Number Crunch: Fremantle must apply clamp to slow freewheeling Hawthorn

FREMANTLE’S recipe for success against Hawthorn on Friday night is simple — apply the clamp and deny the Hawks its freewheeling style of game. Andrew Capel looks at the stats.

THE equation for Fremantle is simple.

To cause a boilover in Friday night’s preliminary final at Subiaco, the Dockers must play party pooper and apply their famous clamp.

The statistics illustrate that if Hawthorn is allowed to get its freewheeling, uncontested game going the home side will be in for a long and ugly night.

“Unless the Dockers can suddenly find a way to score more heavily they are going to have to play a totally defensive game to try to shut down the Hawks’ speed and deny them the chance to get their game going,’’ respected AFL analyst and dual North Melbourne premiership player David King said.

“If they allow Hawthorn freedom to move the ball then there’s no doubt they’ll hurt you on the scoreboard and the Dockers will struggle to stay in the game because it’s tough to see them scoring more than 80 points.’’

Fremantle is averaging just 83.7 points per game this season and since round eight has reached the 100-point mark just once — against Melbourne in round 22 — when it scored 108 points.

Tellingly, in the past five meetings between the preliminary final combatants — of which four have been won by the Hawks — the Dockers have kicked 77, 62, 79, 91 (a win) and 43 points.

In contrast, Hawthorn has averaged 111.4 points and been held to under 100 just once — in the 2013 grand final it won by 15 points.

Hawthorn is this year averaging 110.5 points — ranked No. 1 in the league.

Its elite ball movement has been the key.

Nat Fyfe wins the ball for Fremantle. Winning contested possessions is vital for the Dockers. Picture: Wayne Ludbey

The Hawks rank first for defensive 50 to inside 50 transition and second in scoring from a chain starting in their back 50.

The teams that have had success against them have expertly shut down their uncontested marking game.

Hawthorn leads the league in uncontested marking differential at +16.

But in its past three losses — against Richmond in round 18, Port Adelaide in round 21 and West Coast in the qualifying final — it has been denied easy ball.

The Tigers won the key statistic by 46, the Power lost it by just four and the Eagles won it by 10.

Adelaide failed miserably to stop the Hawks’ uncontested marking game last week and paid a heavy price.

Hawthorn ripped the Crows to shreds, having 38 uncontested marks in the opening term and finishing with a whopping +59 differential in steamrolling to a dominant 74-point win.

Defensive runners Grant Birchall, Taylor Duryea and Matt Suckling and wingman Isaac Smith were key men in the chain, combining for 35 marks.

The Hawks were so effective with the way they flipped the ball around that they looked like they were toying with Adelaide.

“There’s no doubt we had an aim to lower their uncontested marks but it’s one thing to want to do it and it’s another thing to actually be able to do it,’’ Crows key forward Josh Jenkins said.

In Fremantle’s favour on Friday night is that it can win the ball in a contest, which allows it to stifle the opposition.

The Dockers are the most miserly side in the league, conceding an average of 70.6 points a game.

Significantly they rank second in contested possession differential, with a +9.5 advantage.

When Fremantle wins contested possession it wins 88 per cent of the time — the second best percentage in the league.

It sets up an intriguing contest — the uncontested Hawks versus the contested Dockers.

Whichever team can play the game on its terms will have one foot in the grand final.

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THE STATS THAT MATTER

The past three teams to beat Hawthorn have stopped its freewheeling uncontested marking game.

BALL MOVEMENT

ATTACK

DEFENCE

CONTESTED FOOTY