Blues dropping away in key statistics, top-four spot looking vulnerable
Carlton have fallen away in a number of key areas in the last month, which has resulted in a poor patch of form. CHRIS CAVANAGH takes a closer look at the Blues’ rut.
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This is the time of year where the eventual premiers traditionally get humming.
Collingwood won seven of its last 10 home-and-away matches in 2023, Geelong had won 13 games on the trot entering September in 2022 and Richmond took the points in its final nine matches of the regular season in 2019.
With four games to go, one of this year’s flag contenders — Carlton — is in a rut.
The Blues have lost three of their past four matches and it is areas of their game which have long been perceived as strengths which are letting them down.
Contest, pressure and territory have been key pillars of Carlton’s game under coach Michael Voss.
The Blues know their midfield and forward line are their biggest weapons and their backline is their biggest weakness.
Defensively, they rank 14th this season.
Yet, their front-half game is fast falling away.
Over the past five weeks, Voss’ side has won the time in forward half percentage just once.
On Friday night, Port Adelaide scored 7.8 to 1.5 after halftime on the back of the ball living in its forward half for 63 per cent of time after the main break.
The visitors won the midfield battle and heaped on the pressure, generating repeat inside-50 entries courtesy of Carlton back-half turnovers.
The Power won the centre clearance count 6-1 after halftime and triumphed overall in clearances (43-33) and inside-50s (56-45).
Voss wasn’t exactly wondering why his side coughed up a 31-point lead late in the second quarter to lose by 14 points at Marvel Stadium.
“It’s pretty clear for us,” he said.
“I’ll try and say, ‘Contest and pressure’ about five different ways if you want. But effectively, that’s where it all started and where it all finished.”
It’s not just the lack of clearance wins that have been an issue for the Blues, but their ability to minimise damage from stoppage losses is also hurting dearly.
In a five-week block to round 20 last year, the Blues recorded a scores from stoppages differential of +183 points.
It was their damaging point-of-difference.
However, in the same five week period this year they have posted a scores from stoppages differential of -68 points.
The only match during this period where they finished ahead of the ledger was when they outscored 17th-placed North Melbourne by four points from the score source in round 19.
On Friday night, the Power prevailed 6.8 (44) to 2.3 (15) on the scores from stoppages stats line.
Voss dismissed suggestions that his miss-firing midfield was a “concern” entering the final month of the season, but conceded there were problems.
“It’s not a concern. It’s a challenge, though,” he said.
“I’ll back the men that are in there, though. They’re competitive and they’re always looking to get better and the one thing I know they don’t like is losing. They don’t like losing a contest, let alone four points. But we’ve got to acknowledge we got beaten in there today.”
With Tom De Koning sidelined with a foot injury for at least the rest of the home-and-away season, the Blues used Marc Pittonet against Jordan Sweet in the ruck on Friday night and Sweet took the points in that battle.
Midfielders Patrick Cripps, Sam Walsh and George Hewett were the other centre-bounce staples, while Alex Cincotta was used there in the first half to put the clamps on Zak Butters.
But Adam Cerra was again played across halfback, attending only three centre bounces for the night – which all came in the first half.
Cerra finished with an equal season-low 15 disposals.
The loss leaves plenty of questions.
What is the Blues’ best midfield mix? Are they are good in the middle as we thought? How much will the loss of De Koning hurt? Can they rediscover their territory game? Can the defence hold up if they can’t?
The problem is, time is ticking.
There are only four rounds left to finetune before finals — and Carlton’s top-four spot is suddenly very vulnerable.
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Originally published as Blues dropping away in key statistics, top-four spot looking vulnerable
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