AFL form ladder: The true contenders and pretenders revealed

Don’t be fooled by the Blues’ blowout loss to the Crows last week, writes Matt Forrest. They’re one of the in-form teams in the competition. Read who’s hot and who’s not in our form ladder.

After one of the poorest starts to the season, Carlton is now one of the most in-form team in the country, with the best turnaround in the competition so far.

The Blues sat 16th after the first month of the season, failing to win any of their first four games, but have won three of their last four.

And St Kilda coach Ross Lyon is wary of the strong form from Carlton, despite a terrible showing against Adelaide in round 8.

“(Carlton) has had some really good wins, obviously they’ll be disappointed about the weekend but we know we’re able to respond off a couple of struggles and I think they’re in the same boat,” he said.

“So we’re expecting the best of Carlton, and their last performance at the MCG was fantastic against Geelong.

“They’ve got a really strong midfield in particular and key forwards, so we’ve got our hands full.”

“The challenges keep coming, this week it’s Cripps, Hewett, Walsh, Cerra, it’s pretty brutal in there.”

It’s a change of tune from Lyon, who made an appearance on Channel 7’s Agenda Setters on April 1 and took a subtle jab at the then 0-3 Blues.

Lyon pulled out of the coaching negotiations at Carlton in 2021, with the Blues ultimately landing Michael Voss, with Lyon returning to St Kilda ahead of the 2023 season.

“You make your bed, you lie in it. And I had to lie in mine, and now they’re lying in theirs.”

But Carlton has turned its season around, and despite still sitting 13th on the ladder the Blues are 8th favourite for the flag.

The Blues are in form despite their loss to the Crows. Picture: Michael Klein

St Kilda is currently one win ahead of the Blues, but its odds ($81 at Sportsbet) are far higher than Carlton’s ($26).

But in the past month of football, Carlton has been the third-best team in the AFL, behind only Western Bulldogs and Collingwood, having won 10 of their 16 quarters and holding the third-highest percentage (136.2 per cent).

But while Geelong’s percentage (103.1 per cent) and their quarters won (6 out of 16) are far lower than other contenders, the Cats have found ways to win.

Geelong has won three of its past four games, with all three wins coming against top eight sides.

They are the only team to go undefeated against multiple top-eight sides in the past month.

Fremantle is also undefeated against top-eight sides in its last four games, with the Dockers beating Adelaide.

But the Dockers are 1-2 against bottom 10 teams, having been smashed by St Kilda and losing to Melbourne at the MCG.

The loss to Melbourne has kickstarted the Demons’ spluttering start to the season, having recovered from an 0-5 start to winning their past three games.

The Demons will face Hawthorn on Saturday.

Originally published as AFL form ladder: The true contenders and pretenders revealed