The Adelaide suburbs where tenants could decide the outcome of the next state election

The next election could be won or lost by those living in our state’s most marginal seats, where the votes of SA’s battling tenants may speak louder than words.

The next election could be won or lost by those living in our state’s most marginal seats, where the votes of SA’s battling tenants may speak louder than words.

MCG Quantity Surveyors reveals rental affordability is at its worst in some of SA’s most marginal seats, with exclusive new data revealing the tenant vote could decide the next federal election.

The electorates of Sturt and Boothby are on a knife’s edge politically, but they are also home to increasingly challenging rental markets, with the average tenant in these seats spending up to 33.04 per cent of their income on rent.

Tenants in the seat of Sturt – which spreads from Burnside to Gilles Plains and is held by Liberal MP James Stevens after a 0.45 per cent swing his way in the last election – are currently paying 12.11 per cent more than they were this time last year and 31.9 per cent of their income on rent.

Those in the marginal seat of Boothby, which stretches from Glenelg North to Marino and as high up as Crafers West and is currently held by Louise Miller-Frost after a swing of 3.28 per cent her way in the last election, are spending 33.04 per cent of their income on rent.

Weekly rents there have increased by 10.21 per cent over the past year.

City of Mitcham mayor Dr Heather Holmes-Ross.

Mitcham council mayor Dr Heather Holmes-Ross – whose council is in Boothby – said more needed to be done to help renters, and that there could well be political ramifications if the government didn’t.

“It’s a societal issue – we don’t have enough housing, and in any societal issue I think Government has a role to play,” Dr Holmes-Ross says.

“About 18 per cent of our residents are renters.

“I think we need to diversify our housing stock – certainly within Mitcham there is room for higher density as well as traditional large family homes.

“If the government can help incentivise diversification within the city rather than pushing huge populations out to the fringes I think that would be good.”

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MCG Quantity Surveyors managing director Mike Mortlock said the analysis by SuburbTrends highlighted the gravity of the situation and its potential political ramifications.

“Rental increases in marginal seats are putting immense pressure on renters. With average rental increases exceeding 20 per cent, it’s becoming unsustainable,” Mr Mortlock said.

“This affordability crisis is not just a personal issue for renters but a significant political one that could influence the next federal election.”

Mike Mortlock

Julie Collins during Question Time at Parliament House in Canberra. Picture: NCA NewsWire / Martin Ollman

Mr Mortlock said as renters in these marginal seats grappled with escalating costs, their voting behaviour may shift, potentially challenging the dominance of traditional parties.

“If the major parties do not address this issue, we could see a significant shift in voter sentiment towards independents and minor parties who prioritise housing affordability.”

Federal minister for housing Julie Collins said the government was helping nearly one million Australian households with the cost of rent by delivering the first back-to-back increase to Commonwealth Rent Assistance in more than 30 years.

“We’ll continue to work closely with state and territories, as well as the sector, to ensure more Australians have a safe and affordable place to call home.”

Jess and Michael Le Page are selling their Salisbury home with a granny flat, which the next buyer could rent out. Picture: Brenton Edwards

Office administrator Jessica Le Page, 36, and her auto electrician husband Michael, 39, live in the ALP’s safe seat of Spence and are currently selling their 63 Margaret Ave, Salisbury home.

Rentals there have increased by 13.5 per cent over the past year – the highest of any SA seat – with tenants spending 34.36 per cent of their income on rent – the second highest in the state.

Mr Le Page says the rental market in the area was tough, with several of their neighbours moving on in recent years.

“This is because the rental prices have gone up and they’ve been priced out, and many landlords have sold up because the prices have increased so much,” he said.

“That’s where I think our property is great, because it has a granny flat, which now, thanks to a recent legislation change, can be rented out to anyone, so not only is it a great investment for the next buyer, but it is one more property potentially for the local rental market.”