Number Crunch: Upsets and close finishes highlight one of the most even AFL seasons ever
IF the AFL set out to create an even competition, it must be delighted with the results this season, which is proving to be the closest and most even for 89 years.Andrew Capel crunches the numbers
Andrew Capel
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IT is the year of the underdog and close finishes.
In one of the most remarkably even AFL seasons ever — one that has had tipsters pulling their hair out — there have been more upsets than ever recorded.
And not since 1928 have there been so many games decided by a goal or less up to Round 12.
“It’s just a fantastic, unpredictable season,’’ AFL legend Leigh Matthews said.
“It’s great for football that there are so many upsets and teams down the bottom of the ladder that are winning.’’
The ladder tells the tale.
Only one win separates fifth-placed Port Adelaide from 13th-ranked Gold Coast, while the 14th to 17th-placed sides are level on four wins.
Last year three clubs — Fremantle (four) and Brisbane and Essendon (three) — managed that many wins, or fewer, for the entire season.
“It’s the most even year I’ve ever seen,’’ said Port Adelaide captain Travis Boak, who is in his 11th season.
“It’s so even that if you’re not right on your game any side can knock you off on a given week.
“We’ve just seen Carlton (16th) beat GWS (second), which further emphasises that there are no easy games.’’
Betting agency UBET has recorded 39 upsets from 102 matches this season at a record percentage of 38 per cent.
This is 10 per cent higher than last year and 17 per cent higher than 2011.
Last season there was an average of 2.2 upsets per round.
This year the average has skyrocketed to 3.4.
West Coast (five times) and Collingwood and Sydney (four) have lost the most games as favourites while Essendon has been the upset specialist.
It has won 50 per cent of the matches (five) where it has started as the outsider, including the.
70-point thumping of the Power at Etihad Stadium last week.
All four of Carlton’s wins have come as the underdog.
Close results have illustrated the evenness of the competition.
There have been more games decided by a goal or less up to Round 12 than in any season for 89 years.
Seventeen games have been one-kick results — two fewer than in 1928 — and one more than in any other season at the halfway mark of the year.
Fourth-placed Richmond has been the big loser, having been defeated in all three games that have gone down to the wire — by five points to the Western Bulldogs, two points to Fremantle and three points to GWS.
Win all three and the Tigers would be sitting top.
In contrast, the Giants have won three of their four matches decided by a kick, while the Dockers, who are 10th with a 6-6 record, have won all three of their close games.
Lose them and they would be sitting second-bottom.
Asked whether class and know-how or good fortune decided close games, Matthews said: “I reckon 80 per cent of it is luck and 20 per cent is know-how’’.
While the Power has a poor record in close games — winning just three of the 13 that have been decided by 12 points or fewer in the past three years — Boak likes the evenness of the competition.
“I think it’s good for the AFL that it is so even,’’ he said.
“I’m sure a lot of that has to do with the equalisation rules and the fact that each club has great coaching staffs.
“I’m sure the fans are enjoying knowing that their side can win on any given week.’’
TOUGH YEAR FOR FAVOURITES
There has been more upset AFL results this year than any other season on record, with 39 of 102 matches being won by the underdog, while there has been more close finishes after 12 rounds than any season since 1928.
Time to be upset
AFL upsets since 2011
Most games lost as favourite
Most games won as underdog
Biggest upsets
North Melb. ($5) d Adelaide ($1.18) by 59 points, Rd 7
Fremantle ($5) d W. Bulldogs ($1.18) by 16 points, Rd 3
Carlton ($4.50) d GWS ($1.22) by 1 point, Rd 12
Carlton ($3.60) d Sydney ($1.30) by 19 points, Rd 6
Essendon ($3.40) d Geelong ($1.33) by 17 points, Rd 8
Essendon ($3.25) d Port ($1.36) by 70 points, Rd 12
Games decided by a goal or less up to R12
Games decided by a goal or less up to R12, 2017
andrew.capel@news.com.au
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