David King: Don’t blame Matthew Nicks, Adelaide must embrace a rebuild
It’s unfair to judge Matthew Nicks as a coach and hold him responsible for Adelaide’s plight, writes David King, who has assessed the Crows’ midfield and is horrified by what he sees.
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In the COVID-impacted 2020 season Matthew Nicks is going to a gunfight with a knife — a plastic one.
I’m not an apologist for Nicks, nor do I have any great affection for the Adelaide Crows, but at ground zero of a complete rebuild, balance is required when assessing performances and results of this proud football club.
The AFL has always been and will continue to be a win/loss industry.
Therefore, sitting winless, rusted to the bottom of the ladder after 10 rounds brings significant heat.
But who’s responsible for their plight? Matthew Nicks? Not this year.
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Adelaide enjoyed its period of premiership contention between 2015-2017 making off-field mistakes prior and past that window which now renders success improbable, if not impossible, in the next short term.
In the AFL you only get a four-to-five-year window to win an AFL premiership, but once that opportunity is lost, a reset is imperative.
Fight against that inevitable rebuild if you chose, but be prepared for perennial mid-table mediocrity a la North Melbourne, Essendon and Port Adelaide over the past few years.
Statistically the Crows are rated 18th in the league in all major facets culminating in points for and points against.
The clear and obvious concern is contested football and clearances in the true midfield where Adelaide has been mauled.
The Adelaide Crows lack of midfield depth is frightening.
Nicks has inherited the poorest midfield group I’ve seen in 20 years.
What was the succession plan post Rory Sloane?
Given an extended look without Sloane and Brad Crouch for a month or so will expose all warts.
What’s left?
An almost uncompetitive group at clearances recording an average of minus-10 clearances per game between the forward 50 arcs — the true midfield.
Matt Crouch is shouldering the load as Nicks is forced to utilise All-Australian half-back flankers Rory Laird and Brodie Smith as midfield support surrounded by a host of inexperienced youngsters riding shotgun.
Players such as Ben Keays, Chayce Jones, Tyson Stengle and even Harry Schoenberg.
Nicks has played an AFL-high eight debutants and used 37 players across the course of the season, another AFL high.
All players are getting an opportunity to impress while being assessed on their long-term viability.
Expect nothing to change over the next three-to-four weeks.
Nicks will wear the criticism but again this “plastic knife in a gun fight” midfield won’t be getting the job done anytime soon.
These midfield personnel issues highlight why all major awards are exclusively won by midfielders.
A poor midfield compromises every other component of your team.
It doesn’t allow teams to play their way — Nicks so far hasn’t been able to unveil to the football public the way he wants the Crows to play.
Given their midfield issues, the Crows defence has been subjected to a heavy workload not only defensively, as they’re constantly under stress, but they’re required to play a counter-punching attack when in possession of the football.
The hardest facet in AFL football is to move the ball effectively, without turnover cost, the full length of the field.
The current problem with transitioning the football from the defence end is their tall contested marking options.
This has never been Taylor Walker’s strong suit and the intercept marking numbers by the Crows opponents suggests that youngsters Elliott Himmelberg, Bill Frampton and Darcy Fogarty have significant work to do.
The Crows play long, down the boundary line the fifth least in the competition — this means they should not be conceding the third most intercept marks against them in the midzone of the field.
This is another reason why the ball resides in the Crows’ defensive end of the field.
The fact that all 2020 training sessions are significantly impacted by the Covid rules ensuring less contest training and minimal player numbers on the training track means it’s highly unlikely to have any significant developmental improvement outside of game day.
Nicks won’t protect the scoreboard and minimise the heavy losses by putting extra players behind the ball, playing slow, wide boring football but he will continue to develop the young talent and absorb the pain that losses bring.
The football media often have conveniently short memories.
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The Brisbane Lions were like this in 2017, despite the fact they won on five occasions, it was a 22 game season with an unimpacted training program without “hub life” and compressed game to game breaks.
The Lions were a poor contested possession and clearance team with Tom Rockliff, Dayne Beams, Dayne Zorko and the like but since that point their trading and recruiting has given coach Chris Fagan a chance.
Fagan has provided council and support to Nicks as the coaching fraternity rally when one is in need.
I would not be shocked if the Adelaide rebuild followed a similar course to the Brisbane Lions.
The Crows will make tough calls on their list at seasons end, but in the short to medium term their small wins will not have four premiership points attached.
It will be moments from youngsters, winning quarters of football and effort-based competitiveness as a group that will be lauded.
The Crows aren’t bottom of the ladder because of the style of football or the methods implemented by Nicks.
This plummet to wooden spooner status was orchestrated out-of-hours, due to a complete lack of midfield assets recruited over the past 3-4 years.
Adelaide must stop treating the symptoms and start addressing the problems.
That ain’t Matthew Nicks.