AFL coaching legend Mick Malthouse reveals his top eight for the 2021 AFL season
Mick Malthouse believes a finals drought will finally be broken in 2021 but it’s not the team you think. See his predicted top eight for 2021.
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We all know that the final eight never stays the same from year to year, so it’s easy to predict a change.
The hard part, especially after a season like the one we had last year, and just one round of the pre-season Community Series, is choosing who will make way for the potential finalists.
On the surface of last year it’s hard to see anyone falling out. The clubs that remain solid through youth or additions will more than likely cement a top-four spot early on.
I see Richmond, Geelong, Port Adelaide and the Brisbane Lions claiming those bragging rights.
St Kilda and Western Bulldogs have improvement in them and will play finals again.
Which leaves West Coast and Collingwood. If there’s two clubs with question marks next to their names, then the Eagles and Magpies are those. Possibly making way for full-of-potential Carlton and excitement machine Gold Coast.
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So let’s start from the top.
The Tigers are the Tiges. When the whip gets cracking they’ll be thereabouts. Still. They’re too good a team not to be.
Very rarely do we see a Grand Final team pick up three very good players in the next trade period, but the Cats did just that with Jeremy Cameron, Isaac Smith and Shaun Higgins. All three will add immense improvement.
So it’s hard to fault Geelong, a very worthy Grand Final contestant in 2020, but the reality is it has a lot of players on the wrong side of 30 for AFL football which makes these next two years make-or-break for a premiership.
Port Adelaide will continue to make natural progression through youth development with the likes of Xavier Duursma and Connor Rozee, and a fine trade to bring in Aliir Aliir.
Port has been lacking that one player with height on the backline to counter the big forwards of the better sides, so Aliir might be the missing piece of the puzzle.
Brisbane was blessed with a lot of games at home last year, so travelling more often this season is already a test.
The Lions have added to their weaponry with Joe Daniher who is a huge addition. But losing Cam Rayner to an ACL injury is rough, just when the 21-year-old was looking the goods to go to the next level.
New recruits Adam Treloar and Stefan Martin will make the Western Bulldogs a better side.
Treloar in an already talented midfield and Martin to back up exciting ruck Tim English, makes the Dogs a genuine chance at a premiership tilt.
They could have done with an Aliir-type player because they do lack an A-grade tall back. Ryan Gardner and Zaine Cordy are good, but don’t always match it with the big key forwards of the better teams. Alex Keath is more a secondary tall back.
Question marks remain whether St Kilda can live up to expectations.
Injuries haven’t been kind to the Saints already, with James Frawley and Jarryn Geary set to miss an extended period of time and Dylan Roberton forced to retire.
Plus one of my favourite players, Rowan Marshall, is out indefinitely with a foot injury and now Paddy Ryder is taking a leave of absence due to personal reasons. This leaves St Kilda depleted in the ruck division.
Collingwood remains an enigma.
In the space of a week in last year’s finals series we saw the Pies at their very best in Perth against West Coast, then at their ugliest against Geelong.
A few of their key players are in the twilight of their careers, namely captain Scott Pendlebury, ball magnet Steele Sidebottom, and exciting defender Jeremy Howe coming off a knee.
But I suspect that Brodie Grundy will be dominant once again, if not the most dominant ruckman this year.
What the outside world sees as trouble on the inside doesn’t usually affect the players.
It’s only when issues close to the playing and coaching group go awry that it has a detrimental effect.
Nathan Buckley in his final year of contract will only become a perceived problem if Collingwood has a lull in the season. That’s when it will make headlines and become a potential problem. If things are going OK it won’t even be mentioned and will be a non-issue.
The Magpies are good enough to make it. I believe greatly in defence and with a terrific backline they have a solid defensive structure to help them over the line.
But they struggled to score consistently last year and if that hasn’t been effectively addressed, it makes Collingwood vulnerable to stumbling out of the eight.
West Coast’s (and Fremantle’s) hopes will live and die by their Premier Mark McGowan.
If someone sneezes in Victoria he will slam the boarders shut, with very little interest in what that means for the state’s two AFL clubs.
Make no mistake, no team will quarantine in Perth for two weeks just to play the Eagles or the Dockers, so hub life is only a distinct possibility for the West Australian teams.
If that happens, goodbye finals.
West Coast is heavily reliant on four players — Josh Kennedy, Nic Naitanui, Luke Shuey and Jeremy McGovern. Elliot Yeo has groin issues with still no definite return date. Naitanui has had his fair share of injuries, and the others from time to time are starting to show their age.
As exciting as the Eagles are to watch they’ve shown their vulnerabilities, only look at their last match on home turf in 2020.
Carlton’s recruitment has been outstanding. Zac Williams and Adam Saad are instant bolsters to the team.
The Blues have all they need now to be a successful finals side.
Good key-backs with co-captain Sam Docherty well able to lead the mediums from the backline.
Midfield depth, with excitement and stability though Patrick Cripps and Sam Walsh.
And a forward line with multiple key options, Harry McKay, Levi Casboult and Charlie Curnow when he returns from injury, as well as ground ball goal kickers.
The excuses have run out for Carlton NOT to make the eight.
The bolter is Gold Coast. When up and running its consistency will develop with experience.
It has good coverage on each line and Stuart Dew has moulded the team into an enthusiastic, vibrant running machine.
Jarrod Witts is developing into a fine ruckman and captain and exceptional youngsters Matt Rowell and Noah Anderson provide genuine hope and enthusiasm. The eyes of the football world are on them.
If the Suns can remain relatively injury free, they are quite capable of winning the 12 games that will be needed to make the finals.
They could potentially win a premiership before Greater Western Sydney, which wouldn’t have even been considered 12 months ago.
Gold Coast will get beaten, and sometimes badly, but everyone’s second team will give enough excitement to certainly challenge for the eight this season.
I’m highly impressed with Fremantle coach Justin Longmuir and his approach. Caleb Serong, and Adam Cerra are impressive youngsters adding to the Dockers’ depth. I could argue a case for them making the eight, but I’m elevating Gold Coast instead because of the very real chance of Fremantle having to play hub football.
I cannot see Adelaide or North Melbourne advancing beyond the bottom four. And the Hawks and Sydney, both premiership winners not long ago, already appear behind the eight-ball with Hawthorn’s James Sicily out for the year and Jack Gunston a late starter after surgery.
Predictably Lance Franklin will only play the odd game for the Swans, some will be good games, but it’s a shame that we’ve seen his best because niggly leg injuries don’t suddenly get better with age.
It’s hard to know if Essendon and Melbourne’s game styles will garner a genuine attempt at a final-eight berth, or if it’s make believe which we’ve seen so often from both clubs.
Ben Rutten’s game structure against Geelong last weekend looked the real thing, but can it be maintained and built on? The Demons’ still need to get rid of the mirrors in the changerooms.
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