Why I think the Crows can bounce back in 2019 but it could be another tough year for the Power
Predicting the top eight of a new AFL season is an impossible task. Some will rise and some will fall — but in 2019 it is the Crows who seem best positioned to bounce back into the finals.
Mark Bickley
Don't miss out on the headlines from Mark Bickley. Followed categories will be added to My News.
- Power to show off new six-pack
- Ryder test cheek, channels Dunstall
- Tredrea: Why we need to celebrate all the greats
- Seeds sown for Jones to debut
What are the chances?
Predicting the top eight for the upcoming season only has one certainty. That is, it won’t be right.
Limited pre-season matches, injuries, form, new rules and new recruits how would you know? That’s why its hard to go past the well performed teams from 2018, West Coast, Collingwood, Melbourne and Richmond, the top four from last year.
While many would say that is a safe bet, almost the opposite is true. Over the past 18 seasons the top four has remained the same from one season to the next only once, in 2009.
What else that stood out over that period was in 15 of the 18 seasons, a team from outside of the top eight forced it’s way into the top four.
I can already sense Port and Crows fans warming to this idea, but it gets even better. Five times during this period two teams from outside the finals made their way into the top half of the eight, close to 30 per cent, including Melbourne and Collingwood last year, coming from ninth and 14th respectively.
When you look at teams who finished outside the eight in 2018, North, Port, Essendon and Adelaide all finished on 12 wins and are clearly the most likely to make the ascension.
With 15 wins proving good enough to get you into the top four over the previous two seasons, simplistically, who out of the aforementioned teams can find three more wins in this year?
Let’s start with the ninth placed Kangaroos. Jared Polec is the most notable recruit and exactly the style of player they need to add to their ample midfield grunt.
Jasper Pittard and Aaron Hall also fall into that category but neither has the class or consistency of Polec.
The down side is the retirement of Jarrad Waite and the lack of depth in the key position roles. Robbie Tarrant has already had a shoulder operation and with Majak Daw out indefinitely, I can’t see North bridging the gap significantly on the teams who finished above them last season.
Port Adelaide finished in 10th spot and with the exit of Chad Wingard and Polec, (who both finished in the top six of the club’s best and fairest), puts them behind the eight ball.
Power fans should be buoyed by the arrival of Connor Rozzee, Zak Butters and Xavier Duursma, all serious talent, but that investment is still a year or two away from paying real dividends.
The inclusion of Ryan Burton and Scott Lycett helps, but delayed starts to Ollie Wines, Charlie Dixon, Hamish Hartlett and Jarrod Lienert along with a tough draw early, (Melbourne, Richmond and the Eagles in the first five rounds), has the Power treading water with around 12 wins again.
Eleventh placed Essendon are favoured by many to be the big improver. After a disastrous first eight rounds that yielded just two wins, the Bombers finished the season strongly with 10 wins from 14 games, minus some key players.
Add GWS gun Dylan Shiel to the midfield, the expectant return of Joe Daniher and those extra three wins look very achievable.
I have them in the top eight but not at the pointy end and even that has me worried on what we’ve seen so far. JLT form is hardly a reliable indicator but they haven’t impressed at all in the two matches played. Daniher is injured again and missing the first month at least, so I’m far from convinced that they are the real deal.
Which brings me to the 12th placed Crows. Bias aside, Adelaide looks to have a compelling argument in gaining ground on the rest of the competition. With almost the whole list having done all the summer training, this is a stark contrast to 2018’s horror pre-season, which saw them start the year underdone and under pressure.
It went from bad to worse. The year ended with no games out of Brad Crouch, two for Brodie Smith, Rory Sloane missed 10 games, Taylor Walker eight, Tom Lynch five, Sam Jacobs and Eddie Betts both looked fragile and played well below expectation.
If nothing else happened except these guys returning to fitness and form, that would almost be enough. Add to that the opportunities and extra responsibility given to Tom Doedee and Wayne Milera. Both now look like potential A-graders and at 22 years of age and entering their fourth seasons, are right in the sweet spot.
The Crows lowly finished last year also improves their 2019 draw, which is why I have them with the nominal three extra wins required to propel them into the top four.
Before Crows fans get too carried away, 15 of the 18 seasons many have seen a team rise from outside the eight and into the top four, but only twice have they gone all the way, Geelong in 2007 and Richmond in 2017. And finally, Carlton fans this one’s for you: The West Coast Eagles rose from last place in 2010 to have 17 wins in 2011 and made it into a preliminary final, now that would be one for the history books!
Bicks’ shock selection move for Power final blockbuster
Port Adelaide are flying, having won their past six matches going into Friday’s preliminary final, but Mark Bickley says the Power need to make a change for the Tigers clash.
Why Hinkley’s heroes could be better than ‘04 Power pioneers
Mark Bickley knows a thing or two about winning flags, having captained two Grand Final wins at Adelaide and he believes Port Adelaide’s current incarnation has eerie similarities to the 2004 Power side that claimed the Power’s first premiership.