AFL 2022: Gary Buckenara rates Hawthorn’s list at the end of the 2022 season
At the end of the Alastair Clarkson era, Hawthorn looked a long way off making a return to September. But do we need to bring that timeline forward?
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Hawthorn can be a top-eight team again as soon as next year if the side’s development continues as it did in Sam Mitchell’s first season as coach.
Last year, I predicted it would be five years before the Hawks could be a contender again.
But watching the progress the team has made in 2022, I think it will only be a couple of years before they can be a premiership challenger.
The top-eight beckons next season if the Hawks can continue the rapid development of their emerging young talent and build on their 2022 form.
There were big shoes to fill following the departure of four-time premiership coach Alastair Clarkson, but Mitchell and his coaching team must be given credit for the implementation of the team’s new game plan.
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There have been plenty of positive signs for the Hawks this year and many of their younger players have elevated themselves and made big inroads with their game.
Mitch Lewis, Changkuoth Jiath, Will Day, Dylan Moore, Jack Scrimshaw, Lachlan Bramble, Denver Grainger-Barras, Josh Ward, Ned Reeves, Finn Maginness and Jai Newcombe have all made big steps forward in their personal development.
It has been a credit to them and also to the club’s development program, headed by Andy Collins, who has had a big influence in the role.
Conor Nash I have as a C-grader but he certainly improved in the back half of the year. Playing in that taller-midfield role, he showed a lot and will certainly elevate his ranking this time next year.
Captain-in-waiting James Sicily and Jarman Impey have been a huge bonus for the Hawks now they are fit again.
There were plenty of positive signs for the Hawks this year, but although their performances were competitive all season, ultimately their lack of experience and strength was telling as they ran out of steam late in quarters and late in games.
This year’s draft is quite strong and it might pay to consider seeing what is on offer for a player like Tom Mitchell, who would suit a team like the Kangaroos, while Collingwood could also be in the market for him.
Luke Breust is looking for a longer term contract, so it might be a win-win situation to see what he could get elsewhere and what the Hawks could get in return.
Jack Gunston is weighing up his options as well, but I would keep him if he wants to stay.
But the Hawks must continue on the path of developing their young talent and utilise this strong draft to add more younger talent, rather than be tempted to bring in mature-age recruits
HOW THE RATINGS WORK
At a club level, player ranking is generally based on gradings of A+, A, B+, B, C+, C and the developing players.
My rankings will focus on A, B, C and for the developing 20-year-old and under players will be rated as rising stars (RS) and those that need more time (NMT).
With the younger players, it is important to consider who is coming through and those who need longer to develop.
The most important areas for clubs to look at is how many A and B ranked players they have as well as the rising stars, who I believe should be A and B-grade players in the future.
A
Tom Mitchell, 29, 182cm, 83kg
James Sicily, 27, 186cm, 87kg
B
Mitch Lewis, 23, 198cm, 100kg
Jarman Impey, 26, 178cm, 81kg
Changkuoth Jiath, 22, 185cm, 80kg
Jaeger O’Meara, 28, 183cm, 83kg
Will Day, 21, 189cm, 79kg
Dylan Moore, 22, 178cm, 76kg
Jack Scrimshaw, 23, 193cm, 89kg
Jack Gunston, 30, 193cm, 86kg
Chad Wingard, 28, 183cm, 82kg
Luke Breust, 31, 184cm, 83kg
Finn Maginness, 21, 189cm, 84kg
Ned Reeves, 23, 209cm, 104kg
C
Harry Morrison, 23, 183cm, 81kg
James Worpel, 23, 186cm, 88kg
Sam Frost, 28, 194cm, 94kg
Conor Nash, 23, 197cm, 94kg
Blake Hardwick, 25, 182cm, 81kg
Lachlan Bramble R, 24, 181cm, 80kg
Max Lynch, 23, 200cm, 100kg
Jacob Koschitzke, 21, 196cm, 96kg
Liam Shiels, 31, 183cm, 84kg
Kyle Hartigan, 30, 194cm, 101kg
James Blanck R, 21, 195cm, 95kg
Developing (20 years and under)
Rising stars
Denver Grainger-Barras, 20, 195cm, 85kg
Josh Ward, 18, 183cm, 77kg
Connor MacDonald, 19, 185cm, 83kg
Jai Newcombe, 20, 186cm, 89kg
Needs more time
Ned Long R, 19, 194cm, 92kg
Jai Serong, 19, 193cm, 82kg
Sam Butler, 19, 184cm, 73kg
Tyler Brockman, 19, 181cm, 80kg
Fionn O’Hara R, 20, 186cm, 81kg
Josh Morris, 20, 186cm, 80kg
Max Ramsden R, 19, 203cm, 86kg
Emerson Jeka, 20, 197cm, 93kg
Seamus Mitchell, 19, 181cm, 79kg
Jack Saunders R, 20, 180cm, 76kg
Retired: Ben McEvoy
Delisted: Tom Phillips, Connor Downie, Daniel Howe, Jackson Callow
LIST BREAKDOWN
A-Grade: 2
B-Grade: 12
C-grade: 11
Developing (20 years and under)
Rising Stars: 4
Needs more time: 10
LIST NEEDS
The Hawks must continue to invest in the draft and secure as many top-30 draft picks as possible. They need to get back to recruiting genuine footballers with skills and footy smarts. They gave away too many picks looking for another flag under Clarkson and this limits the draft opportunities when having later picks. The focus should be on recruiting the best available talent in this strong draft, or what they see as their most crucial needs across the ground. A bit more outside pace, endurance and skill would be good. The list has shown some good signs and they have done a good job unearthing young talent with later picks and also uncovered a gem – and potential A-grader – in Newcombe from VFL feeder Box Hill.
James Worpel has gone backwards and I have him as a C-grader. He’s a bit of a rusher when he gets possessions. He can win the footy but he doesn’t use the ball well enough at AFL level.
Tom Mitchell can also be criticised for that and the Hawks probably have too many of those players on their list.
In the modern day game of ‘keepings off’ the skills by hand and by foot under presser are so important.
Newcombe has pushed Worpel out and is one rising star who can certainly get to A-grade level. Connor MacDonald also has the talent, while Josh Ward and Denver Grainger Baras are tracking to a B+ level.
TRADE TARGETS
Hawthorn’s only trade activity this year should be trading out players to get as many top-30 or 40 draft picks in the 2022 draft as they can. It is a strong draft, deep in talent, so I hope they invest in the young talent they’ve recently ignored.
The Hawks will have an early first rounder and they should target another midfielder who uses the ball well. If they move Mitchell on then they’ll need to add to their top-end talent, especially one with good outside pace and skills. I wouldn’t be trading this pick unless the offer was enticing.
But landing a free agent like Port Adelaide wingman Karl Amon would be a win. Amon had nominated Hawthorn as his club of choice ahead of this year’s free agency period. At 27, Amon fits the profile as an experienced classy player that still has many years of good football in front of him. Or what about Brad Hill back to the Hawks? He would add experience, pace, endurance and skill – he fits into a need. But I would not be giving away a high pick, helping the Saints with his contract is enough.
TRADE BAIT
Brownlow medallist Tom Mitchell is one that could suit a top-eight team looking to bolster their inside midfield talent. Mitchell could still potentially net the Hawks a top-25 pick, which would allow them to add another talented younger player if they went down this path. The trouble with Mitchell is finding a worthy buyer – one that’s willing to give up a reasonable pick and pay his salary. The Pies are reportedly interested and if that’s the case then the Hawks need to get this deal done. I think a top 25 pick and maybe paying some of his salary is about right. James Worpel is another worth putting on the hook. A Geelong lad, he might want to try his luck there and could net a second or third round pick in return. The Hawks shouldn’t let Jack Gunston leave for nothing given he’s an unrestricted free agent so I would want to keep him given his experience and what he can bring for younger players. He is still a damaging forward and can play a role helping develop Mitch Lewis. Luke Breust is another one looking for a longer term contract and I would see what clubs are willing to pay as he still has a couple of good years left. If they can’t net a healthy pick then there is no point just letting him walk.
CRYSTAL BALL
The Hawks made a bold decision to replace Alastair Clarkson and anoint Sam Mitchell as coach, but so far the signs indicate the fresh start was a positive move.
The list boasts some exciting young talent, although only three A-graders and 12 B-graders – many of them ageing – is a worry.
Of the 11 C-graders, many of them are depth players only, but I hope some of the 14 developing players can elevate themselves to A or B-grade level.
This will determine how quickly they can become a real challenger again.
I would be looking at the 2022 draft to see how many top-40 selections they can get. Mitch Lewis looks a potential A-grade key-position forward, Jack Scrimshaw has become a Grant Birchall-type player, Jai Newcombe looks a real star and future A-grade midfielder and Dylan Moore is a very dangerous player up forward.
There were promising signs this season as the team was able to start games well, only to often fall away as they got tired. This can be a trait of a younger list, but this will improve with time and another big pre-season or two.
A strong team spirit was evident in their performances in 2022 and next season will be an interesting watch for Hawks supporters as the team continues to mature, gain experience and become more resilient in the contests.
If they can do that, they have the capacity to push for a top-eight spot.
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Originally published as AFL 2022: Gary Buckenara rates Hawthorn’s list at the end of the 2022 season
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