AFL fixture 2023: Predicted ladder after first six rounds

A stacked early AFL fixture of marquee games in 2023 could be the undoing of some much-scrutinised teams, writes Jon Ralph.

The AFL has discovered Carlton is that rarest of beasts: box-office gold in every conceivable scenario.

Like the NFL’s Dallas Cowboys and England’s national soccer team, Carlton is glorious to watch when the bandwagon is full and the wind is at their back.

But should they lose in ghoulish, agonising last-gasp circumstances, to be honest, they became even more captivating.

The league cannot lose on Carlton.

The AFL has gone all-in on the Blues in 2023, with a fixture stacked with prime-time clashes for a team that was a ratings sensation even when it mined new depths of mediocrity.

SCROLL DOWN FOR THE FULL ROUND 6 PREDICTED LADDER

There is the feeling of a beast awakening:

A CLUB that topped AFL home attendances;

A TEAM that started 9-3 before a disastrous late fade out; and

A MARKETING dream that will take the reigning Coleman medallist and Brownlow medallist into its round 1 season-opener against Richmond.

It is why they have seven Thursday and Friday clashes in the first 15 weeks, compared to three from a St Kilda side that finished a single ladder spot below them with only one fewer win.

And if predicting the relative strength of draws in any given season is a fool’s errand, Chris Scott’s oft-repeated aphorism about the fixture should put the Blues on the fast-track to another hot start to the year.

Scott reasons that it isn’t who you play twice in the fixture, it is when you play a given team.

Carlton’s double-ups of the finals sides are Collingwood and Melbourne (as well as GWS, West Coast, Gold Coast and St Kilda) and it isn’t afforded the luxury of playing North Melbourne, Adelaide, Essendon or Hawthorn twice.

But Carlton should set its sights on a 6-1 or 5-2 start to the season because those first seven weeks pit the Blues against a host of sides that will surely be still finding their footing.

After a pair of blockbusters against Richmond and Geelong, the Blues play GWS (Giants Stadium), North Melbourne (Good Friday), Adelaide (Adelaide Oval), St Kilda (Marvel), and West Coast (Optus Stadium).

Four of those teams finished in the bottom five, none of those five sides played finals, three of them sacked their coaches, none of them are tipped to play finals next year.

GWS has ripped apart its midfield and changed its coach, North Melbourne won two games in 2022, Adelaide has won 18 games in three seasons, St Kilda could still be missing Max King and West Coast’s recent form is catastrophic.

Adelaide at Adelaide Oval is a danger game but if Michael Voss cannot have his Blues at fever pitch for that match after last year’s galling 29-point loss as Ben Keys torched Adam Saad, he isn’t trying.

Even round 1 against much-hyped Richmond presents opportunity because if Damien Hardwick has any teething problems integrating Jacob Hopper and Tim Taranto, they will be in the early weeks of the season.

Patrick Cripps and Carlton should get off to another strong start in 2023. Picture: Robert Cianflone/Getty Images via AFL Photos

All of it is against the backdrop of a pre-season that has never been shorter – senior players from most clubs only returned last week – and a pre-season competition shrunk to only a single week.

As recently as 2016 teams played three official games over four weeks and yet as Carlton adds new layers to its strategies those teams with new coaches will still be establishing the DNA of their game plans.

So, how will the first six rounds of the season play out given our task is to predict their outcome a full three months before the opening bounce?

The very nature of the stacked early fixture as the league maximises marquee games to start the year with momentum means some much-scrutinised teams could start the year 0-2.

Ken Hinkley’s Port Adelaide takes on Brisbane then Collingwood, Brisbane faces the Power then Melbourne, Collingwood faces Geelong then the Power, Richmond has Carlton then Adelaide away, Melbourne has the Dogs then Brisbane (Gabba).

The proverbial could hit the fan early for some of those sides.

Collingwood has an eternity to rehabilitate Jordan De Goey (shoulder surgery) and Darcy Moore (bone infection) while Nick Daicos’s recent achilles issue is considered minor.

But Collingwood fans would be aware having two of the club’s stars out of action for a month even before the bruising match simulation sessions of January and February is far from ideal.

So let’s call it a watching brief.

Essendon faces a tough first six rounds as the Bombers adjust to Brad Scott’s new game plan. Picture: Darrian Traynor/Getty Images

St Kilda’s first six weeks could be a Max King-free zone after a shoulder reconstruction and his absence might be costly given they take on many of the clubs around them they must beat to play finals (Fremantle, Bulldogs, Essendon, Gold Coast, Collingwood, Carlton).

Hawthorn is already being locked in by many as a bottom-four certainty given the senior exodus under Sam Mitchell.

Yet a team that didn’t seem overly concerned with winning – James Sicily was thrown onto a wing late in the year to fit Emerson Jeka into the team – still achieved eight victories in a year when Changkuoth Jiath missed eight games and Mitch Lewis seven.

One of only four teams to beat Geelong last year, the Hawks will be written off by everyone and surprise often in another developing year after adding Karl Amon, Cooper Stephens and Lloyd Meek.

The volatility of a season that saw Brett Ratten, Ben Rutten and Leon Cameron jettisoned heralds a 2023 year ripe with possibilities.

By round 6 this year Ken Hinkley’s Power were 0-6 and dead in the water. A stacked first 54 games of next season means nothing would surprise 12 months on.

The Magpies could be slow out of the blocks with their tough early draw in 2023.

JON RALPH TIPS THE FIRST SIX ROUNDS

Predicted winners in capitals

ROUND 1

Richmond v CARLTON, MCG

GEELONG v Collingwood, MCG

NORTH MELBOURNE v West Coast, Marvel Stadium

Port Adelaide v BRISBANE, Adelaide Oval

MELBOURNE v Western Bulldogs, MCG

GOLD COAST v Sydney, Metricon Stadium

GIANTS v Adelaide, Giants Stadium

HAWTHORN v Essendon, MCG

St Kilda v FREMANTLE, Marvel Stadium

ROUND 2

Carlton v GEELONG, MCG

BRISBANE v Melbourne, Gabba

COLLINGWOOD v Port Adelaide

Adelaide v RICHMOND, Adelaide Oval

WESTERN BULLDOGS v St Kilda, Marvel Stadium

FREMANTLE v North Melbourne, Optus Stadium

SYDNEY v Hawthorn, SCG

ESSENDON v Gold Coast

WEST COAST v Giants, Optus Stadium

ROUND 3

WESTERN BULLDOGS v Brisbane, Marvel Stadium

Collingwood v RICHMOND, MCG,

HAWTHORN v North Melbourne, UTAS

Giants v CARLTON, Giants Stadium

ST KILDA v Essendon, MCG

PORT ADELAIDE v Adelaide, Adelaide Oval

Gold Coast v GEELONG, Metricon Stadium

MELBOURNE v Sydney, MCG

FREMANTLE v West Coast, Optus Stadium

ROUND 4

BRISBANE v Collingwood, Gabba

North Melbourne v CARLTON, Marvel

ADELAIDE v Fremantle, Adelaide Oval

Richmond v WESTERN BULLDOGS, MCG

ST KILDA v Gold Coast, Marvel

SYDNEY v Port Adelaide, SCG

ESSENDON v Giants, Marvel

West Coast v MELBOURNE, Optus

GEELONG v Hawthorn, MCG

ROUND 5

Adelaide v CARLTON, Adelaide Oval

Fremantle v GOLD COAST, Norwood

Sydney v RICHMOND, Adelaide Oval

North Melbourne v BRISBANE, Adelaide Hills

Essendon v MELBOURNE, Adelaide Oval

PORT ADELAIDE v Western Bulldogs, Adelaide Oval

GEELONG v West Coast, Adelaide Oval

HAWTHORN v Giants, Norwood Oval

St Kilda v COLLINGWOOD, Adelaide Oval

ROUND 6

FREMANTLE v Western Bulldogs, Optus Stadium

PORT ADELAIDE v West Coast, Adelaide Oval

GIANTS v Brisbane, Manuka

Geelong v SYDNEY, GMHBA Stadium

Hawthorn v ADELAIDE, UTAS

CARLTON v St Kilda, Marvel

GOLD COAST v North Melbourne, Metricon

MELBOURNE v Richmond, MCG

COLLINGWOOD v Essendon, MCG

Originally published as AFL fixture 2023: Predicted ladder after first six rounds