Number Crunch: It’s between The Hulk and The Extractor for AFL’s Rising Star award

AFL Rising Star judges face a tough task - separating an imposing power forward and a tough-as-nails midfielder who is already a force to be reckoned with. Andrew Capel looks at the stats.

THE power forward dubbed the next Jonathan Brown or the gun midfielder who has found himself being tagged in just his second AFL season?

With one home-and-away round remaining, this year’s AFL Rising Star award has become a race between two 20-year-olds - Melbourne’s new poster boy Jesse Hogan and Carlton’s Chris Judd replacement Patrick Cripps.

Strong on-baller Cripps has the numbers and is a slight favourite after he outshone Hogan when the Blues beat the Demons by 23 points in round 21.

He is averaging an elite 23.4 disposals a game, including 13.9 contested, along with 6.7 clearances and five tackles, illustrating his toughness and ballwinning ability.

“Extractor’’ Cripps could win Carlton’s best and fairest award in his first full season after managing just three games in his debut year in 2014.

“Hulk’’ Hogan, a fine physical specimen at 195cm and 101kg, has quickly emerged as arguably the game’s most promising key forward.

In his first season of AFL football - he missed most of 2014 with a back injury - Hogan has stood up like few talls before him.

He is averaging 13.1 disposals and 6.6 marks and kicked 41 goals - a remarkable achievement from a key forward in the AFL’s second-lowest scoring team.

With daylight between the top two and the rest of the Rising Star field, separating the pair has become the great debate.

Both have their admirers.

Carlton’s Patrick Cripps sprints away from Demon Bernie Vince. Picture: Michael Willson (Getty Images)

Stand-in Carlton coach John Barker is, not surprisingly, an advocate for his man.

Asked if Cripps deserved to become the Blues’ first Rising Star winner, Barker said: “Absolutely’’.

“He’s so strong in the contest and his ability to absorb pressure and absorb physicality and still get nice clean hands out to our players to advantage has been enormous,’’ Barker said.

Cripps ranks eighth in the AFL for average contested possessions and 11th for clearances.

The No. 13 pick at the 2013 national draft from East Fremantle has four 30-plus possession games - 33 against St Kilda in round four, 31 against Port Adelaide (round 12), 35 against Collingwood (round 19) and 30 against GWS (round 22).

He leads the Blues in contested possessions and clearances and ranks second in disposals and tackles.

Jesse Hogan grabs the ball in a marking conest with Docker Lee Spurr. Picture: Will Russell (Getty Images)

Hogan’s raw numbers aren’t as powerful as Cripps’ but his performance in making centre half-forward his own as a 20-year-old has been “unfathomable’’, according to former star Hawthorn key forward Dermott Brereton.

“It’s almost as if we haven’t seen that type of domination from someone that age before, maybe since the days of Wayne Carey,’’ the five-times Hawks premiership player said of Hogan.

Hogan - recruited as a 17-year-old access player as part of the GWS trade incentive rule at the end of 2012 - has kicked goals in 18 of the 19 matches he has played and hauled in at least six marks 13 times.

It is his ability to kick goals which could sway the voting his way.

Adelaide has two Rising Star nominations - exciting small forward Charlie Cameron, who has booted 27 goals, and rookie key defender Jake Lever, who has shown poise beyond his 19 years.

But neither of them has done enough to stop the Cripps-Hogan quinella.

Port Adelaide has not had a nominee this season.

To be eligible for the award, to be announced in Melbourne on Wednesday, a player must have been aged under 21 on January 1 this year and have not have played more than 10 games at the start of the season.

A panel of experts will vote on a five-to-one points system.

While Cripps is in line to become the first Carlton player to win the Ron Evans Medal - the prize awarded to the Rising Star victor - Hogan could become Melbourne’s second, following Jared Rivers in 2004.

THE STANDOUTS

This year’s AFL Rising Star award has become a race in two - Melbourne key forward Jesse Hogan and Carlton midfield hard nut Patrick Cripps. The 20-year-olds have enjoyed standout seasons and already rank as elite or above average in most of their key statistical categories, illustrating why they will street the field in voting on Wednesday.

JESSE HOGAN

PATRICK CRIPPS

(Rankings based on top 100 possession winners)

THE NOMINEES

R1 - Kamdyn McIntosh (Rich)

Games: 21

Rk pts: 64

Disp: 15.2

Uncont poss: 10.4

R2 - Mitch Honeychurch (WB)

Games: 9

Rk pts: 58

Disp: 12.1

Tk: 4.1

R3 - Isaac Heeney (Syd)

Games: 11

Rk pts: 65

Disp: 12.2

Goals: 1.2

R4 - Patrick Cripps (Carl)

Games: 19

Rk pts: 97

Disp: 23.4

Cont poss: 13.9

R5 - Adam Saad (GC)

Games: 16

Rk pts: 77

Disp: 17

Met gained: 302.4

R6 - Cory Gregson (Geel)

Games: 19

Rk pts: 54

Disp: 12.3

Score inv: 4.4

R7 - Billy Hartung (Haw)

Games: 18

Rk pts: 59

Disp: 16.8

Uncont poss: 12.6

R8 - Cam McCarthy (GWS)

Games: 19

Rk pts: 55

Disp: 8.9

Goals: 1.8

R9 - Jesse Hogan (Melb)

Games: 19

Rk pts: 76

Disp: 13.1

Goals: 2.2

R10 - Angus Brayshaw (Melb)

Games: 20

Rk pts: 65

Disp: 12.8

Tk: 4.7

R11 - Tim Broomhead (Coll)

Games: 11

Rk pts: 60

Disp: 14.5

Tk: 3.5

R12 - Tom Boyd (WB)

Games: 14

Rk pts: 52

Disp: 8.2

Goals: 1.1

R13 - Charlie Cameron (Adel)

Games: 19

Rk pts: 56

Disp: 10.4

Goals: 1.4

R14 - Jack Lonie (SK)

Games: 16

Rk pts: 56

Disp: 11.8

Score inv: 4.7

R15 - Dom Sheed (WC)

Games: 19

Rk pts: 71

Disp: 19.3

I50: 3.7

R16 - Touk Miller (GC)

Games: 21

Rk pts: 73

Disp: 16.9

Tk: 5.0

R17 - Jake Lever (Adel)

Games: 11

Rk pts: 67

Dis: 14.4

Intercept mk: 1.6

R18 - Harris Andrews (Bris)

Games: 18

Rk pts: 65

Disp: 11.6

Intercept mk: 2.2

R19 - Jackson Thurlow (Geel)

Games: 18

Rk pts: 71

Disp: 17.6

Intercept poss: 3.8

R20 - Jordan De Goey (Coll)

Games: 15

Rk pts: 59

Disp: 14.0

Tk: 5.1

R21 - Darcy Lang (Geel)

Games: 20

Rk pts: 60

Disp: 13.6

Score ass: 1.2

R22 - Ben Lennon (Rich)

Games: 8

Rk pts: 56

Disp: 11.6

Score ass: 1.0

THE ODDS

Patrick Cripps (Carl) $1.55

Jesse Hogan (Melb) $2.50

Dom Sheed (WC) $15

Isaac Heeney (Syd) $26

Charlie Cameron (Adel) $34

Angus Brayshaw (Melb) $51

Jake Lever (Adel) $51

Cam McCarthy (GWS) $51

Touk Miller (GC) $51

Adam Saad (GC) $51

Odds: Tabcorp.