Every club’s run home, final ladder position predicted with eight rounds to go
Once upon a time, 13 wins was the magic number to guarantee a finals spot. That figure has been dwarfed in our ladder predictor — see where your side finishes here in the run home.
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Is 15 wins not enough to make the top eight?
And which serious premiership contenders face an uphill battle to secure a top-four spot?
Here is the run home for all 18 clubs with their predicted finish on the AFL ladder.
SCROLL DOWN FOR THE FULL PREDICTED LADDER
1. COLLINGWOOD
Played: 15, Won: 13, Lost: 2, Percentage: 136
The Magpies have set up their season beautifully by winning a procession of danger games through the bye rounds.
They could have easily coughed up four points to Melbourne, St Kilda or West Coast – instead they are 10 points clear atop the ladder and it’s time to cue the “mini pre-season” talk.
Don’t expect a perfect run from here – the Pies had a brief trough at the back end of their golden 2023 as they got themselves ready for the finals.
Only two remaining interstate trips will help keep the troops fresh though.
2. BRISBANE LIONS
Played: 15, Won: 10, Drawn: 1, Lost: 4, Percentage: 113
The Lions come out of the bye in a nice spot after their comprehensive win over Geelong in round 15.
Only drop two games from here and the reigning premiers should be able to sew up a top-two spot – which is quite remarkable given most weeks they have appeared some distance from their best.
Meeting five of the top nine sides in the last six weeks will be demanding, but Brisbane will know as well as any side how its game is holding up against the best when finals get underway.
3. ADELAIDE
Played: 15, Won: 10, Drawn: 0, Lost: 5, Percentage: 140
Thrashing Richmond has given Adelaide crucial percentage in a season where only four premiership points might stand between third and ninth on the ladder.
Two or three more heavy wins – as well as a big scalp in Hawthorn or the Western Bulldogs – would set the Crows on course for a top-four finish, but a home qualifying final would be their goal from here.
4. GEELONG
Played: 15, Won: 10, Lost: 5, Percentage: 128
Will Geelong show up to its Marvel Stadium clash against North in round 20?
That game could be the difference between second and fifth for Chris Scott’s side, which has lost its last three games at the venue – all at the hands of St Kilda.
A win on the road against GWS would also be huge towards the Cats’ top-four chances.
5. HAWTHORN
Played: 15, Won: 10, Lost: 5, Percentage: 118
They’ve picked up steam in the last few weeks, but the Hawks need to claim at least one more top-nine scalp to reach the September action.
Tricky interstate trips to Fremantle, Adelaide and Brisbane lie in the Hawks’ path to the finals – they will want to be tackling the Lions in round 24 for a top-four spot; not for a top-eight spot.
6. FREMANTLE
Played: 15, Won: 10, Lost: 5, Percentage: 110
The Dockers’ percentage is narrowly better than the Giants’ – it will be important for them to hold that gap if their run home unfolds like the above.
Win all their home games and pinch one over the Power in Adelaide, and they’ll be right in the peloton jostling for finals spots.
Brisbane in round 23 and the Western Bulldogs in round 24 will be massive for Fremantle.
7. WESTERN BULLDOGS
Played: 15, Won: 9, Lost: 6, Percentage: 132
Finally the Western Bulldogs get to reap the rewards of their “world tour” at the start of the season.
One trip to Brisbane, one trip to the MCG to face Melbourne, and the rest of the run home will be on their home patch.
They’ve got in their own way in the past at this point in the season, but the Dogs are in a strong position to clinch a double chance.
8. GOLD COAST
Played: 14, Won: 9, Lost: 5, Percentage: 120
The Suns will hope a little wobble through the bye rounds is behind them.
Two clashes against an injury-ravaged Essendon look appealing for boosting their percentage, but they will need a big scalp against Collingwood or Brisbane at home to keep the likes of GWS from pushing them out of the eight at the season’s end.
9. GWS GIANTS
Played: 15, Won: 9, Lost: 6, Percentage: 108
In all likelihood, 15 wins will take the Giants to finals football.
It would be an outrageous way to end a campaign if they fell short on percentage to a pack of three or four other sides.
But reaching that 15-win mark will require consistency at home that hasn’t been there for the Giants in much of this campaign.
Wins over Geelong and Sydney will be essential to return to the September action.
10. PORT ADELAIDE
Played: 15, Won: 7, Lost: 8, Percentage: 89
Port Adelaide kept their season alive after an emphatic performance over the Blues on Thursday night. In Ken Hinkley’s last season in charge, the Power will play on the hallowed Adelaide Oval turf four more times, including the second edition of the Showdown in July. Being two games and percentage out of the eight, the Power will need a scalp with big games against Brisbane at the Gabba this weekend and Geelong in round 21.
11. CARLTON
Played: 15, Won: 6, Lost: 9, Percentage: 100
Blues fans were expecting a strong response after their 11-point loss to North Melbourne, but were a no show, leaving more questions than answers. With Michael Voss’ job on the line and contracts to be earnt, the navy Blues have still plenty to play for. Up against their arch rivals in Collingwood, an unlucky victory here would be a good start in turning the pressure barometer down a level or two. The good news for the Blues though is that they have seven out of the last eight games in Melbourne, but with Brisbane the week after Friday night’s clash, it doesn’t get any easier.
12. SYDNEY SWANS
Played: 15, Won: 6, Lost: 9, Percentage: 92
The Swans lost their fifth game at the SCG of the year against the Western Bulldogs, as Dean Cox’s first season in charge can’t end any sooner. The grand finalists of last year will believe they have a chance to win the majority of their last eight games at their best against three top-eight sides. After getting Errol Gulden, Tom Papley and Callum Mills back this month, they will aim to implement Dean Cox’s style of play much better than they have.
13. ESSENDON
Played: 14, Won: 6, Lost: 8, Percentage: 78
The Bombers were expecting key players to be available for selection after the bye, but were hit by fresh setbacks. Darcy Parish, who played in their last game in the west, pulled up saw at training with calf soreness, as well as teammates Kyle Langford (quad) and Mason Redman (hamstring). Although the injury toll is worsening for Brad Scott’s side, Issac Kako and Archer May lighting up the forward line would excite Bombers fans. Essendon faces four top-nine teams in its last nine games, including two clashes against Gold Coast.
14. MELBOURNE
Played: 15, Won: 5, Lost: 10, Percentage: 87
The Demons were still on the vacation in their first quarter against the Gold Coast Suns, resulting in a scoreless start. With four losses in a row, the Demons will need to pull off an upset against the Crows this weekend at the Adelaide Oval. At their best they can compete well against the top sides, going down to Collingwood by only a point on King’s Birthday, but when their key players are out of form they are a bottom six side. Games against North, Carlton, St. Kilda and West Coast are all winnable games.
15. ST KILDA
Played: 15, Won: 5, Lost: 10, Percentage: 86
The Saints had their chances over in the West, but a late-surge by the Dockers proved too strong. They play an in-form Hawthorn side at Marvel Stadium this week, as they look to blood youth for the back end of the year. Second-gamer Alix “The Flying Viking” Tauru is exactly what Saints fans want to see, as the first-round pick of last year’s draft had the equal-most spoils by a Saints player ever in his second game.
16. NORTH MELBOURNE
Played: 15, Won: 4, Drawn: 1, Lost: 10, Percentage: 79
The Kangaroos took a step back on the weekend, but the five-day turnaround comes at the perfect time. Thursday night is the clubs centenary game against the Western Bulldogs and there is no doubt 4x Premiership coach Alastair Clarkson will expect a response from his side. The matches against Melbourne and Sydney are looking like winnable games given both sides’ recent form, however with young sides they can only look further to this week.
17. RICHMOND
Played: 15, Won: 3, Lost: 12, Percentage: 65
The Tigers were comprehensively outgunned by the Crows on Sunday, as Adem Yze’s young side begin to fatigue. It was their sixth consecutive loss on the weekend and the task doesn’t get any easier this week as they go up the highway to Geelong in what is one of the toughest road trips in footy. Noah Balta will miss the games against Essendon and West Coast, and the Tigers could be without Tom Lynch for those otherwise winnable games too.
18. WEST COAST
Played: 15, Won: 1, Lost: 14, Percentage: 65
Andrew McQualter’s Eagles took it right up to the best team in the competition last weekend, but his young side ran out of legs in the last term. With five home games out of their last eight games, Eagles fans would be hoping for a competitive finish to the season. The Richmond game in round 19 would be marked down on the calendar as a game they can add to their one win of the year. It’s going to be a long nine weeks ahead for McQualter’s side who are right on track to win a second wooden spoon in three years.
Originally published as Every club’s run home, final ladder position predicted with eight rounds to go
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