AFL 2024: Mark Robinson predicts how ladder will look after round 24
Who will be the big movers and sliders this AFL season? Mark Robinson predicts how the ladder will look after round 24. See where your team sits.
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Every team starts the season equal, and full of hope.
But how will things look at the end of August?
Chief football writer Mark Robinson predicts the final ladder, from first to 18th.
1st: Brisbane Lions
Beaten by Collingwood in the GF and suddenly they are an afterthought. What rubbish. Tom Doedee strengthens the D50 and Will Ashcroft will add depth to the midfield when they return from injury, while Coleman and Bailey should feel confident about where their games can go. The rest is in pretty good order. Have the best home-ground advantage in the league.
2nd: GWS Giants
The Giants combined top-end talent with willing role players and a game style that not only challenged every team in the competition, but was embraced by the players. Adam Kingsley has to take credit for that. Would be a stunning descent if GWS tumbles down the ladder, but with a back six or seven arguably the best in the game, it’s unlikely.
3rd: Collingwood
A magnificent team who are a joy to watch. Had the jump on the competition in terms of combining attacking football with shutting down the game, but they won’t find it as easy to do that this year because teams will be better acclimatised. Too many good players and too many who play their roles well to suggest a fall from the top four.
4th: Port Adelaide
The Power were cooked and collapsed in September last year, but hope to be fitter when it counts, and look set to have a new forward focus without relying on Charlie Dixon. Youngsters have assumed control. Wing spots an issue, another small forward would be nice, but have filled other needs, namely key defence and ruck. Home court a huge positive.
5th: Carlton
A few issues to start the season (Jacob Weitering and Sam Walsh), but if last year taught the Blues anything, it was what’s required to play big-time finals footy. That will get them back there. It’s small margins between finishing third and seventh, and they are certainly in that group. Stay injury-free, Charlie.
6th: Sydney
The destination club after an October-fest in recruiting. Always an honest club, but does Grundy, Hamling, Jordan and Adams take them from eighth to the promised land? Don’t think so. Not as confident about their F50 as others and, for one, need Warner to awaken to really challenge.
7th: Melbourne
Footy is about margins and Clayton Oliver is a huge margin. If he’s fit, he can be a galvaniser. If not, not sure Melbourne has the midfield depth to go 24 rounds plus some. They are a good side, but the question is whether their time has expired to become a great side. Intriguing will be the tweaked game style to aid the unpredictable F50.
8th: St Kilda
Defence is their strong suit, but Ross Lyon knows that speed is the mantra in today’s footy. They’ve got it. Played finals last year and you can expect improvement from Owens, Wanganeen-Milera, Windhager, Phillipou, King and Henry. F50 is potent, would like another midfield gun and another key defender, but the rest is coming along nicely.
9th: Adelaide
In, out, in, out. Settled on ninth. Game style is very solid, but queries about the mental toughness of players who, last year, beat Carlton, Brisbane Lions and Port Adelaide and lost to Collingwood by one point and two points, and yet still won only 11 games.
Have they got enough good players in the middle of the ground?
10th: Gold Coast
Damien Hardwick has to make a difference at the Suns, doesn’t he? But that’s been said about many great coaches at their new clubs (Barassi, Kennedy, Pagan, Malthouse, for example).
They will be in it for much of the season, but not sure they have the “kill” attitude away from the Gold Coast as much as they do at home.
11th: Essendon
The Bombers have lived off potential for several years, and in 2024 are banking on a post-season get together in the US and the arrival of recruits to make considerable difference. Worry is the F50, consistently stopping the opposition and why they go short so often. Don’t trust them at this stage.
12th: Geelong
Don’t say old, don’t say old … but the truth is the Cats are coming off a stunning 17-year campaign of playing finals footy. There’s internal trust in the youth, and that’s fine, but outside of Dangerfield, are there midfield dynamos at Geelong? Not this year.
13th: Western Bulldogs
Like them but I always wonder what would happen if, God forbid, Bontempelli falls over? Consequently, there is doubt about midfield depth. With Ugle-Hagan older, and Lobb and Sam Darcy as support, could it finally be the right time for Naughton to go back? They need an interceptor and Jamarra just might be able to handle the No.1 mantle in the F50.
14th: Hawthorn
In 2023 they won big games and lost by huge margins. It’s the growing phase, the experts say. In that context, they were still teenagers trying to be men. They need to find better defensive mechanisms to complement their boldness with the ball and if that happens, this 14th predicted positioning might look foolish.
15th: Fremantle
If Melbourne is the most intriguing team, the Dockers are second. Watched too many games last year and was left wondering, what is the trademark of this team, and how does this team play? They have to improve, but how many teams can they jump over?
16th: Richmond
What do you expect when you’re a contender for six years, meaning the top-end talent via the draft is not walking in the door? Have older guns, players trying to establish themselves and youngsters making their way. The competition is tough with that list profile.
17th: North Melbourne
This will be the last time – for a while at least – where it will be predicted the Kangaroos will finish 17th or 18th. Still, they don’t have the talent across the board to challenge for finals. D50 personnel an issue and not enough goalkickers. Yet the kids will bring plenty of smiles for downtrodden Kangaroos fans.
18th: West Coast
It’s the easy pick after the past couple of seasons. The Eagles will improve, or at least need to improve because, for one, Adam Simpson’s wellbeing is at stake. Can he handle another year like the previous years? It’s about small wins along the way.
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Originally published as AFL 2024: Mark Robinson predicts how ladder will look after round 24
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