23 storylines that may define the 2023 AFL season
He has two years of behavoural clauses in his contract but at his best, Jordan De Goey can be one of the most damaging players in the AFL. But has the penny dropped for the Pies star?
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With 73 days until round 1, Glenn McFarlane looks at the 23 storylines that could define the 2023 AFL season.
CAN DUSTIN MARTIN REDISCOVER THE MAGIC?
For all the talk that he might leave Richmond or the game itself after an incredibly tough two years, Dustin Martin chose to stay with both. We’re taking that as the best guide to his 2023 intentions. Some personal and soft tissue issues restricted him to only nine of Richmond’s past 28 games. But Tigers officials couldn’t be happier with his first pre-season block. If his body stays sound, and motivation levels can be high, he can get back to his damaging best.
HAS GEELONG’S ‘LAST DANCE’ GOT AN ENCORE LEFT?
Okay, the Cats have lost their inspirational captain Joel Selwood to retirement, but their squad depth has increased since their 83-point grand final procession. An exceptional trade period (Tanner Bruhn, Jack Bowes and Ollie Henry) and a strong draft (Jhye Clark and company) has Geelong well placed to go back-to-back for the first time in 70 years. Champion Data rates the Cats’ draw as the eighth hardest. While they won’t play at GMHBA Stadium until Round 6, they do have six of their last 10 games down the Highway. A deserved flag favourite.
IS IZAK RANKINE WORTH $800,000 PER SEASON?
Not on what we have seen so far, but that’s not to say that he can’t or won’t be. The immensely-talented Adelaide recruit has four years to prove his worth. The pressure on Rankine in his footy-obsessed home state will be more intense than the relative anonymity of Gold Coast. But the 22-year-old thrives on expectation as we saw in spurts of his 48 games and 57 goals with the Suns. On that pay packet, though, he will need to be at his best.
IS WILL ASHCROFT A RISING STAR LOCK?
The punter in me says he is good value at $4, but Bulldogs big man Sam Darcy ($7) looms as a serious danger. Ashcroft looks like a generational player. Even Lions insiders privately concede he would have played at stages of 2022 if he had been on the list. God bless the father-son rule! Ashcroft and the additions of Josh Dunkley, Jack Gunston and Conor McKenna will put the Lions into the premiership frame again off the back of a strong 2022.
WILL GILLON MCLACHLAN’S FAREWELL TOUR EXTEND BEYOND ROUND 5, 2023?
Surely not, even though AFL chairman Richard Goyder would love Gill to reconsider (he won’t!). Gill will move on after hosting “Gather Round” in Adelaide in round 5. Andrew Dillon and Travis Auld have auditioned on the run while the headhunters have cast the net wide in the corporate world. Surely, we need a decision by the start of the home-and-away season. And while we are at it, it’s time to fill those AFL Commission vacancies too.
HAS THE PENNY FINALLY DROPPED FOR JORDAN DE GOEY? AND COULD HE BECOME ONE OF THE GAME’S MOST DAMAGING PLAYERS?
The first part is the $800,000 question. Only he knows the answer to that. De Goey has two years of behaviour clauses included in his five-year contract, so he must tick those boxes first. He will be 27 next year, so you would hope the penny has dropped. On the second point, if he can replicate his late season form and be at his explosive best on a more consistent basis, the answer is a resounding yes. He is crucial to the Pies’ flag hopes.
HOW MUCH DOES CARLTON’S QUEST FOR ITS FIRST FINALS APPEARANCE IN A DECADE REST ON SAM WALSH’S RECOVERY FROM BACK SURGERY AND A CLEAN BILL OF HEALTH FOR THE GROUP?
This is becoming a big concern for the Blues. Walsh missed round 23 due to a back issue, but has now had pre-Christmas surgery to remove a portion of a bulging disc to relieve pressure on a nerve. Not even the Blues know when he might return, but it could be a lengthy process. Fingers crossed, it’s not as bad as it sounds now. As far as the health of the group goes, the Blues desperately need a change of luck with its player availability. It’s been a tough few years. But if they finally get some luck, they will surely be playing finals. There should be no more excuses, even with Walsh’s delayed start to the season.
WILL THE BRUTAL ST KILDA AND ESSENDON COACH SACKINGS BE WORTH IT IN THE END?
Forget Married At First Sight, the St Kilda and Essendon journeys in 2023 will be the best reality TV shows of the year. Sacked coaches Brett Ratten and Ben Rutten were treated appallingly, but the Saints and Bombers believe the ends justifies the means. Both clubs believe they have the right man now. Ross Lyon 2.0 and Brad Scott 2.0 will be compelling viewing. Can Lyon conjure extra goals (without Max King in the early months) yet maintain his defensive edge? Can Scott reunite a club that hasn’t won a final in almost a generation? Strap yourselves in, thrillseekers!
WILL THERE BE A RESOLUTION TO SATISFY ALL PARTIES IN THE HAWKS’ FIRST NATIONS RACISM PROBE BEFORE ROUND 1?
Forget about round 1, it’s unlikely to happen before the end of next season – if ever. This is such a complex situation that the handing down of the AFL’s independent report on the disturbing allegations – which Alastair Clarkson and Chris Fagan have strenuously denied – is unlikely to be the end of the story. All parties will feel aggrieved no matter the outcome. There is still a lot more to play out throughout 2023.
WILL SYDNEY BE PSYCHOLOGICALLY SCARRED BY THE GRAND FINAL FLOGGING?
Greater Western Sydney hasn’t recovered from 2019; Adelaide imploded after 2017; Port Adelaide struggled for years following 2007. Recent history is littered with the vanquished in grand finals imploding after freezing on the big stage. But take a look at the age bracket of the Swans. We suspect they will be different. Yes, they were terrible on the only day that mattered in 2022, but the relentless Cats would have torn apart anyone in that sort of mood.
CAN HAWTHORN BUCK A RECENT TREND OF ON-THE-RUN RENOVATIONS AND STAGE A SUCCESSFUL TOTAL REBUILD?
A decade ago clubs were prepared to strip it right back and rebuild in the hunt for a premiership. But clubs such as Geelong, Sydney, Collingwood and Richmond have successfully restructured on the run. The Hawks are going “Back to the Future” with a full rebuild. Sam Mitchell was prepared to lose a handful of experienced players to give greater opportunities to young talent. That’s going to make it a lot harder in 2023, but you have to admire Mitchell’s tenacity, belief in the system and in his coaching. That takes real courage!
CAN MAX GAWN AND BRODIE GRUNDY COEXIST AT MELBOURNE?
This is the ultimate risk-versus-reward strategy. If the decision to trade for Brodie Grundy fails, and the tandem act with Max Gawn doesn’t work, there will be a chorus of ‘I told you so’ critics. But if the ruck combination gels, and Grundy-Gawn bromance flourishes, it might be the difference that takes the Demons back to the last Saturday in September. For what it’s worth, we are tipping the latter, as Simon Goodwin and his crew look to make up for a frustrating 2022.
IS A TASSIE STADIUM DEAL EVER GOING TO HAPPEN?
Anyone who listened to a recent radio interview with Federal Minister for Sport Anika Wells would have grave doubts about it happening in the short to medium term. Wells questioned the need for the new stadium in Tasmania – which the AFL is demanding be the cornerstone for a 19th AFL franchise in that traditional footy state. There is a funding shortfall of anywhere between $200m to $400m and it doesn’t look like the Feds are ready to cough up all or most of that, perhaps not in this election cycle. Is it time for the AFL to drop the new stadium stipulation and just give the new team the green light in existing grounds?
HOW QUICKLY CAN ALASTAIR CLARKSON TRANSFORM NORTH MELBOURNE?
There is a sense of renewed purpose and professionalism at Arden St that has players such as Luke Davies-Uniacke committing to new deals and fans excited by what could be ahead. Make no mistake, this could still take some time to translate into on-field results, but the platform is definitely under construction. While the AFL independent probe on the Hawks racism allegations will roll into next year, Clarkson has got to work on putting a good off-field team around him. The Kangaroos have a host of fresh faces ready to start making their mark, including top three draftees Harry Sheezel and George Wardlaw. Now the Kangaroos just need some time to develop.
WHO’S GOING TO WIN THE MEGA TRADE?
Come back and speak to us in five years (at a minimum) and we can get an assessment on who won and lost on the mega trade deal that involved four clubs (North Melbourne, Port Adelaide, West Coast and GWS), two players (Jason Horne-Francis and Junior Rioli) and 14 draft picks. This one will be a talking point for almost the next decade.
CAN JASON HORNE-FRANCIS AND WILLIE RIOLI SAVE KEN HINKLEY’S JOB?
We suspect it won’t just be those two handy acquisitions for Port Adelaide; it will come from the entire group who underperformed last season. Port started last season 0-5 and if that’s the case next year, Ken Hinkley – as good as he has been for the club – will likely be out the door. It’s a massive year for the coach, but he and the recruiting team have put together a group capable of pushing deep into the top eight. Now they’ve just gotta make it happen!
CAN THE GROUP OF 23S AND UNDER – BAILEY SMITH, AARON NAUGHTON, SAM DARCY, JAMARRA UGLE-HAGEN AND CODY WEIGHTMAN – PUT THE DOGS BACK IN THE FLAG FRAME?
“The Bont” is a superstar, but if the Dogs are going to seriously challenge again, the growth of their 23s and under players will be crucial in any move to shift up the ladder. Those five players mentioned above are the future of the Dogs. After making some headlines for the wrong reasons we suspect Bailey Smith will go to a new level in 2023. Aaron Naughton is a tough man to stop wherever you want to play him. Sam Darcy is an untapped talent and Jamarra Ugle-Hagen and Cody Weightman are exciting X-factors for now and the future.
IS THIS THE YEAR THE SUNS MAKE THE FINALS?
We’ve got the Suns missing out again – but only just. They are building, but the jostling for positions within the eight has never been more competitive. That final spot inside the eight could come down to one of Freo, Port Adelaide, the Bulldogs and Gold Coast. One thing we are expecting is for Noah Anderson to recommit to the club sooner rather than later, after his great mate Matt Rowell signed on again in early December. We’re also tipping that Rowell will take his game to new heights in 2023, and that Ben King will show us what we missed out on last year as he puts his knee issues behind him.
CAN LUKE JACKSON GET BACK TO HIS RISING STAR FORM?
He can do better than that. Jackson seemed distracted as much as anything else last season as he dealt with the complex contract issues that rolled on all season. He can just play footy now and he will make a big difference to the Dockers. Will we see Nat Fyfe take on a permanent forward’s role to get the most out of his body? If so, could that give the Dockers the extra 30 to 40 goals they need in attack to keep their push up the ladder alive?
WHICH SIGNATURES MATTER MOST IN 2023?
There are a heap of players either coming into free agency or to their end of their contracts at the end of the season, making for a fascinating year of debate and discussion. Among the names to keep an eye on are Kysaiah Pickett (Melbourne), Tom De Koning (Carlton), Dylan Moore (Hawthorn), Darcy Parish (Essendon), Mason Redman (Essendon), Tom Green (GWS) and Ben McKay (North Melbourne).
ARE THE TIM TARANTO-JACOB HOPPER LATE 2022 TRADES THE EQUIVALENT TO THE DION PRESTIA-TOBY NANKERVIS SUCCESS STORIES LEADING INTO 2017?
The recruitment of Prestia and Nankervis gave the Tigers precisely what they were lacking leading into 2017 and their canny recruiting – and a revamped game style – turned into a premiership droughtbreaker. This time around the Tigers still have a host of flag talent remaining, but were seen to be lacking a couple of key midfielders. Taranto and Hopper fit the bill, so Richmond is going to be very hard to beat.
WHO ARE THE YOUNG GUNS WORTHY OF A CHEEKY $5 BET AT ODDS TO WIN THE BROWNLOW MEDAL?
Who doesn’t love a speculative bet during the festive season. Andrew Brayshaw ($14) looks destined to win a Brownlow at some stage. Chad Warner ($26) might be Sydney’s best player by the end of next season. Nick Daicos did things in his first year we haven’t seen many players do, so you would have to consider a fiver on him at $41, while Bailey Smith ($34) will be fired up for a massive year after encountering some problems in 2022 and Shai Bolton ($81) is tasty odds.
WHO’S GOING TO TOP ROBBIE WILLIAMS?
Robbie Williams might have been Gill’s mic-drop moment? How is the next AFL CEO going to secure – and fund – someone who could top Robbie Williams’ 2022 grand final extravaganza! It won’t be easy. And the phone calls will have to start now, even before we have a new CEO. Good luck!
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