Adelaide can bring the star-studded and midfield-loaded Giants back to earth with its league-leading turnover game

A league-best ability to force turnovers and capitalise on them could give Adelaide the edge in the AFL qualifying final against Greater Western Sydney, writes Andrew Capel in Number Crunch.

Adelaide’s leading intercept player Jake Lever picks the ball off in front of West Coast’s Jack Darling during the round 23 match at Subiaco Oval. Picture: Tony McDonough (AAP).

IT is all about the turnovers tonight.

In a qualifying final that pits two midfields that rank in the top six in most key categories against each other, capitalising on Giants turnovers looms as the key for the Crows at Adelaide Oval.

Put simply, Adelaide is a master of destroying rivals in the turnover game.

In contrast, GWS is anything but good at winning the ball back from the opposition and making it pay on the scoreboard.

While the Giants — stocked with high draft picks — boast the best young talent in the competition, they appear to be one-trick ponies.

With midfielders Josh Kelly, Dylan Shiel, Callan Ward, Tom Scully and Lachie Whitfield being ball magnets, GWS ranks No. 1 in the league for clearance differential at +7.5 and fourth for points from clearances (34.7).

The Crows, with the Crouch boys, Matt and Brad, taking the next step in their development this season, sit fourth (+1.9) and sixth (33.7) respectively.

But the big difference between the first and fourth-ranked sides in the AFL this season is just how good minor premier Adelaide is at the turnover game.

The Crows rank in the top two in the competition for all the key positive turnover categories.

The two most notable are their No. 1 rankings for points scored from turnovers (71.4) and points differential from turnovers (+21.4).

Overall, 65 per cent of Adelaide’s scores — the Crows are the highest-scoring team in the league, averaging 109.8 points a game — come from turnovers, ranked second.

In contrast, the Giants rank ninth for points from turnovers (54.5), seventh for points differential from turnovers (+5.5) and a horrible 15th for percentage of score from turnovers (57.6).

Crows' Giant statement

Considering that 60.1 per cent of total scores across the competition this season have been generated from turnovers, the 7.4 per cent swing in the Crows’ favour is a significant margin.

It illustrates the high level of pressure Adelaide applies to the opposition and then its ability to capitalise on those mistakes with quick, precise ball movement.

Intercept marking king Jake Lever is the Crows’ best interceptor, averaging 9.8 a game and highlighting why he has been offered big dollars to change clubs next season, with Melbourne leading the race for his services.

Defensive ball magnet Rory Laird (7.6) ranks second at Adelaide for intercepts followed by fellow backmen Daniel Talia (6.6), Kyle Hartigan (5.9) and Luke Brown (5.8).

The numbers — no team is better at defending an opposition defensive 50 to inside 50 than the Crows — show how the Adelaide defenders not only restrict their opponents but turn defence into attack with great effect.

Champion Data statistics however paint a damning picture of GWS’s struggles to win the ball back from the opposition in its back half.

Leon Cameron’s team ranks a dreadful 15th in opposition centre clearances to inside 50s (73.9 per cent), opposition centre clearances to score (25.7 per cent) and opposition half-back to inside 50s (43.8 per cent). The bottom line is that if Adelaide wins the ball from a Giants turnover it is going to make them pay where it hurts the most — on the scoreboard.

Asked about the Crows’ success in the turnover game, coach Don Pyke said: “It’s because we value pressure on the ball and we value pressure on the opposition.’’

“And when we bring that we are able to turn the ball over,’’ he said.

“It’s a mindset thing for us as well as something that we train.’’

And it just might lead to Adelaide's first preliminary final appearance since 2012.
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