AFL 2022: Gary Buckenara rates Adelaide’s list at the end of the 2022 season
Finals are at least two years away for long-suffering Adelaide fans but how far off are the Crows from contending for a premiership? Don’t hold your breath, list guru Gary Buckenara warns.
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Adelaide is at least two years away from playing finals and five years away from challenging for a premiership.
That’s not what frustrated Crows fans want to hear, but it is the brutal truth about this group.
Under the Matthew Nicks regime, Adelaide has won 18 of 61 games and beaten just four top-eight sides.
That is slow going.
But before hitting the panic button, there are 16 reasons for optimism at West Lakes. They are: Chayce Jones, Ben Keays, Lachlan Murphy, Jackson Hately, Riley Thilthorpe, Josh Rachele, Jordan Dawson, Will Hamill, Sam Berry, Ned McHenry, Harry Schoenberg, Darcy Fogarty, Elliott Himmelberg, Tom Doedee and Lachlan Gollant.
The above names will become leaders of this club and I think there is definitely enough talent there to eventually drive the Crows back into finals.
Can the rise be fast-tracked?
That all depends on these C-graders.
Who from this group has what it takes to develop into a genuine A-grader?
Billy Frampton is a back-up ruckman in my opinion and not an A or B grader, he is depth only.
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Shane McAdam is talented but has been inconsistent, he has the potential to be a B player so he is worth keeping. Wayne Milera is the same.
James Rowe is a small forward with goalkicking ability. He is very good at SANFL but I doubt he will become a B-grade player at AFL level.
Jordon Butts is a key defender that has ability. It is hard to find key defenders and he should develop into a B-grade AFL player, so he is one that they should keep.
Only when that initial group of 16 grows to 25-30 will the real jump up the ladder occur.
The Crows’ win over Carlton in round 19 is a good example of what they are capable of when they play to their potential. But for now, those efforts only come in small doses.
The other option is to bring top talent in via trade, like they did with Jordan Dawson. That deal has been a home run.
He had a terrific year and I think he can become an A-grader but I like to see players back up great years, which is why I still have Rory Sloane as an A-grader despite his injury issues - I still feel that over time he deserves it.
If Dawson performs like he did this year in 2023, then he gets to that A-grade ranking.
Will they have the same success with Izak Rankine? He is going to cost a lot in salary and the Suns won’t be letting him walk to the Crows cheaply.
HOW THE LIST RATINGS WORK
At a club level, player ranking is generally based on gradings of A+, A, B+, B, C+, C and the developing players.
My rankings will focus on A, B, C and for the developing 20-year-old and under players will be rated as rising stars and those that need more time.
With the younger players, it is important to consider who is coming through and those who need longer to develop.
The most important areas for clubs to look at is how many A and B ranked players they have as well as the rising stars, who I believe should be A and B-grade players in the future.
A
Rory Sloane, 32
Rory Laird, 28
Tom Doedee, 25
B
Jackson Hately, 21
Jordan Dawson, 25
Taylor Walker, 32
Ned McHenry, 22
Harry Schoenberg, 21
Darcy Fogarty, 22
Brodie Smith, 30
Elliott Himmelberg, 24
Reilly O’Brien, 27
Fischer McAsey, 21
C
Chayce Jones, 22
Ben Keays, 25
Lachie Murphy, 23
Matt Crouch, 27
Luke Brown, 29
Will Hamill, 21
Mitch Hinge, 24
Billy Frampton, 25
Shane McAdam, 27
Nick Murray, 21
Wayne Milera, 24
James Rowe, 22
Andrew McPherson, 23
Lachie Sholl, 22
Jordon Butts, 22
Kieran Strachan, 26
Josh Worrell, 21
Ben Davis, 25
Paul Seedsman, 30
Brett Turner, 25
Developing (20 years and under)
Rising stars
Riley Thilthorpe, 20
Josh Rachele, 19
Sam Berry, 20
Lachlan Gollant, 20
Needs more time
Luke Pedlar, 20
Jake Soligo, 19
Brayden Cook, 20
James Borlase, 20
Tariek Newchurch, 20
Zac Taylor, 19
Luke Nankervis, 19
Patrick Parnell, 20
LIST BREAKDOWN
A-Grade: 3
B-Grade: 10
C-Grade: 20
Developing – 20 years and under
Rising Stars: 4
Needs more time: 8
LIST NEEDS
Adelaide’s recruiting team should have three areas circled and bolded on the off-season whiteboard: Pace, foot skills and top talent.
I only rate three players on this list as genuine A-graders. That leaves them way too thin.
They should keep in mind the 2022 draft because so much of the top talent is South Australian-based, so trying to balance trading picks for Rankine and even Jason Horne-Francis if they make a play for him will be tricky.
Rankine has expressed his desire to go to the Crows, so that will deplete their draft picks this year, and Horne-France would drain picks this year and maybe next year to get him as well.
Trying to balance this with keeping some top-40 selections will not be easy.
They should be looking to heavily invest in the 2022 draft because so much of the top talent is South Australian-based.
There has been a lot of talk about whether Matt Crouch should look for a trade away from the Crows.
Crouch is a bit one-dimensional as a player. I think he is a bit slow now and he finds it hard to defend when the ball rebounds quickly.
He would not secure a first-round pick, maybe a second round one at best or even a third rounder.
I’d use the same approach for any other veteran who the club thinks has currency but won’t be in the next finals side.
With any extra draft picks, my SA targets would be key forwards Tom Scully and Harry Lemmey, mid/forward Mattaes Philipou, midfielders William Dowling, Kobe Ryan and Adam D’Aloia, forward/ruck Isaac Keeler and ruck Harry Barnett.
TRADE TARGETS
Adelaide’s trade strategy this off-season is simple. The only players they should entertain making offers for are A and B-grade talent. They have more than enough C and D-graders already.
Rankine has told Gold Coast that he wants to return home to Adelaide and play for the Crows, and he is exactly the player they should be targeting. He is a future star.
But I would try and not wipe out my 2022 draft hand if I was the Crows.
Here is what I would be prepared to offer for Rankine.
They will need to use their first-round pick (currently pick 5) to secure Rankine or maybe they can see if the Suns are interested in Crouch and a second-round pick.
Crows fans would love Horne-Francis as well, but whether they could get the two this off-season is another thing.
They would need to offer up a future first-round pick and maybe a Crouch as well.
If they can get both it would definitely clean them out of early picks for a couple of years, but they would be getting very good players on their list that are SA boys and ready to play, so I would definitely look to do that.
CRYSTAL BALL
I expect the Crows to challenge for finals in two years and they can be a contender in five.
So the supporters still need to be patient because this group is developing and it does take time when you invest in those 18 to 23-year-old players.
After eight wins in 2021 and nine this year, they need to reach double figures in 2023.
If they go backwards, the pressure will really start to come on Matthew Nicks.
I think he is doing a great job, but once clubs reach this point of a rebuild, they want to see constant improvement.
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