Number Crunch: If Crows make finals, potent attack poised to make an impact, says Champion Data

IF the Crows can sneak into the top eight by season’s end, their potent and multi-faceted attack could prove a major force in the finals, reports Andrew Capel.

MELBOURNE, VICTORIA - AUGUST 15: Mark Baguley of the Bombers attempts to spoil Eddie Betts of the Crows the round 20 AFL match between the Essendon Bombers and the Adelaide Crows at Etihad Stadium on August 15, 2015 in Melbourne, Australia. (Photo by Darrian Traynor/AFL Media/Getty Images)

THEY have a titanic battle on their hands just to make the finals but if the Crows get there, don’t discount a serious September run.

Champion Data’s famed premiership chart ranks Adelaide, sitting eighth with three rounds to play, as the third-best placed team to win this year’s premiership.

While the chart doesn’t take into account current ladder positions – making the top four, getting the double chance and playing at home are all crucial components in winning a flag – it illustrates the Crows are on the verge of being in position to steal the premiership cup.

Thirteen of the past 15 premiers have sat in Champion Data’s “premiership standard’’ window.

The chart suggests teams have to score an average of 100 points or more and concede 86 points or fewer to win the flag.

This year there are only two clubs which sit in that category – second-placed West Coast and third-placed Hawthorn, which is chasing a third consecutive premiership.

But Adelaide, despite being out of the eight before its 112-point demolition of Essendon last Saturday, sits third.

It is scoring an average of 98.3 points a game and conceding 88.3 – just 1.7 per cent for and 2.3 per cent against outside the flag window. There are only two exceptions to the “premiership chart’’ rule.

Sydney averaged 90 points for in 2005 and Brisbane conceded 90 points in winning the first of three successive premierships in 2001.

Attack master Hawthorn leads both categories this year.

It is scoring at a league-high average of 111.5 points and conceding only 69.6 points (ranked second).

West Coast is scoring 103.9 points a game (ranked second) and coughing up just 70.1 points (third).

Taylor Walker ... key man in a potent forward line. Picture: Simon Cross

The Crows attack ranks third while their defensive rating is 11th, in what has been a low-scoring AFL season.

With a game against 17th-placed Brisbane at Adelaide Oval on Saturday night, Adelaide has a big chance to improve both its attacking and defensive categories.

“What sets Adelaide apart from most other clubs given where the game has been going defensively is its ability to attack and score heavily, which makes it a dangerous proposition come finals time,’’ said Champion Data analyst Daniel Hoyne.

“Its success in recent weeks has been built on a strong multi-pronged attack and its ability to impact the scoreboard, which sets it apart from most others.

“Most of its forwards rank as elite or above average for scoreboard impact and if you want success in finals you have to be able to score.’’

The Crows, whose 27.9 (171) against the Bombers was their equal-eighth highest score ever, are one of five clubs to boast at least five players who have kicked 20 or more goals this season.

This is despite Adelaide playing one fewer game than its rivals because of the cancellation of its round 14 clash against Geelong.

Pocket rocket Eddie Betts leads the way with 49 followed by captain Taylor Walker (44), tall Josh Jenkins (34), the agile Tom Lynch (25) and Betts’ small forward sidekick Charlie Cameron (24).

That’s 176 of Adelaide’s 258 goals between them. Not surprisingly, the Hawks and Eagles also have five 20-plus goalkickers, led by Luke Breust (Hawthorn, 45) and Josh Kennedy (West Coast, 64).

Gun Crows midfielder Patrick Dangerfield also is a major threat when resting up forward - or streaming out of the centre - having kicked 18 goals for the year.

Adelaide also has two players in the top 10 in the AFL for score assists. Lynch ranks first with 39 while Betts sits equal-10th with 28.

Josh Jenkins sprints away from Bomber Michael Hibberd. Jenkins has already bagged 34 goals this season. Picture: Michael Klein

ATTACK FORCE

Adelaide’s dynamic attack is leading the club’s charge to a first finals appearance in three years. After kicking 171 points in its 112-point demolition of Essendon last week, the Crows have rocketed into third position in the scoring charts — behind only flag favourites Hawthorn and West Coast.

Attacking numbers

Category	Hawthorn	West Coast	Adelaide
Points for	111.5 (1)	103.9 (2)	98.3 (3)
Scores per inside 50	50.0% (2)	51.5% (1)	47.6% (5)
Goals per inside 50	28.6% (1)	27.4% (3)	25.6% (6)
Clearance to score	26.8% (2)	28.3% (1)	25.2% (7)
Points from clearances	41.6 (1)	40.2 (2)	38.7 (4)
Opp turnover to score	26.1% (1)	24.0% (2)	22.3% (7)
Points from turnovers	65.9 (1)	58.8 (2)	55.2 (4)
Defensive 50 to inside 50	24.9% (1)	23.2% (2)	21.4% (6)
Defensive 50 to score	12.9% (1)	10.8% (5)	9.7% (8)
Kicks inside 50	49.1 (1)	46.3 (4)	48.3 (2)
Mark % from kicks i50	20.2% (10)	22.3% (6)	21.7% (8)
Retention % from kicks i50	46.9% (1)	42.3% (10)	43.9% (2)

Average scores for

Hawthorn	111.5
West Coast	103.9
Adelaide	98.3
North Melbourne	96.2
Western Bulldogs	94.6
Collingwood	90.2
Port Adelaide	88.6
Geelong	87.5
GWS	85.2
Fremantle	84.0
Sydney	84.8
Richmond	84.3
St Kilda	80.5
Gold Coast	74.8
Melbourne	71.6
Essendon	70.7
Carlton	70.5
Brisbane	69.5

FAB FIVE

Adelaide, Hawthorn and West Coast all have five players who have kicked 20 or more goals this season.

ADELAIDE

Eddie Betts 49

Taylor Walker 44

Josh Jenkins 34

Tom Lynch 25

Charlie Cameron 24

HAWTHORN

Luke Breust 45

Jack Gunston 41

Jarryd Roughead 34

Cyril Rioli 32

Paul Puopolo 26

WEST COAST

Josh Kennedy 64

Mark LeCras 32

Josh Hill 30

Jamie Cripps 28

Jack Darling 20

20-PLUS GOALKICKERS

North Melbourne 6

Adelaide 5

Hawthorn 5

West Coast 5

Port Adelaide 5

Collingwood 4

Fremantle 3

Geelong 3

W. Bulldogs 3

Carlton 2

Gold Coast 2

GWS 2

Melbourne 2

Richmond 2

St Kilda 2

Sydney 2

Essendon 1

Brisbane 0

THE NUMBER

98.3 - average points scored by Adelaide - ranked third in the league.