AFL draft news: Will 170cm Nick Watson buck the trend of small forwards being draft sliders?

How small is too small? Arguably the most talented player in this year’s pool stands at 170cm in what looms as a huge test of just how much importance clubs place on height. See how the top-10 could play out here.

Nick Watson. Picture: Graham Denholm/AFL Photos via Getty Images.

Nick “Bulldog” Watson is the draft crop’s most captivating player.

He might not have the fend-off and powerful physique of Harley Reid or the versatile gifts of key tall Daniel Curtin.

But with his dancing feet, quicksilver hands and penchant for kicking jaw-dropping goals you simply cannot take your eyes off him.

The issue for Watson, a star for the Eastern Ranges, Caulfield Grammar and Vic Metro, is a trend that stamps players of his stature with a warning sign that might as well be imprinted across their forehead.

Do not take in the top ten of a national draft.

By AFL standards, Watson is tiny.

Remember the name Nick Watson.

Set to be an early pick in next year’s draft, and he kicks freakish goals like this for fun 🎯#AFLDraftpic.twitter.com/0yAI6QFclF

— Dan Batten (@danbatten_) June 12, 2022

Just 170cm, the same height range that pushed Caleb Daniel (171cm) all the way to pick 46, the brilliant Kysaiah Pickett (171cm) down to pick 12 and Liam Baker into the rookie draft (pick 18).

But in a top 10 with just one star tall in WA swingman Curtin (the Suns will take academy prospects Jed Walter and Ethan Reid) and with a trio of clubs with very unique needs, can clubs afford to overlook this eye-catching teenager?

Can they skip a player who might be the Boomer Harvey of this draft crop for another dime-a-dozen midfielder with nice skills but none of the X factor?

So while the Reid main event will continue on — with the Roos now the only club with a legitimate shot at trading up to pick 1 — which of North Melbourne, Hawthorn, or Melbourne will pull the trigger on a player sure to be box office gold?

Nick Watson has been tipped as a top-10 draft pick. Picture: Morgan Hancock/AFL Photos.

“Size doesn’t matter. It’s the Boomer Harvey principle,” says AFL talent manager Kevin Sheehan.

“If you are good enough you are big enough. But in recent years we have seen guys of that size like Kozzie Pickett and Cody Weightman taken in the teens. This could be the time they target someone like Watson and go earlier than in the past.”

As Sheehan says, even when Izak Rankine was taken off the board at pick 3 it was as a 181cm small forward, with Josh Rachele (pick 6) 179cm.

Yet as the AFL’s academy boss Tarkyn Lockyer said this week, there comes a time when a player’s height drifts into the background when they have such prodigious gifts.

Recruiters witnessed them first-hand in four Vic Metro games kicking four, one, five and four goals as Watson franked his form on the biggest junior stage.

2023 NAB AFL Draft prospect Nick Watson comes through like a thief in the night!

Watch the game live: https://t.co/Obf6bu7Ajcpic.twitter.com/Gejcv47lrL

— AFL (@AFL) June 25, 2022

He has flashing pace and the vertical leap to become a one-on-one marking target who terrorised small defenders when the ball hit the ground.

Yet when rivals put bigger defenders on him he judged the ball so well in the air at times he screeched to a halt and as his opponent ran under the ball he marked in space.

At Caulfield Grammar Watson came out of the goal-square in school footy and takes hangers on the heads of opponents as the adoring crowd moves from end to end between quarters to watch him up close.

But recruiters still believe he needs to work harder at his pressure, to build a bigger tank, with some noting a quieter game for the AFL Academy against the Carlton reserves in May as a pointer to his challenges ahead.

“Yeah, he is a pretty well-rounded player,” Lockyer says.

“People talk about his size, which does warrant consideration. But if you look at players who are smaller in size through their whole journey they have had to find a way to evolve and still impact games.

Tarkyn Lockyer has lauded Nick Watson’s talent. Picture: Sarah Reed/AFL Photos/via Getty Images.

“The thing about Nick is you can’t help watching him. Any time he is near the ball there is that excitement and sense that something could happen. He is a player who people will go to the footy to watch.

“He has areas of growth but there is such a value placed on forward 50 pressure in the AFL. Even when he isn’t hitting the scoreboard he is chasing and tackling and putting fear into defenders’ minds with what he could potentially do.”

Clubs also love that Watson has enough pace and vertical leap to be a mark-and-lead player at only 170cm. Some want to see him work harder and believe the jump from under 18s to AFL will be massive for him but no one doubts his talent pic.twitter.com/kO94OfOgHJ

— Jon Ralph (@RalphyHeraldSun) August 17, 2023

The storylines at his potential landing spots at North Melbourne (currently pick 2), Hawthorn (pick 3) and Melbourne (pick 4) write themselves.

The new ‘Boomer’ Harvey, dragging the fans in at North Melbourne with a club desperately needing some pizzazz and marketing appeal.

Sam Mitchell, who was overlooked himself as a player given his pace and height (a relatively statuesque 180cm compared to Watson), securing Watson at Hawthorn as a Cyril Rioli-style player to replace Luke Breust.

Or Melbourne creating footy’s most spectacular forward line with the Pickett-Watson duo.

Eastern Ranges talent manager Danny Ryan says it is the “Bulldog” nickname that has stuck with Watson from his early days rather than the alliterative “Wizard” the media has handed him.

As Watson returns to Coates League action after school and Vic Metro duties, Ryan is fascinated by where Watson lands, given it would be so easy to overlook him on the grounds of his size.

“You can see why they called him Bulldog. He is tenacious and he scoots down low through the contest,” he said.

“His height has always been a talking point but he has an unbelievable turn of speed, he takes an excellent high mark, he is great at ground level. He uses the ball so well and when he has gone to half back he has high-20 possession tallies and uses it so well.

“The recruiters keep their cards close to their chests, but they would be thinking do we take him now or hold off? He is that good, and I am biased because he is part of our program but I would take him as quickly as I could. Harley Reid is an outstanding prospect and there is Walter and Duursma so there is a lot for clubs to think about. But he just brings an element no one else has got.”

Watson has no shortage of suitors, all of whom are prepared to wax lyrical about his gifts, character and capacity to enliven the league.

But come November 20 one of them will have to actually call his name out, aware they would be bucking AFL trends to select footy’s next great showman.

HOW THE TOP 10 COULD PLAY OUT

The half-dozen AFL recruiters canvassed on Thursday believe the Roos are the only club with a shot at trading up the No. 1 overall pick, despite GWS and Melbourne being keen to enter the Harley Reid equation.

Some believe Curtin is clearly the No. 2 best prospect available (Jed Walter will go to the Suns, and the Roos are a good chance to force a Suns bid given he would have fit them perfectly as a key position need).

The Roos could trade up for Reid (handing the Eagles the Port Adelaide first-rounder they have from the Jason Horne-Francis trade), or just let West Coast take Reid and keep pick two.

At pick two they would surely have to consider Curtin given their desperation to shore up their defensive stocks.

North Melbourne could have the No. 3 live pick with Ben McKay free agency compensation (and could secure NGA prospect Ryley Sanders).

But after Reid and Suns-bound Walter, Watson is in a tight group of four with Tasmanian midfielders Colby McKercher and Ryley Sanders and 189cm Vic Country mid-forward Zane Duursma.

Mikayla Williamson, Harley Reid, Amy Gaylor and Nick Watson. Picture: Morgan Hancock/AFL Photos/Getty Images.

Rivals believe Hawthorn loves Duursma as that mid-sized marking forward to help Mitch Lewis, with the Hawks also putting significant time into researching Watson.

Duursma is clearly more of a need for the Hawks, who have added a trio of midfielders in Jy Newcombe (mid-season pick), Josh Ward (pick 7, 2021) and Cam Mackenzie (pick 7, 2022) in the past three years.

If Watson did drift to Melbourne’s pick, the Demons are admirers of him and basically have a free hit with a pick (currently pick 5) they took from Fremantle in the Luke Jackson trade.

Having taken Matthew Jefferson at pick 15 last year as a developing key tall they could easily bolster their forward line with Watson.

The Western Bulldogs have picks 11 and 17 and would love to trade into that top six (to get one of Reid, Watson, McKercher, Duursma, Sanders) with the Suns the only likely option for them to trade with.

But the Dogs want another elite inside mid, even while rivals wonder why they don’t use the one they have in Bailey Smith in that position.

Even GWS is interested – they currently have Richmond’s pick 6 and their own pick 9 – but are aware Watson will likely be gone by then.

All of Reid, Curtin, McKercher, Sanders and Duursma will handsomely reward their clubs with stalwart service and yet there is no doubt they are safe, conventional choices.

Watson might be something rarer and more precious.

In an era where clubs value 190cm strong-bodied mids and 205cm key talls we will wait until November to witness which club will put their name to a throwback to the former era.

Originally published as AFL draft news: Will 170cm Nick Watson buck the trend of small forwards being draft sliders?