AFL 2021: How much is damaging Demon Christian Petracca worth?
Christian Petracca might not be quite to the level of Dustin Martin just yet, but he is coming with a bullet, and the Demons face a decision on how much he is worth.
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He looks like the heir to the Dustin Martin throne.
Melbourne’s Christian Petracca might not yet be quite to the level of the brilliant Richmond superstar, who had another 34 possessions and one goal in second or third gear on Thursday night against a woeful St Kilda.
But Petracca, 25, is coming with a bullet to be the next No. 1 player in the game.
And the strength of the Melbourne midfield is only helping propel the game breaker on that journey as the opposition’s past two tags have gone to hard nut Clayton Oliver, helping release the Demons’ dynamic goal kicker to do as he pleases, largely, in the front half of the ground.
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Since Round 1 last year, Petracca has absolutely flourished averaging 26 disposals, 4.4 clearances, and one goal a game.
According to Champion Data, he is ranked No. 1 for score involvements (7.2) of all midfielders and midfield-forwards in the game over the past 12 months.
For scoreboard impact, that stat is a doozy.
And next Saturday night at the MCG, the two best raging bulls in the business will lock horns when Petracca’s Demons face their biggest test of the season against the in-form reigning premier on Anzac Day eve.
The midfield match-up is as juicy as it gets, and the competitor in Martin won’t want to relinquish the crown to the similarly eye-catching Petracca just yet, coming off a career-best 36 disposals and two goals in the win over Geelong on Sunday.
On Friday, Martin and Petracca were the two favourites to win the Brownlow Medal with the bookmakers, ahead of Western Bulldogs’ jet Marcus Bontempelli and Port Adelaide’s Travis Boak.
But while Simon Goodwin will be absolutely thrilled with Petracca’s form leading the Demons to a red-hot 4-0 start to the season, the headache grows by the week in a sense for list manager Tim Lamb.
The question from a contractual perspective is whether Petracca deserves Dusty money, yet?
If Oliver signed for about $800,000 a year for two more this week, the more damaging Petracca is probably worth seven figures or thereabouts, if not for his extra goal kicking ability, versatility and added marketability.
Goodwin can play Petracca one-out in the square and kick four goals Dusty-style whereas Oliver, who leads the competition for contested possessions, is more of your engine-room-only guy.
In any case, the decision Melbourne and Petracca must make is whether to sign this year, most likely for a little bit less, or go the whole hog next year when Petracca will become the most sought-after player in the game as a restricted free agent.
Martin backed himself in in 2017 and had the season of his life before eventually choosing to stay at Richmond over North Melbourne for about $1.25 million over seven years.
But with that decision to hang out comes an intense spotlight, and while Petracca has matured considerably on and off the field in recent years, it is unclear whether he would want that same attention if he remains unsigned beyond this year.
It is expected Carlton’s Patrick Cripps and Bontempelli will both sign at their clubs for a touch less than Martin’s salary this year, ensuring the Blues and Dogs don’t have to shed players to keep their superstar skippers.
But whereas those two players’ clubs are clearly finals contenders, the situation facing Essendon’s Zach Merrett is a tougher one, as the Bombers are several years away from making their move up the ladder, although the signs from last year’s draft are certainly encouraging.
Perhaps the most straightforward or exciting aspect of Petracca’s decision is the Demons appear to be entering their sweet spot. The premiership window looks to be opening.
If the team played above itself in 2018 to make the preliminary final, only to fall flat on its face again over the past two years, there is a lot to like about the defensive system, forward half pressure and territory game, and sharpened conversion rate over the first four weeks of the season.
Martin will leave an incredible legacy at Richmond, helping spearhead the Tigers to three premierships, and three Norm Smith Medals, so far. Certainly, there could be more silverware on both fronts going on Thursday night’s performance.
But if the Demons are going to write a similar fairytale and break the longest premiership drought in the game, Petracca can play the same lead role.
Recent evidence suggests he will be up to it.
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Originally published as AFL 2021: How much is damaging Demon Christian Petracca worth?
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