AFL top-six and top-10 markets revealed for 2026 as Dons written off, Pies tipped to fall
Bookmakers have delivered brutal verdicts on several AFL clubs for 2026, with punters taking advantage of Essendon’s long odds. See the best value bets and no-goes here.
Just when the Bombers thought they had been kicked by everyone this off-season, the bookmakers have laid the shoe in — and Craig McRae’s geriatric Collingwood list has been pegged for a fall.
For the first time, markets for teams to finish in the top 10 and the top 6 have popped up as the AFL’s poorly-named wildcard finals lands on the footy calendar.
The introduction of top 10 market means you barely get your money back on the Lions ($1.04 with Sportsbet), Cats ($1.05) and Hawks ($1.08).
The Lions have actually gone out from $1.01.
It has been the long odds of the Dons that have been most sought after, with the Bombers firming, despite being written off by the bookies in other markets.
Sportsbet’s head of AFL Allan Hagley said he expected “to see very little action on the likes of Brisbane and Geelong”.
“Once the AFL declared wildcard game would be classified as finals, we chose to offer top 10 because, in our view, that is now the correct interpretation and the simplest option for customers,” Hagley said.
“Essendon have been best backed (for top 10), firming from $26 into $15, and to a lesser extent West Coast.”
Since Hagley shared those thoughts the Dons have come in further, and were at $10 on Monday morning.
The Bombers are decidedly on the nose with the oddsmakers, sitting as clear third-favourite ($3.60) for the wooden spoon, behind only West Coast ($2.80) and Richmond ($3.50).
That trio initially sat miles away from next-ranked North Melbourne and the Roos have come in from $21 to $11.
The Roos were handed a favourable fixture but the bookies had no mercy for the Bombers.
Despite an injury crisis so devastating it had Dons fans diving into conspiracies about the firmness of the earth at Tullamarine, Brad Scott’s team still won five more games than the Eagles this year and finished above the Roos and Tigers.
Michael Voss’ hopes of winning a new contract will surely be hit by missing the top 10 and the Blues ($3.50) rank well behind Port Adelaide ($2), despite Carlton finishing higher at the end of the season.
While Brisbane ($5) heads up the flag favouritism for a three-peat, ahead of Geelong and Hawthorn (both $8), it is the Magpies who have been forecast to slide like they are at Wet‘n’Wild.
Ladder leaders for 14 weeks during the middle of the 2025 season before a fourth-placed finish, Collingwood ($2.60) is the most likely side to play in a wildcard final, by finishing between 7-10.
Nobody knows finishing in that range like Luke Beveridge, given the Western Bulldogs have landed between seventh and ninth in five of the last seven seasons and seven of the last 10.
The Dogs ($2.80) sit in a group with Fremantle, St Kilda and Sydney as next most likely, after the Pies.
It is similar in the top six frame, where Ross Lyon’s drastic remake of St Kilda’s team hasn’t won over the oddsmakers, with the Saints a $3.60 outsider for the six, ranked 11th in the comp.
It’s no surprise Nick Daicos is the runaway favourite for the Brownlow Medal.
The superstar Pie sat on the top line with the bookies for all of 2025 but finished runner up to Matt Rowell on football’s night of nights.
Daicos ($5) is far and away the favourite, ahead of Rowell ($10) and Marcus Bontempelli ($13).
‘The Bont’ came home with the wettest of sails, polling in each of his last seven games after an early season injury, while Noah Anderson and Caleb Serong (both $34) could be value here given both finished equal-fifth this year.
Despite not making any additions during the trade period, the bookies are backing in natural improvement to carry Hawthorn forward next year, with the Hawks only behind the Cats and Lions in virtually every winning market.
BARNES’ VALUE BETS
Port Adelaide to finish bottom four – $5
The Power were putrid in the final stages of last year and haven’t exactly improved their list. They only have to drop two spots to finish in the bottom four and were plummeting like a broken escalator to finish 2025.
North Melbourne to finish top 10 – $4.50
Call me crazy, given the Roos haven’t finished higher than 16th since Nat Fyfe last won a Brownlow. But the Roos have a cozy draw and are serious value here. Then again, betting on North to win is probably not a sound strategy.
Carlton to finish 9th or 10th – $7
Yes, Charlie Curnow now wears red and white, but the Blues had another bad injury and availability run last year and have directly gone about fixing their boring ball movement woes in the off-season. Carlton finished 11th last year so don’t have far to climb and seem like a team destined to be right on the edge of the wildcard zone.
GULLAN’S VALUE BETS
Port Adelaide to make the top 10 – $2
Sorry Barnsey but have you seen their draw? They play Essendon, North Melbourne and West Coast twice. Yep, TWICE. There’s six wins and the only finalist they play twice is cross-town rival Adelaide where the games are usually closer than ladder positions dictate. A new coach spike plus full seasons from Todd Marshall and Jack Lukosius will help.
GWS Giants Top 4 – $3
Get on the Clarry train. Clayton Oliver will tear it up at his new club and with one of the best draws ever – they play fewer 2025 finalists twice than wooden spooners West Coast. They have Gold Coast (who they always beat) and Hawthorn as the double-up games. Start mortgaging the house.
Western Bulldogs Top 6 – $3.20
Sam Darcy a year older, a year stronger, a year wiser. Enough said.
BARNES’ NO-GO BETS
Adelaide to make the top 4 – $2.2
Backing the minor premiers to make top four seems a no-brainer, but the Crows had both a great fixture and great availability last year. The fixture will tighten up and availability often reverts to the mean. Feels like Adelaide will be hard pressed to ride as high next year.
Brisbane minor premiers – $3.60
Fair enough for the bookies to back the Lions after back-to-back flags. But the Lions have won five flags since the merger and zero minor premierships. You would think the team being a year older makes top spot even less likely.
GULLAN’S NO-GO BETS
Geelong Minor Premiers – $4.10
The Cats are still going to be a very good team but with Patrick Dangerfield a year older, no new ruckman brought in and the second-year syndrome a chance to hit Bailey Smith, there will be some peaks and troughs next year. Plus they have the draw from hell with four double-up games against this season’s finalists.
Gold Coast Top 4 – $2.70
We were all excited to see them make the finals but becoming a consistently elite team capable of winning enough games to finish top four seems a stretch. Teams will do more homework on what worked for the Suns over the summer and we’re not sure Jamarra Ugle-Hagan is going to generate the spike.
Originally published as AFL top-six and top-10 markets revealed for 2026 as Dons written off, Pies tipped to fall
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