AFL draft favours players picked at the right spot, says SANFL talent manager Brenton Phillips
Being successful is not always about talent, but where you are selected in the AFL draft, says SA talent guru Brenton Phillips.
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SANFL talent manager Brenton Phillips believes the AFL draft has a “sweet spot’’.
And he said first round picks who land in the right positions and go to the right clubs have a far greater chance of success, particularly early in their careers.
The highly-respected Phillips, who has overseen the development of SA’s best teenage talent for more than a decade, told The Lowdown AFL Draft Podcast that players who are drafted between selections seven and 12 have a significant advantage over those who get taken in the top six and from picks 13 to 18.
He reasons that players who get selected at the top of the draft often have to do things hard because they usually go to struggling clubs.
Players who get picked late in the first round normally find themselves at strong clubs – given the draft is in reverse premiership ladder order – and can take time to find their feet and play an AFL game because their club’s playing list is usually strong.
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Phillips argues that those players who get picked in the middle of the first round, the “sweet spot’’ as he calls it, have the ideal scenario because their clubs are “on the move’’ but have holes that need immediate filling by their top draft choices.
“This is just my theory but I think it stands up,’’ he said.
“If you get picked from one to six as a player you are in a difficult window because you obviously are a very good footballer, there is no question about that.
“But unfortunately sometimes you go to a club that is struggling to win games and it’s a hard game to play when you go to an environment where, one, the team is struggling to win, and, two, the players around you aren’t at the same level as the top echelon clubs.
“If you go from pick seven to 12, to me that is your sweet spot, because those clubs are on the move somewhere, they are going, so you are going into an environment that can lend you to jumping in and playing a role, like (AFL Rising Star runner-up) Connor Rozee did for Port Adelaide this year.
“He played the role that they wanted him to play and he played it very well because he’s a very talented footballer, and away he goes.
“In contrast, (fellow South Australian) Jack Lukosius goes to Gold Coast at pick two, they are trying to find a spot for him, moving him all over the place, and they are struggling to win, so his numbers aren’t going to look as good.
“At the other end of the spectrum, if you go in that 13 to 18 bracket, you are usually going to a side that is hard to break into.’’
Port selected Rozee at pick five after it traded to move up the draft order.
It finished 10th in the season (2018) it selected him, which would usually give it pick nine – the sweet spot Phillips is talking about.
“So I maintain that no matter how good you are, you need a bit of luck in this game,’’ he said.
“You generally need to get to the right club, that has the right environment, that has the right development opportunities for you and then be lucky in terms of getting an AFL game at the right time.
“For someone like Jack Lukosius, knowing him like I do, he’ll take it all in his stride and get on with it.
“But it can affect a lot of other players.’’