UK election 2024: What Keir Starmer’s forecast win means for Australia

A major shift in the political relationship between Australia and the UK could be on the way following the Labour Party’s landslide election victory, experts have revealed.

The British government’s love affair with Australia is over with Labour to flip foreign policy focus from the Indo Pacific to Europe and Africa, Australia’s former top London diplomat George Brandis has revealed.

Professor Brandis said Labour under Sir Keir Starmer would continue to strongly back AUKUS, less for its security value and more for the sustained jobs boom it will create in England’s north.

But Prof Brandis, Australia’s High Commissioner to the UK from 2018 to 2022 and now an academic at the ANU National Security College, said Australia should expect different mother country relations.

He said Labour had already revealed it was planning to “audit” its engagement in the Indo Pacific and that the Ukraine War had flagged a need for greater Europe focus.

Labour Leader Keir Starmer celebrates winning the 2024 General Election with a speech at Tate Modern. Picture: Getty

Whereas the Tory government was full of Australia-philes, not least of all the former prime ministers Boris Johnson and Liz Truss, all sentiment and familiarity now was gone.

The exception was Labour’s 58-year-old Sydney-born Catherine West, who moved to the UK in her early 20s, and is now set to be appointed junior foreign minister with responsibility for Asia and the Pacific.

Prof Brandis said he spoke with her in January and she told him the Ukraine War had taught Britain its vital interests had to be European interests and NATO primarily then Labour’s policy and focus was for international aid and relations in Africa.

“Starmer doesn’t know Australia very well, not many of his ministers have ever been to Australia, the big exception is Catherine West …” Prof Brandis said.

He said Labour’s David Lammy, expected to take up the foreign portfolio had also already announced his incoming government would audit Britain’s engagement with the Indo Pacific.

“Now you don’t announce an audit unless you are going to cut back frankly,” he said.

Britain's Labour Party leader Keir Starmer holding hands with his wife Victoria is congratulated by former Labour Party leader Neil Kinnock during a victory rally at the Tate Modern. Picture: AFP

“So I think where as the structural fundamentals of the relationship won’t change, the familiarity and sentiment will change and the focus will change. The UK’s Indo-Pacific tilt that came from the integrated review (last year), they may leave that alone in that they won’t rescind it but I think there will be a lot less attention given to it.”

The Tories also had structural connections with AUKUS and the Australia-UK Free Trade Agreement initiated last year.

“There was not only a sense of affection and closeness for Australia but I think there was a sense of familiarity. What I think you will find with the new Labour government is two things – the fundamentals of the relationship won’t change but I think that sentiment and familiarity won’t be there.”

Mr Starmer delivers his victory speech. Picture: AFP

Earlier, before Mr Starmer’s was declared victorious, experts said his leadership would be a win for Australia.

The UK-Australia relationship is already at a new high point, according to political analysts, and there is no indication that would change.

Although some experts say the Labour Party has historically been more focused on fostering a strong trade relationship with the European Union, its commitment to Australian relations is recognised and predicted to remain strong.

Labour Leader Sir Keir Starmer. Picture: Christopher Furlong/Getty Images

And Sir Keir, a lawyer turned crown prosecutor who was mentored by Australian human rights barrister Geoffrey Robertson and was a founding member of his Doughty Street Chambers, would likely nurture the solid relations on the back of the trilateral defence agreement AUKUS, the Australia–UK Free Trade Agreement and the diplomatic groundwork already laid in Canberra and London.

DEFENCE

One of Australia’s foremost experts in geo-politics, national security and defence matters Peter Jennings AO said any possible change to the AUKUS was what most most people would be concerned about.

But he believes a Starmer government would have strong industrial and economic reasons to hold the line particularly because the UK sees it as bolstering its shipbuilding capabilities.

Jennings also thinks a strong Labour government would reduce the revolving door of ministers and prime ministers, making the two left-leaning governments more ideologically sympathetic.

Australian-born UK MP Catherine West, who is line to become the minister for Asia and the Pacific, has said that her government would not undo the AUKUS deal nor deprioritise it.

Ms West has said when it came to the Australia-UK relationship, there would be “absolutely no difference” between a Labour government and the current Sunak one.

“I think that the AUKUS project, the positioning in particular, will go from strength to strength,” she has told the media.

Ms West said a Labour government also wanted to work closely with Australia on understanding and meeting the challenges of a rising, changing China.

Director of public policy and communications at the Institute of Economic Affairs think tank Matthew Lesh said Labour’s manifesto commits the party to the trilateral AUKUS agreement because it is “as necessary for UK’s defence as it is for Australia”.

Head of foreign policy at the Policy Exchange think tank in Westminster Sophia Gaston maintains the UK-Australia relationship is “strongest” when the same parties are in power in both capitals, “as political will and camaraderie can be important in pushing initiatives across the line”.

Catherine West MP. Picture: Facebook

Australia’s High Commissioner to the UK Stephen Smith. Picture: Euan Cherry/Parsons Media

She argues the UK-Australia relationship is experiencing a new high point of no return, with the free trade agreement and AUKUS pact spawning opportunities for trade and investment, mobility, and defence co-operation.

“Labour won’t go back on AUKUS, the UK is too far ahead in the process,” she said.

“This is against a backdrop of a rapidly deteriorating global security environment. There is a strong bipartisan foundation to the relationship, mainly due to the shared assessment of the challenges facing the international order from the rise of authoritarian powers such as China and Russia.”

Australia’s High Commissioner to the UK Stephen Smith said he, too, would not expect “any significant change in approach” from a Labour government, on either economic or security issues.

“One of the great things about implementing AUKUS and the FTA, day in and day out, is that we – Australia and the UK – have rediscovered the depths of our like-mindedness,” Mr Smith said.

TRADE

While Mr Smith is buoyant about trade between the two nations, director of public policy and communications at the Institute of Economic Affairs think tank Matthew Lesh believes a Starmer Government would put greater emphasis on strengthening relations with the EU and Europe than boosting its ties with Australia.

Mr Lesh thinks Labour would be sceptical about the Australia-UK trade deal because it hasn’t committed to renegotiating it, even though other parties, like the Liberal Democrats, have the Australia-UK trade deal in their manifestos.

Ben Wellings, Associate Professor of Politics and International Relations at Monash University. Picture: Supplied

Matthew Lesh from the Institute of Economic Affairs. Picture: Supplied

He predicts that Sir Keir would seek agreements to tighten relations with the EU, which would undermine Australia-UK trade relations.

“If Labour signs a veterinary agreement with the EU, which would commit the UK to follow EU standards, that could then limit certain imports from Australia, if it was decided that they don’t meet the requirements that the UK has signed up to,” Mr Lesh explained.

“If Keir Starmer decides to join a Single Market or the Customs Union that could require the UK to exit the trade agreement … this could mean a loss of high quality and cheaper exports from Australia as a result of not having the tariff.

“It will be a slow process.”

He said the Conservative government was a lot more sympathetic to Australia and committed to the Asia Pacific region.

Monash University Associate Professor of Politics and International Relations Ben Wellings agrees.

“The Free Trade Agreement ratified last year will remain strong but Labour will not actively seek to extend it,” he said.

“Let’s face it, it’s not exactly boosting trade in a significant way for Australia.”

UKRAINE AND ISRAEL

Assoc Prof Wellings predicts a Labor Government in Canberra and a Labour government in London would result in increased co-operation on Ukraine and the Israel-Gaza war.

“They would be more aligned and there would be more support to Ukraine but both labour governments would work closely to shore up Ukrainian sovereignty,” he said.

“That could mean Australia sending more Bushmaster armoured fighting vehicles and is interested in International Rules based order and wants to collaborate with as many partners as possible to sustain global order challenged by Russia, China, Iran, and North Korea.”

Assoc Prof Wellings, believes a Labour government would push for “a more pro-Palestinian position.”

“I could see a Labour government pushing more strongly for ceasefire pacts even without the return of hostages – this is in line with the views of Labor in Canberra who want a two state solution with international borders.”

Ms Gaston also believes the two governments would work more closely “on supporting Ukraine and reaching an agreement for Israel.”

TOURISM AND VISAS

With the UK’s youth mobility program already extended in January to allow Australians aged 18-35 to stay in the UK with unrestricted work rights for two years, with the option to extend for a third year, Australians on different work visas may benefit under a Labour rule, Mr Lesh predicts.

“Labour says it wants to reduce immigration but hasn’t said anything about a cap and that could be beneficial for Australia,” he predicts.

“That could be a big draw for Australians wanting to work and build their lives in England.”

Originally published as UK election 2024: What Keir Starmer’s forecast win means for Australia