AFL ladder: Who will finish in top eight, week one finals match-ups

The race for September is nearly won and run with just one week to go in the season. Check out the live ladder and likely week one finals fixtures, as well as every club in contention’s path.

MELBOURNE, AUSTRALIA - AUGUST 17: Nick Daicos (left) and Craig McRae, Senior Coach of the Magpies celebrate during the 2024 AFL Round 23 match between the Collingwood Magpies and the Brisbane Lions at The Melbourne Cricket Ground on August 17, 2024 in Melbourne, Australia. (Photo by Michael Willson/AFL Photos via Getty Images)

The fight for a spot in the AFL’s top eight has taken yet another twist amid a thrilling round.

Essendon’s season was put to bed by the ladder-leading Swans, while the Dockers are now in danger of missing the finals after their tight loss to GWS.

The Pies kept themselves in the finals picture with a heart-stopping win over the Brisbane Lions, and the Saints shook up the finals picture by defeating Geelong on Saturday night.

*SCROLL DOWN FOR THE FULL BREAKDOWN OF THE FINAL ROUND AND PRECICTED FINALS*

Meanwhile, Carlton went Perth with its finals hopes on the ropes, knocking off West Coast with an undermanned squad to jump back into the top eight ahead of a final round clash with the Saints.

Hawthorn continued their hot form and almost locked away finals footy with a win over the Tigers, and the Dogs have all but secured a top eight spot.

Brisbane’s loss to Collingwood almost assuredly knocks them out of top four calculations, with Geelong playing West Coast at home next weekend to lock up the double chance.

The Power can lock away a top-two finish in Perth next weekend after their fiery Showdown 56 win.

It will be all to play for across the AFL in round 24.

1. SYDNEY

16-6, 64 pts, 126.3%

R24: v Adelaide, SCG

Barring a catastrophic loss to the Crows, the Swans will finish on top for the first time since 2016. The next question is who will they host in a qualifying final? All eyes are on Tom Papley’s recovery from an ankle ligament injury suffered on July 21.

Will finish: 1st

2. PORT ADELAIDE

15-7, 60 pts, 114.2%

R24: v Fremantle, Perth Stadium

The Power are in line to host a qualifying final, but they’ll need a win over Fremantle in the final round to seal it. If they lose, there’s a chance GWS leapfrogs them into second place. As long as Port Adelaide wins, it should finish second. For Port Adelaide to finish fourth, a Power defeat and a Geelong win against West Coast would need to have a combined margin of about 22 goals.

Highest finish: 2nd

Lowest finish: 3rd

Dan Houston, Zak Butters and Jase Burgoyne of the Power celebrate the final siren of the Showdown. Picture: Mark Brake/Getty Images.

3. GWS GIANTS

15-7, 60 pts, 15-7, 111.7%

R24: Western Bulldogs, Mars Stadium

Unless the Giants absolutely torch the Dogs in the last game of the season, their top-two hopes are pinned to the result of Port Adelaide’s trip to Fremantle. A loss could open the Giants up to slipping to fourth, but they won’t fall out of the top four.

Highest finish: 2nd

Lowest finish: 4th

4. GEELONG

56 points, 14-8, 107.7%

R24: West Coast @GMHBA Stadium

Geelong dropping the game against the Saints opens them up to potentially falling out of the top four, but a win over West Coast at home in round 24 will seal the double chance for them. They could jump into third, or even second, with a big win over the Eagles, but would also need Port Adelaide and GWS to drop their final games of the season.

Highest finish: 2nd

Lowest finish: 8th

5. BRISBANE

54 points, 13-1-8, 121.6%

R24: Essendon @Gabba

Losing to Collingwood has likely cost Brisbane a top-four spot, with Geelong the only side the Lions can catch now. But with the Cats hosting the Eagles, Brisbane looks locked into a 5th-placed finish. A loss could see the Lions tumble out of a home final, but they won’t miss the eight due to a strong percentage.

Highest finish: 4th

Lowest finish: 8th

6. WESTERN BULLDOGS

52 points, 13-9, 123.8%

R24: GWS Giants @Mars Stadium

A massive win over North Melbourne has boosted the Bulldogs percentage, but it might not matter for much if they can’t beat GWS next week. A win secures a home elimination final, unless somehow Geelong and Brisbane both lose their round 24 games. A loss would mean they could fall out of finals, but Hawthorn, Carlton and Fremantle would all need to win in the last round.

Highest finish: 4th

Lowest finish: 9th

Marcus Bontempelli and the could still miss finals. Picture: Michael Willson/AFL Photos via Getty Images.

7. HAWTHORN

52 points, 13-9, 111.8%

R24: North Melbourne @UTAS Stadium

The convincing win over Richmond has set up a Hawks finals berth, but they’ll have to get there without Will Day, who suffered a collarbone injury on Sunday. Hawthorn could still finish fourth, but only if Geelong, Brisbane and Western Bulldogs all lose next week. They could still miss finals with a loss and wins to Carlton and Fremantle, but an elimination final awaits.

Highest finish: 4th

Lowest finish: 9th

8. CARLTON

52 points, 13-9, 110.7%

R24: St Kilda @Marvel Stadium

The win over West Coast while decimated by injury kept the Blues’ finals hopes alive, but Carlton still needs to beat St Kilda to have control of their destiny. A loss opens the Blues up to be overtaken by Fremantle, or potentially even Collingwood if the Magpies win convincingly over the Demons.

Highest finish: 4th

Lowest finish: 10th

9. FREMANTLE

50 points, 12-1-9, 113.7%

R24: Port Adelaide @Optus Stadium

The Dockers will know if they can make finals or not when the ball bounces in round 24. Fremantle must win to make the eight, but they also need one of Western Bulldogs, Hawthorn and Carlton to lose in round 24.

Highest finish: 5th

Lowest finish: 11th

Jeremy Sharp and the Dockers find themselves outside the top eight. Picture: Jason McCawley/AFL Photos/via Getty Images.

10. COLLINGWOOD

48 points, 11-2-9, 100.1%

R24: Melbourne @MCG

It would be a massive ask for the Magpies to make the eight, with a big win over Melbourne required on Friday night, followed by either a Hawthorn or Carlton capitulation. They would also need the Dockers to lose to Port Adelaide at home. Plenty would need to happen, but it’s a ‘never say never’ mentality.

Highest finish: 7th

Lowest finish: 12th

Originally published as AFL ladder: Who will finish in top eight, week one finals match-ups