Nathan Buckley is coaching for his career again but circumstances are different this time, writes Mark Robinson

Former Collingwood recruiter Matt Rendell says it’s finals or bust for Nathan Buckley. But does he want to continue beyond 2021? Mark Robinson ponders a different question.

Matthew Rendell pondered the question for barely a second.

Coaching for his survival, what does Nathan Buckley have to achieve this season to ensure another contract at Collingwood?

A former Collingwood recruiter under Buckley, Rendell said matter-of-factly: “If they miss the finals, I don’t think he’s coaching no matter what happens, no matter what the injuries are.’’

The more curious question is, Rendell said: “Does he want his coaching career saved? No one ever asks that question.

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“He might say he’s had enough and he will do media and then might come back coaching. He might’ve already made the decision. I doubt it, but he might not want it saved.

“If he’s thinking that way, he’ll operate with a more positive, happy attitude. That’s what you would be doing, you know, I’m going to enjoy this last year. If the freakish thing happens and we win the flag, or get close again, I might change my thinking.

“But right here, right now, he might be thinking it doesn’t matter and it’s a good attitude to be taking in.’’

This is Buckley’s 10th season and he is not contracted beyond that.

He survived a similar cutthroat situation at the end of 2017. That time he was offered a new deal and, tantalisingly, the Pies almost won the flag in 2018.

But this year is immensely different.

Nathan Buckley will head into his 10th season as Collingwood coach without a contract beyond this year. Picture: Getty Images

The winds of change at Collingwood have been at hurricane-force this off-season.

The salary cap calamity led to a player fire sale during the trade period; the Heritier Lumumba situation continues to hover over the club; experienced footy boss Geoff Walsh retired; and, the ‘Do Better’ report landed and Eddie McGuire quit.

Will the winds be blowing a cold, bitter blast at the end of the season?

Directly, what will play out for one of the club’s favourite generals.

While Rendell said it was finals or kaput, former St Kilda coach Grant Thomas was not so certain.

He argued that Buckley spent five years learning to coach and in his 10th year was best placed to continue.

Thomas was sacked after five and half seasons leading the Saints.

Unlike Buckley, Thomas never got to coach to save his career because he was going to be sacked even if the Saints won the flag in 2006.

Win-loss didn’t get him; he won 14 games in that final year. — it was personalities and power plays that fatally wounded Thommo.

It’s probably why he argued that it was too simplistic to say, ‘If Buckley doesn’t make September, he should be removed’.

“Whether they’re coached as well as they can be or if they’re getting the best of themselves, I wouldn’t be in a position to know that because I don’t know Bucks all that well,” Thomas said.

“It’s easy to stand at a distance and look at their performances and pick holes.

“Until you’re in there to see what his strategy is, his management skills are like, his leadership, it’s difficult to tell.

“But you can only assume Nathan Buckley is an improving coach and he’s a reasonably astute coach and you can only assume that after 10 years.”

Thomas was intrigued about what direction Collingwood’s board would take.

“Sometimes boards get panicky, sometimes boards under pressure force themselves into a position to make a change because it takes pressure away from them,” he said.

Buckley consoles Brodie Grundy after the Magpies went agonisingly close to winning the premiership in 2018. Picture: Getty Images

“If they maintain the incumbent and it’s not successful, they are seen as failures.

“It’s going to be an interesting season. Clearly, the players took a stand against what was happening, Eddie the absolute godfather of Collingwood, well, it led to his demise. Who knows, Collingwood has had a pivot.

“But you don’t throw a guy out until he has had 10 years’ experience.”

This will be Buckley’s 10th year and it doesn’t have to be said he is without a premiership.

“Mick Malthouse went 16 years without a premiership, I think Brad Scott nine years without a premiership, that doesn’t mean they’re not good coaches, it means they are incredibly difficult to win,’’ Thomas said.

“The truly great clubs have great solidarity, great connection, confidence, decision making, courage and patience with the person they appoint. They tend to stick with them and follow through to the end.”

Two points here: When is ever the end? And is there solidarity at Collingwood?

Thomas said you had to be in the inner sanctum to know if there were solidarity.

“I don’t know whether Buckley got to coach 10 years because of Eddie, or whether it was based on his own merits,” he said.

“As far as I can see, Eddie was a marvellous supporter for Nathan Buckley and that’s helped to this point in time. Whether that continues only time will tell.”

Rendell said: “No doubt Eddie was his ally, Eddie’s gone, and I don’t know where the other board members sit with Bucks.”

Thomas pondered who would be in a position to replace Buckley.

A suggestion was Ross Lyon, who replaced Thomas at St Kilda.

“How many years did he coach ... 13 years? That’s a guy 13 years without a premiership and you’re getting rid of a guy 10 years without a premiership. I don’t know if that’s smart,” Thomas said.

Eddie McGuire (right) was Buckley’s biggest ally. Picture: Michael Klein

Pressure can be like hovering over an abyss and, for Buckley, it’s about how much he allows it to break him down.

It’s expected there will be almost weekly probing into his future, amplified because it’s Bucks and Collingwood, and, of course, there was the summer of discontent and disconnect.

Rendell said he was intrigued to see how Buckley would handle the season ahead.

“How much pressure is on him is how much pressure does he want to be on him,” Rendell said.

“He can just take everything with a grain of salt, he can just coach, he can do everything with a smile, he can communicate with everyone in the club and the players.

“There will be something in the media every week and he can get his back up, but he should take that with a pinch of salt.

“Because if you start to question everyone who questions him in the media, and he gets narky about it or delivers poor responses, it’s only going to make it worse.

“If it happens to be the last year at Collingwood, then enjoy yourself.

“When we say pressure, maybe he’s not going to care about that. Maybe he’s going to coach with a free spirit this year.’’

Thomas said pressure was self imposed and the disruptions over the off-season, although volcanic, can be shelved.

“Collingwood has been very good at handling it in the past and you’ve got to expect they will handle this challenge now and move on,” Thomas said.

“This whole thing about getting rid of the coach and rejuvenating the joint is very simplistic. It means to me people don’t understand the fundamentals of club dynamics.

“If you think getting rid of one person and putting another person in and it’s the holy grail on the road to success ... I just think it’s fraught with danger.’’

The pressure is certain to be on Buckley this year. Picture: Getty Images

Rendell has noted change in Buckley — and his game style — since the 2018 campaign.

Whereas Buckley in 2018 played attacking football and stepped back from being a strong voice in every aspect of the football department, the Pies have, in the ensuing years, adopted a defensive mindset on the field clearly led by the coach.

At the Collingwood AGM earlier this month, it was revealed Buckley had presented his game plan to the board.

Time will tell if it remains defensive or he will redeploy Collingwood of 2018.

“The last time he had year to go on his contact, he changed everything about how they played,’’ Rendell said.

“They played exciting footy like Brisbane, Richmond and Port Adelaide are doing right now.

“That’s the only reason they beat West Coast in Perth in last year’s finals. They had no choice, they weren’t winning any other way. They took the game on.

“I just hope he throws caution to the wind, I know it’s not in his nature, but I hope he throws caution to the wind.

“They are capable of making the top four. But you can’t survive off eight goals to seven.”

In response to the events of the summer, in response to speculation about his future, and what he had to achieve to attain a new contact, Rendell said Buckley cannot play the victim.

“He can be a victim or he can be bold,” Rendell said.

“Personally, I think he loves the power and control. Does that make sense? He’s never been able to let go, bar one year, and it was the most successful year he’s had.

“For the life of me, it baffles me, why would you go back to defence and control when you let it go for a year and you had the best year.

“He showed what he could do in ’18.”

Originally published as Nathan Buckley is coaching for his career again but circumstances are different this time, writes Mark Robinson