Docker Nat Fyfe on record Brownlow Medal pace after 14 rounds of AAFL action
FREMANTLE juggernaut Nat Fyfe is on track to shatter Magpie Dane Swan’s (modern era) record for the most Brownlow Medal votes in a season. Andrew Capel explains just how dominant he has been.
NAT Fyfe is headed for the record books.
The man who this week was voted the game’s best player in the 2015 The Advertiser Footy Fans survey is not only on track to become the first Docker to win the Brownlow Medal but he is poised to shatter Magpie Dane Swan’s all-time votes record.
Exclusive Champion Data analysis shows why strong-bodied, 190cm midfielder Fyfe is a white-hot favourite to win football’s highest individual accolade.
The AFL’s official statistician has professionally analysed every game this year and has Fyfe as a runaway seven-vote leader of the Brownlow after round 14.
It has awarded Fyfe a remarkable 23 votes - 11 shy of the record Swan set in 2011 - in the 13 games that top-of-the-table Fremantle has played.
This puts him seven votes clear of Swans star Dan Hannebery and eight ahead of Richmond’s Trent Cotchin and reigning Brownlow Medallist Matt Priddis, from West Coast.
Champion awards votes on a 3, 2, 1 basis after every game taking into account a player’s impact on the result and the chances of the umpires awarding him votes based on Brownlow history.
Remarkably Champion Data says the 23-year-old Fyfe is a chance to have polled the maximum three votes in all 13 games he has played this season and a strong hope of having done so in 10 matches.
Fyfe polled the second-most votes in last year’s Brownlow with 25 but was ineligible due to suspension. He finished just one vote behind winner Priddis.
This season he has taken his game to another level, leading the league in disposals with 405 at an average of 31.2 and kicking 15 goals.
He leads contested possessions by 50, with 246 at an average of 18.9, and clearances with 116 at an 8.9 average.
Dubbed untaggable because of his combination of size, strength and marking ability, Fyfe also ranks equal-fifth in the competition in contested marks, with 27, and he sits fourth in inside-50s, with 66 at an average of 5.1.
His amazing consistency is illustrated in him not recording fewer than 26 disposals in any game this season.
Nine times he has topped 30, while he produced a career-best 40 disposals against Adelaide in his epic duel with Crows star Patrick Dangerfield at Adelaide Oval in round nine.
Fyfe also had 37 disposals against North Melbourne in round eight and 36 against Geelong in round two.
The player who rival clubs are still beating themselves up over after letting him slip to No.20 at the 2009 national draft has already compiled 100 votes in the AFLPA Player of the Year award - 31 ahead of Hannebery and 45 more than third-placed Collingwood captain Scott Pendlebury.
To put this into context, last year’s winner Robbie Gray from Port Adelaide polled 102 votes for the season.
Swan’s 34 Brownlow votes four years ago, when he polled in 14 matches, stands as the landmark to catch.
South Melbourne’s Graham Teasdale polled 59 votes in 1977 and Essendon’s Graham Moss 48 in 1976 but they were in the only two years when each of the two field umpires awarded 3-2-1 for a game.
“He’s an elite player,’’ Fremantle coach Ross Lyon acknowledged of Fyfe.
The chase is on.
CATCH ME IF YOU CAN
Fremantle star Nat Fyfe is on record pace for a first Brownlow Medal, with Champion Data awarding him 23 votes after 14 rounds - just 11 shy of Magpie Dane Swan’s record total of 34 (under the maximum three votes a game system) in 2011.
Champion Data’s Brownlow Medal leaderboard after round 14
23 - Nat Fyfe (Fremantle)
16 - Dan Hannebery (Sydney)
15 - Trent Cotchin (Richmond)
15 - Matt Priddis (West Coast)
14 - Sam Mitchell (Hawthorn)
13 - Scott Pendlebury (Collingwood)
13- Dustin Martin (Richmond)
11 - David Armitage (St Kilda)
11 - Patrick Dangerfield (Adelaide)
11 - Lachie Neale (Fremantle)
10 - Andrew Gaff (West Coast)
9 - Nathan Jones (Melbourne)
9 - Luke Hodge (Hawthorn)
9 - Dane Swan (Collingwood)
8 - Josh Kennedy (Sydney)
Under Champion Data’s Brownlow Medal formula Nat Fyfe is a chance to poll the maximum three votes in all 13 matches the Dockers have played this season and is a better than 20 per cent chance in 10 games to be adjudged best afield.
LEADING THE SA CHARGE
Crows Brownlow votes
(according to Champion Data)
11- Patrick Dangerfield
7 - Scott Thompson
4 - Rory Sloane
4 - Eddie Betts
3 - Taylor Walker
3 - Sam Jacobs
Power Brownlow votes
(according to Champion Data)
7- Travis Boak
7 - Brad Ebert
3 - Robbie Gray
3 - Ollie Wines
3 - Chad Wingard
THE NUMBER
23 - Brownlow Medal votes Champion Data says Nat Fyfe should have polled after round 14.