Brownlow could come down to final round as Gary Ablett hits form slump

A MONTH ago Gary Ablett was considered such a certainty to win this year's Brownlow Medal that some betting agencies paid out on him.

Gold Coast Suns superstar Gary Ablett, right, has hit a form slump in recent weeks and is no longer a Brownlow Medal certainty.

A MONTH ago Gary Ablett was considered such a certainty to win this year's Brownlow Medal that some betting agencies paid out on him.

Then he hit a form slump.

After seemingly having a second Brownlow in the bag, the Gold Coast superstar has had one of the worst months of his illustrious 252-game career.

Since his 32-disposal performance against Carlton in round 18 - his 12th game with 30 or more possessions this year - Ablett has averaged a modest 24 disposals, with season lows of 19 and 22 against Melbourne and Port Adelaide respectively.

While he has hit a hurdle and his 182cm frame appears to have finally crumbled under the enormous weight of the tagging pressure he cops each week, his main challengers for the Browlow have continued to play at a high standard.

With one home-and-away series remaining, the Brownlow has become a race in three, according to the AFL's official statistician Champion Data.

Champion awards votes on a 3, 2, 1 basis after every game and has Ablett leading inspirational Geelong skipper Joel Selwood by one solitary vote after round 22.

It rates Hawthorn ball magnet Sam Mitchell as the only threat to the pair with a game to play.

Champion has awarded Ablett 29 votes - but none in the past month - Selwood 28 and Mitchell 27.

Magpie Dane Swan, a bookies fancy, and reigning Brownlow Medallist Jobe Watson sit equal-fourth in Champion's Brownlow predictor with 23 votes.

While Ablett has drifted in betting markets from $1.33 four weeks ago to $2.35, his former Cats teammate Selwood has been the big firmer.

He has been backed in from a $51 longshot after round 14 to warm second favourite at $3.50 after a series of standout performances.

The hard-as-nails Selwood has in the past eight weeks averaged 28 disposals and kicked 17 goals, including two hauls of four against the Power and West Coast.

Mitchell has been a model of consistency.

He is averaging 28 disposals but has not had fewer than 24 possessions in a game. His season-high is 37 against Geelong in round one.

Swan has made a late charge to medal contention.

The running machine has recorded more than 30 disposals in his past 12 games.

Crow Patrick Dangerfield and Port skipper Travis Boak are rated as the SA clubs' best chances.

Champion has Dangerfield on 16 votes and Boak 14.

Dangerfield thinks Ablett will win, saying "he has been the best player over the whole season''.

But Power veteran Kane Cornes is tipping an upset.

"You never know which way the umpires will vote but I think Ryan Griffen (from the Western Bulldogs) has had an amazing year and he deserves to win it,'' Cornes said.

"Whether they've won enough games, I'm not sure, but his performances this year have been right up there and have probably gone under the radar a little bit.''

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