David Penberthy: Does ScoMo realise he’s running for Prime Minister, not treasurer?

Scott Morrison has presented himself so purely as the sensible economic guy, he’s ended up sounding more like a human abacus than someone with a broad vision for the nation, writes David Penberthy.

Bill Shorten and Scott Morrison have the same problem.

It’s a strange one because it’s not normally a problem that afflicts people in politics. Neither of them are any good at talking convincingly for extended periods of time.

In Bill’s case, it’s because he is hopeless at providing meaningful detail about his broad-ranging and ambitious policy agenda.

In ScoMo’s case, it’s because he simply runs out of things to say.

That is the election campaign in a nutshell. An Opposition Leader who risks trying to do too much up against a Prime Minister who isn’t doing much at all.

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For the first couple of weeks of this campaign, I thought Morrison would defy expectations to pull off an unlikely victory. Shorten seemed flimsy on his feet, coupled with the vast nature of the changes he is proposing.

It felt at times that the vastness of the changes was matched only by his inability to explain their economic impact and that weakness plays straight into the Liberals’ preferred turf of economic management.

Australian Prime Minister Scott Morrison and Opposition Leader Bill Shorten before the first leaders forum at the Seven West Media Studios in Perth. Picture: Nic Ellis/AAP

Morrison has done a good job of painting Shorten as an economic flake and has been helped by Shorten’s tetchiness when pressed for detail and by such woolly claims that the cost of doing nothing on climate change outweighs the economic cost of his policy, whatever that tangible cost might actually be.

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But at the halfway mark of the campaign, I’m starting to think Morrison will lose after all. It’s an assessment that was underscored by his performance in the debate earlier this week, in which Shorten arrived with a pile of documents and Morrison came empty-handed, intending only to berate Labor over its management of the economy, while puffing out his own chest as an economic hero.

There seems to be an emptiness at the centre of Morrison’s agenda. In fact, “agenda” is the wrong word as it suggests an overarching ethos that will guide him in running the nation. Instead, Morrison has presented himself so purely as the economic guy that he has ended up sounding more like a human abacus than someone with a broad national vision.

Of course, there are many people who believe running the economy is the be-all and end-all of politics. There are also many who respond with trepidation when presented with the spectre of an activist government. Home insulation and the NBN spring to mind. The problem for Morrison is that those people are already rusted-on Liberal voters.

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The argument that tax cuts and sound economic management is the bedrock of a prosperous society resonates in Toorak, Burnside and Mosman. Less so with swinging voters who, while buying the sound economic management argument, also want to know what extras are in it for them. As a mate of mine who runs a successful medium-sized manufacturing business said to me the other day, ScoMo is the guy who’s arrived for a first date looking very presentable, but he’s forgotten to bring a box of chocolates or a bunch of flowers.

In the same way that the Libs can hammer Labor over its economic incompetence, Labor can claim the Liberals have placed blind faith in market forces to deliver a greater social good. But 2019 feels like a bad time to be arguing for trickle-down economics or that competition guarantees prudent and ethical business conduct.

The absence of wages growth kills the trickle-down theory; over the past five or so years, it feels like all the trickling has been going up. And the scandals in the financial and banking sector show how badly commercial organisations can behave in the absence of regulatory oversight.

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If Morrison can’t find himself another dimension fast, I suspect he will be a goner on May 18.

He should look at John Howard’s record. The reason Howard won repeatedly and is regarded with respect and even affection outside the feral Left-wing parts of our cities is that he governed wholly for middle and aspirational Australia, primarily by focusing on the economy and keeping interest rates down.

But unlike the Liberals under Morrison, Howard was also happy to hand back cash to average people, not just in the form of tax cuts, but for life-changing events such as the baby bonus and the first homebuyers grant.

Some people would call that cynical vote-buying, others nothing more than a justified return of some of our hard-earned tax dollars. Whatever the case, Howard always showed middle Australia some hip-pocket love.

And if Morrison can’t do that in the coming fortnight, undecided voters will be tempted to chance their arm on the other guy because they want a whole-of-government vision. Shorten’s missteps over negative gearing or climate policy can be ameliorated by the fact that he is passionate about cancer sufferers and funding education, because they’re the sort of nuts-and-bolts service issues that people in suburbia want to see.

Morrison sounds more like he is running as treasurer, not Prime Minister, and I think he’ll struggle to keep that coveted job as a result.

@penbo