Tory loss could have been worse as Keir Starmer and Nigel Farage take votes away

The Conservatives’ loss could have been much worse. But they now face their toughest battle yet after losing on major issues with voters, writes James Campbell.

Bizarre as it might sound, given the exit poll has them losing 234 seats, the Tories will be breathing a sigh of relief, as they are projected to have at least 131 members in the new House of Commons.

Yes, the Conservative have been smashed and Keir Starmer’s Labour Party is on track to have 410 of the 650 MPs.

But as bad as this is, it could have been much, much worse.

In the past week some polls had the Tories winning as few as 65 seats, a result which would have seen them neck-and-neck with the centrist Liberal Democrats to the official opposition.

Labour leader Keir Starmer. Picture: Getty Images

If the exit poll is correct that hasn’t happened and the once mighty natural party of government will at least be the second largest party in the new parliament.

After 14 years in office and on their fourth Prime Minister, it was clear time was up for the Tories.

But as the results began rolling in it was clear that while Starmer will have a huge majority he has achieved it without any great enthusiasm from the electorate.

This is no 1997 Blair-slide which saw Labour storm to office with an 8.8 per cent swing.

Five hours into the count Labour’s vote share was only up by 1.84 per cent on the 2019 result that gave Boris Johnson an 80 seat majority.

Reform UK leader Nigel Farage. Picture: Getty Images

Just as Anthony Albanese won in 2022 despite the ALP vote share actually dropping, Starmer and his deputy Angela Rayner both had swings against them in their own seats.

The reason for the lopsided result is down to one man, Reform Party leader Nigel Farage.

In seat after seat across the northeast of England Reform forced the Conservative Party into third place.

Though it’s also taken some support from Labour, the overwhelming majority of the votes Farage has won have come from the Conservatives.

Britain’s first-past-the-post electoral system which for more than a century worked in the Tories’ favour, delivering it majorities far in excess of its vote share, has finally turned against it savagely.

How the party must be regretting working to sink the 2011 referendum proposal that would have seen the UK adopting Australia’s preferential voting system.

Keir Starmer’s Labour Party is on track to have 410 of the 650 MPs. Picture: Getty Images

To illustrate the brutality of the way first-past-the-post punishes division, it looks like Starmer will win his massive majority with a lower share of the vote than the unelectable Jeremy Corbyn managed in 2017.

To some the populist Farage, who after umpteen attempts finally made it to the Commons alongside a predicted 12 colleagues, will be a hero.

Others will just see him as a wrecker, who has handed the not-very-popular Labour a blank cheque to take the country Left-ward.

The Tories were not the only party having a shocker of a night.

In Scotland the Scottish National Party was set to drop from 52 to 14 seats.

That result will end all talk of Scottish independence for the foreseeable future and leaves Labour as the closest thing to a truly national party.

If there is a lesson for Australian politics it is how quickly voters can swing.

In 2019 it looked like Labour would be out for another decade in the wilderness.

Five years later they’re back with a massive majority.

Originally published as Tory loss could have been worse as Keir Starmer and Nigel Farage take votes away