Examining whether Carlton or Essendon is closer to its next premiership
They both have 16 premierships but look a long way off their 17th. We delve into the key areas defining Carlton and Essendon to determine which club will get to the promised land first.
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They are two of the sport’s most esteemed clubs with the richest history, but success is elusive for Carlton and Essendon.
In years gone by, the hopes of a breakthrough premiership has appeared on the horizon for both the Blues and the Bombers, but neither side has harnessed their momentum at the pointy end of the season.
Now entering the back half of 2025, both sides are out of the top eight and looking more like pretenders than contenders.
But which side is closer to a flag?
We look at what each side looks like the rest of the season, and who is better placed to contend in the coming years.
FOR THE NOW
INSIDE THE COACHES BOX
The words are written on whiteboards around Ikon Park.
“Pound the Rock”.
It’s a reminder to Carlton’s playing group of the unrelenting contested style of football that Michael Voss wants his side to play.
There hasn’t been any deflection from that strategy despite the evolution of football and the 17 other teams moving away from that style.
While other teams get more explosive from the contest, more daring with movement off half back, and more chaotic with entries inside forward 50, Carlton doubles down.
The Blues are league leaders in contested possession differential and pressure rating this season, and are sixth in clearance differential.
They want to drag teams into a scrap and beat them there.
It’s an exhausting style and it costs them in the back half of games.
The Blues are the second-best team in first halves this season (+98), but are the fifth-worst side in second halves (-74).
Essendon has adopted a different strategy, focusing on possession football.
Similarly to Carlton, the Bombers aren’t exploding out of contests and focusing on gaining ground at all costs, which is a growing trend in the AFL.
They are league leaders in the disposal count, sit fifth in uncontested marks due to their chipping style, and have the fourth-worst percentage of kicks gaining ground.
Both coaches are signed beyond this campaign, with Voss locked in until next year and Scott secured until 2027.
Who is better placed: Carlton appears ahead, having gone 18-22 against top-eight sides under Voss, while Essendon is 6-19 against top-eight sides under Scott.
PLAYING IN THEIR PRIME
Carlton should be in a win-now phase, pushing deep into finals and challenging for a premiership.
The players in their prime are some of the best in the league.
Charlie Curnow and Harry McKay have won three of the past four Coleman Medals between them, Tom De Koning is considered one of the best rucks in the competition, and Jacob Weitering is the All-Australian full-back.
George Hewett is enjoying a career-best season, as is Jack Silvagni after recovering from an ACL injury, and Sam Walsh and Adam Cerra are playing consistent footy after some injury-plagued seasons.
Essendon does not have the same firepower in the prime, but gun midfielders Jye Caldwell and Nic Martin headline players entering their prime.
Sam Draper was in strong form before his achilles injury, and Jordan Ridley has endured a rough run with injury but is an All Australian calibre defender at his best.
Who is better placed: Carlton has more A-graders who are hitting their peak.
SALARY CAP DRAMAS
Carlton has plenty of cash tied up, and it is only going to get tighter if Tom De Koning stays.
The ruck is currently being courted by a host of rival clubs, with St Kilda offering an eye-watering $1.7 million to move to Moorabbin.
If De Koning opts to stay, he’ll join Adam Cerra, Harry McKay (2030) and Jacob Weitering (2031) on expensive long-term deals.
Mitch McGovern, Jack Silvagni, Nic Newman, Brodie Kemp and Nick Haynes the priority re-signings coming out of contract.
It seems unlikely the Blues can keep De Koning and avoid pillaging its already-weak list depth.
Essendon has just Andrew McGrath signed to 2030, but will pay up for emerging defender Zach Reid to remain beyond this year and into next decade after his start to the season.
Sam Draper and Nick Bryan are priority signings, with Draper a chance to explore his options while Bryan seems locked into the Bombers.
Who is better placed: Essendon has more flexibility in its cap and has less starpower coming out of contract at the end of this season.
FOR THE FUTURE
DRAFT HANDS AND CLUB-TIED PROSPECTS
While Carlton and Essendon shared similarities heading into last year’s ‘Super Draft’, list bosses Nick Austin and Matt Rosa had opposing strategies.
The Blues had two father-son products in Ben and Lucas Camporeale, while the Bombers had access to talented small forward Isaac Kako through their NGA.
Ultimately a bid came for Kako at No.13, but not before the Bombers traded out of the first round to avoid it getting swallowed up by an early bid.
When it came to the Blues and their draft strategy, Austin didn’t blink and it paid off in the form of O’Farrell at No.40, just three selections ahead of a bid for Ben Camporeale.
With Essendon trading out of its No.11 selection last season, Rosa will now have two first-round picks, both shaping to fall inside the top 10.
The Bombers will also have two second rounders, which will likely be used on Academy products Hussien El Achkar and Adam Sweid.
Meanwhile, the Blues took a different approach, mortgaging their future assets to move up the order and take talented midfielder Jagga Smith.
The Oakleigh Chargers ball magnet cost Carlton its first and second rounders in 2025, and there has been no dividends paid yet after Smith ruptured his ACL in a pre-season clash.
Promisingly the midfielder is back running laps at Ikon Park in recent weeks.
Entering the 2025 draft, Carlton’s first selection will fall in the second round, with the pick tied to Brisbane.
Austin might have to gamble again in November, with father-son prospect Harry Dean rated by some experts as a second-round talent.
The Blues also have access to Jack Ison, who is expected to be drafted, and Tyson Gresham, the brother of Essendon’s Jade Gresham, in their Academy.
Both sides’ draft hands could change wildly in the off-season, with Essendon in the market for West Coast’s Harley Reid, who would cost at least both first rounders, while Carlton could have a first-round compensation pick if Tom De Koning defects to St Kilda.
Who is better placed: As it stands, Essendon has a much better draft hand.
YOUNG TALENT TIME
Brad Scott refused to say Essendon was in a rebuild throughout the pre-season, but seven debutants later it’s clear where the priorities lie.
The Bombers are hitching their cart to second-year forward Nate Caddy, and for good reason.
But the talent is there beyond just Caddy.
Taken at No.54 in the 2023 draft, Archie Roberts is firming as one of the standout chances in this year’s Rising Star award, having averaged 24.1 touches through 11 games this year.
Small forward Isaac Kako was a first-round talent and has shone at stages this year, but more excitingly for Essendon fans has been the development of the later picks.
Zak Johnson debuted in round 12 after arriving at the club as the No.70 pick last season, while rookie Archer Day-Wicks has been handed several games already in his maiden campaign.
Angus Clarke also burst onto the scene with three goals on debut, and Luamon Lual will play his first senior game against the Blues.
Ben Camporeale is close to playing and Lucas Camporeale did start the season in the senior side, but he has since been developing in the VFL.
Oliver Hollands is just 21 but has played 53 senior games already, while mid-season pick up Cooper Lord has shown plenty of promise.
But there’s been some misses at Carlton, too.
Jesse Motlop entered 2025 after a strong pre-season, but he and the rest of the small forwards have been largely disappointing.
Harry Lemmey was once seen as the next key forward in line, but Carlton has preferred to give games to Lachie Young rather than debut the South Australian.
Ashton Moir has played three games in two years and hasn’t shown much despite starting as the substitute in every match.
Who is better placed: Essendon’s young star power, and depth, is better.
OFF THE FIELD
It turned out to be false, but there were mid-season reports of former Essendon chairman Paul Little wanting to stage a coup and take power back.
Part of the reported plan was to sack Scott and replace him with former coach James Hird – a plan the pair has denied.
But it speaks to the security within the club that demands success.
Scott is halfway through his third season as coach, and already he is the second-most experienced Bombers leader since Hird.
Essendon has endured 10 different senior coaches since the club last tasted finals success under Kevin Sheedy in 2004.
Carlton is a side going through overhaul off the field, with Graham Wright transitioning into the chief executive role in October.
The esteemed footy figure will take over from long-serving Brian Cook officially at the end of the season, but his responsibilities will increase from July.
Verdict: Carlton’s recruitment of Wright has the Blues ahead.
FINAL VERDICT
The top-end talent is there, and is clearly better than Essendon’s elite core.
But where Carlton falls down is the salary cap dramas, where its best players are on big money, which limits the ability to retain depth.
Whether the Blues opts for a reset remains to be seen.
Verdict: Essendon is better placed beyond this year, with better young talent, less salary restraints and more draft capital. Unless Carlton drastically improves and ultimately wins the premiership in 2025, Essendon is closer to a flag.
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