Brisbane Lions’ goalkicking woes in stark contrast to AFL semi-final opponent GWS Giants
It’s the accurate Giants up against the scattergun Lions — CALLUM DICK and LACHLAN MCKIRDY delve into the key numbers that could decide this weekend’s semi-final.
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“Bad kicking is bad football”.
It is an adage as old as Aussie rules itself.
But what about bad goal kicking?
The Brisbane Lions have been asked that question repeatedly over the past month.
Externally, players and coaches have shrugged their wayward woes off as something that will simply correct itself in due course.
Unfortunately, a season’s worth of data suggests it is a bigger issue than Chris Fagan and co. would care to admit – at least publicly.
Brisbane’s coach is a stats man. He always comes armed with the KPIs. By just about every measure he considers important, his side performs strongly.
Except the stat that ultimately decides the outcome of games.
The Lions rank 15th in the AFL for accuracy across the season, going at 46.4 per cent. The league average is 49.3 per cent.
Over their past five games, that number has plummeted even further to just 41.7 per cent. Not exactly peaking for September.
Only Richmond, averaging 7.4 fewer shots per game, boasts a worse accuracy rating than the Lions in that span.
For Brisbane fans, these numbers will not be anything new. They have bemoaned their team’s inaccuracy for months and no doubt dug down into the numbers themselves.
To this point, Brisbane’s Achilles heel has not proved fatal.
After all, Fagan’s side is one of only six teams still in the premiership hunt.
But this weekend six will become four, and if the Lions want to progress through to a fourth prelim in five years, they must solve their goalkicking struggles.
Fittingly, their semi-final opponent presents as the polar opposite.
TWO WAYS TO WIN
GWS is the No. 2 ranked team for accuracy across the season, at 54.4 per cent: more than five per cent higher than the league average and eight per cent better than Brisbane.
While the Lions have trended down over their past five games, the Giants have actually improved – marginally, to 54.5 per cent – in that time.
The two teams are a fascinating case study in quantity versus quality.
Brisbane is the No. 1 inside 50 differential (+9.8) and shots at goal (28.5) team in the AFL. Conversely, GWS ranks 15th (-3.8) and 12th (24.1) respectively.
But not only do the Giants make up for that by being the No. 2 goal kicking accuracy team in the competition, they are also the fourth-best for expected shot at goal accuracy.
Brisbane fares better in this area, ranking seventh in the AFL. But that also means the Lions are whiffing on shots they should be expected to convert into goals.
CONTRASTING KICKING
We only have to cast an eye back five weeks for the perfect example of the two sides’ approach to goal kicking.
GWS walked into the Gabba in round 22 and ended Brisbane’s nine-game winning run.
In one of the more remarkable games this season, Adam Kingsley’s men came from 30 points down at quarter-time, booting the final six goals of the game, to claim an 18-point victory.
By almost all of Fagan’s metrics, the Lions were the better team. But they were wasteful in front of goal, booting 8.16 to the Giants’ eye-wateringly accurate 13.4.
On expected score, Brisbane should have won the match by more than five goals.
#AFLLionsGIANTS Final xScores:
— AFLxScore (@AFLxScore) August 10, 2024
BL 64 from expected 95.1 (+0 rushed)
GWS 82 from expected 63.3 (+0 rushed) pic.twitter.com/GKDCkxXkR5
Of their 16 behinds, nine came from set shots and four of those were within 40m on a slight angle.
They had three shots on goal from within 30m that failed to score entirely.
The Giants meanwhile missed just two set shots for the entire match and only failed to score from one attempt on goal.
It was a diabolical display of inaccurate goal kicking that ultimately cost the Lions a place in the top four.
THE GIANT DIFFERENCE
The Lions’ malaise in front of goal is laid bare when you simply look at their individual accuracy stats in comparison to Saturday’s opponents.
Of Brisbane’s top 10 goal-kickers this season, Zac Bailey, Callum Ah Chee and Logan Morris share the best accuracy with 54 per cent. Down in Western Sydney, eight of the Giants’ best goal-kickers have an accuracy of 55 per cent or greater.
Naturally, a big factor in the success that Kingsley’s side has had in 2024 is the form of Coleman Medallist, Jesse Hogan. From 109 shots, Hogan has kicked 72.25, with only 12 missing entirely.
His accuracy is in stark contrast to Brisbane’s Joe Daniher, a player whose form was good enough this year to be selected for the 44-man All-Australian squad.
Daniher’s accuracy sits at 45 per cent, having scored 52.46 from his 116 shots at goal. That is 21 per cent less than Hogan (65 per cent) who has put together one of the most accurate seasons from a key forward of all time.
One of the most notable parts of the Giants’ accuracy is that it’s their young talls who are standing up to the occasion. Aaron Cadman has scored 29.11 at 64 per cent in just his second season, while Jake Riccardi has kicked 26.12 at 57 per cent.
Their least accurate forward with more than 10 goals this year is actually their skipper, Toby Greene. Last year’s All-Australian captain has still scored 41 goals, but his accuracy of 44 per cent is only just double the number of shots he has missed (22 per cent).
JEKYLL AND HYDE GIANTS
Clearly, the Giants have made the most of their opportunities this year. Despite having the seventh-fewest shots at goal in 2024, they’ve had the second-best accuracy.
Four of their wins during their recent seven-game winning streak arrived despite having fewer scoring shots than their opposition – Richmond (24-23), Gold Coast (20-19), Melbourne (23-20) and Brisbane (24-17).
That form can only last so long, and it was exposed in the qualifying final against the Swans. Their first quarter proved particularly costly, as they only scored 17 points despite having an expected score of 26.7.
Toby Greene missed two great opportunities including an open goal running in from a slight angle 30 metres out, while James Peatling missed a set shot from directly in front. Lachie Keeffe also missed a couple of gilt-edged chances in the second and fourth quarters.
Naturally, that was contrasted by some above-average conversions from the likes of Aaron Cadman and Callan Ward. But if they and Hogan have an off day, their inaccuracy can be exploited by the Lions because they simply haven’t been able to generate enough looks inside 50 this season.
However, for three quarters against the Swans, the Giants’ defence completely locked down the best attack in the competition. If they can do that for the entire game against the Lions, and return to the efficiency that has served them well all season, Fagan’s side could be in for a long day at the office.
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