AFL Draft preview: Chris Cavanagh names the 12 picks set to shape the 2024 national draft

What North Melbourne does with pick two will have a huge domino effect on the rest of this year’s National Draft. CHRIS CAVANAGH zeroes in on the 12 most-influential decisions that will shape the draft.

Some years, the AFL national draft can be fairly predictable.

This is not one of those years.

There looks set to be a lot of drama on Wednesday and Thursday, amid a number of pivot points within the first 35 selections.

An even group of gun players look set to present clubs with some challenging decisions.

The possibility of live pick trading also throws a spanner in the works.

Here are 12 picks that could shape the 2024 national draft.

Sam Lalor is expected to be taken at pick 1 by Richmond. Picture: Michael Willson/AFL Photos via Getty Images

Pick 1 – Richmond

Sam Lalor looks the odds-on favourite to be the No. 1 pick, but the Tigers have also done their homework on Finn O’Sullivan and again met with him in recent days. If it were to be O’Sullivan, could that change what the Tigers do at pick 6? It would definitely change what North Melbourne does at pick 2, given the Kangaroos have been strongly linked to O’Sullivan over the past week.

Sam Lalor #4. #GoTigeshttps://t.co/N0OBodNXY7pic.twitter.com/JnzviOYpnG

— Finn (@carfarttWIP) October 23, 2024

Pick 2 – North Melbourne

Presuming Richmond picks Lalor at No. 1, the Roos look set to have a choice to make between powerful midfielder-forward O’Sullivan and exciting utility Alix Tauru. If it is O’Sullivan, it increases the need for North Melbourne to try and trade back into the first round of the draft using a future first-round pick and grab a key position player. But if it is 193cm utility Tauru, it may change what Carlton does at pick 3 given the Blues have also expressed significant interest in O’Sullivan.

Sam Lalor and Jagga Smith are tipped to be taken in the first three picks. Picture: Michael Klein

Pick 3 – Carlton

With O’Sullivan looking increasingly likely to be off the board, Jagga Smith has emerged as the favourite to be snapped up by the Blues. Carlton coach Michael Voss joined the club’s recruiting team on a trip to Adelaide last week to meet with Sid Draper, who would also suit. If the Blues were to go with Draper, the Crows would surely snap up Smith with the next pick. However, if Draper is overlooked here, there is some chance he slides to St Kilda.

Sid Draper is a chance to head to the Crows. Picture: Sarah Reed/AFL Photos via Getty Images

Harvey Langford is another player the Crows are weighing up.

Pick 4 – Adelaide

The Crows have been linked to Smith, Draper and Langford and have looked into a potential pick swap with North Melbourne in a bid to grab Smith at No.2. But if they stay where they are and Smith is gone, it will be an interesting decision between local midfielder Draper and Victorian onballer Langford. If the Crows go with Draper, Langford is likely to land at Melbourne with the next selection. If it is Langford, Draper could well slide a few spots to St Kilda.

Picks 7 & 8 – St Kilda

The Saints are a big watch with these two top-10 picks. They have indicated they are keen to add a couple of gun midfielders to the mix, but who will be available? Could Draper or Langford slide through? Will St Kilda beat rivals to elite running defender or midfielder Tobie Travagalia? Or will they pounce on exciting 193cm utility Tauru? St Kilda could also shape the draft hands of some rivals, given they are seen as potential bidders for Suns Academy onballer Leo Lombard and even Essendon NGA member Isaac Kako. Pick 8 has been a target for rival clubs looking to move up the order, but the Saints seem more likely to stay where they are now.

Tobie Travaglia is in the mix for St Kilda’s two top-10 picks.

Bo Allan is likely to be picked before West Coast and Fremantle have their first selections.

Pick 9 – Melbourne

West Australian star Bo Allan has plenty of fans and looks no chance of getting to West Coast (pick 12) or Fremantle (pick 14). Richmond also has significant interest, but will Melbourne beat the Tigers to the punch? Richmond has the next two picks and if Allan is off the board then it would change the Tigers’ thinking a little.

GWS list manager Adrian Caruso. Picture: Michael Klein

Picks 15, 16 & 21 – Greater Western Sydney

Will the Giants hold all three first-round selections or trade at least one into next year’s draft? There are a stack of clubs who either want to get back into the first-round of this year’s draft or secure an additional pick, meaning GWS could have some juicy offers come its way.

Richmond’s Blair Hartley. Picture: Josh Chadwick/AFL Photos via Getty Images

Pick 24 – Richmond

The Tigers have seven first-round picks, but also hold the first selection of the second round on Thursday night. Expect clubs to come hard with offers for this pick, if a player they like slides through night one. Richmond will then have the option to use the selection or instead bolster their draft hand for 2025 and be content with seven top-30 selections.

Could St Kilda scupper Carlton’s Ben Camporeale plans? Picture: Sarah Reed/AFL Photos via Getty Images

Pick 32 – St Kilda

Could this pick mess up Carlton’s draft plans a little? The Blues currently hold pick 38, but a bid on father-son Ben Camporeale before that point would chew up that selection. The Saints have shown interest in the South Australian on-baller and are one club around this point who could place a bid.

Originally published as AFL Draft preview: Chris Cavanagh names the 12 picks set to shape the 2024 national draft