How much damage has Israel inflicted on Iran’s nuclear program?
Israel’s strikes on Iran have targeted several of its nuclear facilities, but has the conflict removed the alleged weapons threat? Here’s what we know.
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Israel’s strikes on Iran have targeted several of its nuclear facilities, as it claims the Islamic republic is seeking to develop nuclear weapons - an accusation Tehran denies.
Experts told AFP that while the attacks have caused some damage to Iran’s nuclear programme, they are unlikely to have delivered a fatal blow.
Here is an update on Iran’s nuclear sites:
What is the extent of the damage?
Israel’s operation included strikes on Iran’s underground uranium enrichment sites at Natanz and Fordow, and on its Isfahan nuclear site, the UN’s International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) said, citing Iranian officials.
A key, above-ground component of Iran’s Natanz nuclear site has been destroyed, including its power infrastructure.
Agency chief Rafael Grossi said Monday that there has been “no indication of a physical attack on the underground cascade hall containing part of the Pilot Fuel Enrichment Plant and the main Fuel Enrichment Plant”.
However, power loss at the cascade hall “may have damaged the centrifuges”, the machines used to enrich uranium.
There was “extensive” damage to the site’s power supply, according to a report from the Institute for Science and International Security (ISIS), a US-based organisation specialising in nuclear proliferation, which analysed satellite images.
If backup power is lost, “at the least, the enrichment plant is rendered inoperable for the time being”, it said.
At Iran’s underground Fordow enrichment plant, the country’s second uranium enrichment facility, the IAEA observed “no damage” following the attacks, Grossi said.
At the Isfahan nuclear site, however, “four buildings were damaged”: the central chemical laboratory, a uranium conversion plant, the Tehran reactor fuel manufacturing plant, and a metal processing facility under construction, the IAEA said.
Significant uranium stockpiles are believed to be stored around the Isfahan site.
Ali Vaez, International Crisis Group’s Iran project director, told AFP that if Iran managed to transfer significant quantities to “secret facilities,” then “the game is lost for Israel”.
Iran’s only nuclear power plant, the Bushehr plant, was not targeted, nor was the Tehran research reactor.
Can the program be destroyed?
While “Israel can damage Iran’s nuclear programme... it is unlikely to be able to destroy it,” Vaez said, arguing that Israel does not have the massively powerful bombs needed “to destroy the fortified, bunkered facilities in Natanz and Fordow”.
Destroying those would require US military assistance, added Kelsey Davenport, an expert with the Arms Control Association.
She also stressed that Israel’s unprecedented attack cannot erase the expertise Iran had built up on nuclear weapons, despite killing nine Iranian nuclear scientists.
What are the risks to the Iranian population?
The IAEA has not detected any increase in radiation levels at the affected sites.
“There is very little risk that attacks on Iran’s uranium enrichment facilities would result in a harmful radiation release,” said Davenport.
But an attack on the Bushehr plant could “have a serious impact on health and the environment”, she added.
After Israel launched its strikes, Grossi said that nuclear facilities “must never be attacked” and that targeting Iranian sites could have “grave consequences for the people of Iran, the region, and beyond”.
Is Iran close to developing a nuclear bomb?
After the United States unilaterally withdrew in 2018 from a landmark deal that sought to curb Tehran’s nuclear activities, Iran has gradually retreated from some of its obligations, particularly on uranium enrichment.
As of mid-May, the country had an estimated 408.6 kilogrammes enriched to up to 60 percent - just a short step from the 90 percent needed for a nuclear warhead.
Iran theoretically has enough near-weapons-grade material, if further refined, for about 10 nuclear bombs, according to the definition by the Vienna-based IAEA.
Iran is the only non-nuclear-armed state producing uranium to this level of enrichment, according to the UN nuclear watchdog.
While the IAEA has been critical of Iran’s lack of cooperation with the UN body, it says that there are “no credible indications of an ongoing, undeclared structured nuclear program”.
Tehran has consistently denied ambitions to develop nuclear warheads. But Davenport warned the strikes could strengthen factions in Iran advocating for an atomic arsenal.
“Israel’s strikes set Iran back technically, but politically the strikes are pushing Iran closer to nuclear weapons,” she said.
HOW ISRAEL ATTACKED IRAN
Israeli spies smuggled missiles and secretly hid explosive drones deep inside Iran in a series of covert operations leading up to Friday’s deadly onslaught – before tricking military leaders into gathering for a meeting so they could be wiped out.
Intelligence agents with Mossad, Israel’s top spy agency, started infiltrating the heart of Iran several months back in order to pull off the surprise attack aimed at obliterating Iranian nuclear and military facilities, as well as a swath of top military commanders.
The spy agency planted the explosive drones inside Iran ahead of time as they laid the groundwork for the major strikes, according to Israeli security sources.
Agents also managed to smuggle precision weapons into central Iran so Israel could target Tehran’s defences from within.
The stealth campaign, dubbed Operation Rising Lion, was eventually conducted in three separate operations early Friday local time – with the airstrikes each targeting specific weaponry and defence systems in Iran, one Israeli security source told The New York Post.
Commando units deployed precision-guided weapons near Iran’s surface-to-air missile defences and targeted the Iranian systems.
A second operation set up strike systems and mounted technology onto vehicles that were launched at Iranian air defence systems.
The final operation targeted Iran’s surface-to-surface missile launchers at a base outside of Tehran when the explosive-laden drones were activated.
The unmanned aerial vehicles flew to the base and destroyed the launchers that had “posed a threat to Israeli strategic and civilian targets.”
The sabotage operations allowed Israel’s airstrikes to destroy radars and other surface-to-air defences. Nuclear plants and uranium enrichment facilities were also targeted.
Roughly 200 aircraft were involved in the initial attack on about 100 targets, Israel’s military said.
The attack hit several sites, including Iran’s main nuclear enrichment facility at Natanz, where black smoke could be seen rising into the air. Later in the morning, Israel said it had also destroyed dozens of radar installations and surface-to-air missile launchers in western Iran.
Several high-ranking Iranian officials were killed in the strikes – including Gen. Hossein Salami, the head of Iran’s Revolutionary Guard; Mohammad Bagheri, chief of the country’s military; Gholam Ali Rashid, head of Iran’s emergency command; and Amir Ali Hajizadeh, the head of the Revolutionary Guards aerospace force.
Israel was able to trick some top commanders of Iran’s air force into gathering for a meeting before they were targeted, an Israeli official told Fox News.
“We carried out specific activities to help us learn more about them, and then used that information to influence their behaviour,” the official said.
“We knew this would lead them to meet — but more importantly, we knew how to keep them there.”
It wasn’t immediately clear how Israel managed to lure the Iranian officials together.
“Significant intelligence was gathered and surveillance was conducted to incriminate senior members of the Iranian defence establishment and nuclear scientists who were eliminated,” a source told The New York Post.
“This was carried out alongside a covert operational campaign targeting Iran’s strategic missile array.”
The unprecedented strikes appeared to be the most significant attack Iran has faced since its 1980s war with Iraq.
Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu defended the operation, saying the effort was to “roll back” Iran’s threat to Israel’s “very survival.”
“If we don’t act now, we simply won’t be here. We have internalised the lessons of history. When an enemy says he intends to destroy you — believe him,” he said.
“When the enemy develops the capabilities to destroy you — stop him.”
Iran quickly called the barrage of strikes a “declaration of war,” as Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei warned of “severe punishment” and President Masoud Pezeshkian vowed to make “Israel regret its foolish act.”
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