Donald Trump’s new world order: What could change in war zones

Donald Trump becoming the US president again comes at an even more turbulent time. Here’s how his presidency could change the course of major global issues.

World leaders rushed to congratulate Donald Trump as his crushing win in the US election signalled a 2.0 presidency that could change the course of global issues.

From Volodymyr Zelensky in Ukraine to Benjamin Netanyahu in Israel and Olaf Scholz in Germany, countries reliant on America’s weapons, intelligence and trade woke up to a new global order being created in the image of a 78-year-old Florida man with a historic mandate and a long memory.

Before diplomatic dispatches came in from around the world, one of the first Americans to congratulate the president-elect could end up playing an outsized role in shaping the foreign policy of the next Trump administration.

“This is a victory for every American, and a testament to their indomitable spirit despite the lies of the ruling elites, who told Americans that they were ‘garbage’ or ‘fascist’ for wanting to put America first,” said Kevin Roberts, President of the Heritage Foundation and forward author of the Project 2025 playbook.

Donald Trump will be inaugurated as America’s 47th president on January 20. Picture: AFP

That “America First” priority was codified in Project 2025, which was disavowed during the campaign as it became a political liability, but it remained a core principle of Mr Trump’s team.

As Mr Trump’s previous acting defence secretary Christopher Miller outlined, the second term will require more nuclear weapons, a new strategy to deter China from invading Taiwan, and a greater burden placed on regional security partners, whether it’s in Europe, like NATO, or the Asia-Pacific, like Australia.

A day after the election, Duke University Professor of Political Science Peter D Feaver predicted Mr Trump’s new administration could change the world in ways in which his first did not, adding that “personnel will shape policy” as he will likely surrounded by fewer moderate advisers than during his first term.

The “known unknowns”, Mr Feaver warned in his post-election outlook, were Mr Trump’s “unpredictability, erratic style, and less-than-coherent thinking”, and how the rest of the world would react.

Trump has vowed to end the Ukraine-Russia conflict. Picture: AFP

Ukraine-Russia War

Mr Trump has vowed to end the war before his inauguration with the allusion that Ukraine would have to cede territory to Russia, based on its control of Crimea and parts of the Donbas.

Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky, not coincidentally, was among the first to congratulate Mr Trump on his “impressive” victory.

Mr Zelensky has been planning for a Trump presidency for months and visited Mar-a-Lago in September to present his “victory plan”.

“I appreciate President Trump’s commitment to the ‘peace through strength’ approach in global affairs. This is exactly the principle that can practically bring just peace in Ukraine closer. I am hopeful that we will put it into action together.

Russian President Vladimir Putin, meanwhile, had no plans for a congratulatory phone call, with Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov saying that US-Russia relations were at their “lowest point in history”.

Donald Trump and Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu discussed the ‘Iran threat’ just this week. Picture: AFP

Israel’s fight against Hamas, Hezbollah, and Iran

Mr Trump’s approach to Israel’s conflict with Hamas and Hezbollah is widely divergent from the current administration.

Mr Biden called for a ceasefire, urged troops to leave Gaza, and warned against striking Iran’s nuclear facilities. Mr Trump said Iran’s nuclear program should be Israel’s first target. Mr Trump also isolated Iran with “maximum pressure” in his first term while the Biden administration sought dialogue and gave concessions in search of a deal.

Like Mr Zelensky, Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu visited Mar-a-Lago in the lead-up to the election.

“Congratulations on history’s greatest comeback!” Mr Netanyahu said. “Your historic return to the White House offers a new beginning for America and a powerful recommitment to the great alliance between Israel and America.”

China and Indo-Pacific Security

Similar to Mr Trump’s calls for Europe to play a larger role in NATO’s defence of Europe, those around him want the US’s allies in the Indo-Pacific to play a larger role in the deterrence of China.

Quad countries India, Japan and Australia all congratulated Mr Trump, with Prime Minister Anthony Albanese saying “Australians and Americans are great friends and true allies”.

But there was notable silence from Chinese Chairman Xi Jinping, who Mr Trump has hailed as one of his great friends.

Chinese foreign ministry spokesperson Mao Ning said US-China relations would continue to seek “win-win co-operation” while refusing to “answer hypotheticals” about Mr Trump’s threatened trade tariffs.

“The US presidential election is an internal affair of the United States, and we respect the choice of the American people,” she said.

European Trade War and NATO support

The biggest fears of French President Emmanuel Macron and his German counterpart Olaf Scholz extend beyond Mr Trump’s notorious scepticism of the NATO alliance to the possibility of an all-out trade war between the US and the European Union.

Mr Trump vowed to bring back jobs to the US with across-the-board tariffs of 10 to 20 per cent, leaving EU leaders privately preparing countermeasures while publicly offering the hand of friendship.

Mr Scholz promoted mutual “prosperity” and freedom on both sides of the Atlantic, while Mr Macron said he was ready to work together.

Originally published as Donald Trump’s new world order: What could change in war zones