Mitchell needs support.
“I haven’t watched him as close (this year) and the Hawks are battling, too, aren’t they,’’ he said.
“He needs help around him. There’s not many players he can handball to and can run.
“The Hawks aren’t anywhere near as good as they were and he needs support and run around him. It’s difficult.
“Is he getting more chip kicks? I don’t know. And are they letting him have it?’’
Williams may be right. Geelong’s Mark O’Connor is the only player to go head to head for a whole game with Mitchell this year. Todd Viney went half a game with him in Round 5.
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Originally published as Was Nathan Buckley right about Tom Mitchell’s influence on games?
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