How Donald Trump could get Caitlyn Jenner to high office
The odds of Caitlyn Jenner becoming governor of California have significantly dropped as new polling reveals her impossible position.
World
Don't miss out on the headlines from World. Followed categories will be added to My News.
The odds of former Olympian Caitlyn Jenner becoming the next governor of California appear to be slipping after the reality TV star polled at just 6 per cent.
“It’s a very poor showing,” UC Berkeley Institute of Governmental Studies poll director Mark DiCamillo told the Los Angeles Times.
“Even among Republicans, only 13 per cent say they’d be inclined to vote for her.”
The low numbers surprised many due to Jenner, who is running as a Republican, receiving major press coverage from CNN and Fox News.
“There doesn’t seem to be a significant constituency for her candidacy,” DiCamillo said.
Current Governor Gavin Newsom leads the poll at 52 per cent, while businessman John Cox and former Mayor of San Diego Kevin Faulconer are leading as republican candidates.
TRUMP COULD HELP JENNER WIN
It may be hard to believe after the tumult of the past four years under Donald Trump, but America is once again flirting with the real possibility that another controversial former reality TV star could assume one of its biggest political roles.
So it’s little surprise that transgender Olympian Caitlyn Jenner is already borrowing from the Trump playbook and campaign staff in her bid for the governorship of California.
At first glance, history appears to be repeating in the country’s most populous state, where celebrity Republican candidate Jenner is gaining momentum as well as extraordinary publicity.
Despite winning by a historic margin in 2018, the declining fortunes of Democratic Governor Gavin Newsom have created the real possibility that the deeply blue Golden State could once again fall into the hands of Republicans.
Like Trump before him, Newsom’s political peril comes down to criticism of his handling of the pandemic, with more than 1.5 million Californians signing a petition for a special election, which could come in November.
Frustrated by the impact of harsh and unpredictable lockdowns on their battered businesses, crushing unemployment and continued school closures, the citizens of the world’s fifth-biggest economy are expressing their anger by mounting what is set to be only the second “recall” election in the state’s history.
The last time this happened was in 2003, when Republican Arnold Schwarzenegger beat a field of more than 150 candidates that included other actors, a porn star and a psychic to become “the Governator”.
The socially liberal, fiscally moderate Schwarzenegger held office until 2011 — but despite sharing a friendship, political party and celebrity background with Jenner, the similarities between the two candidates and their respective races end there.
“California has become much deeper as a blue state, as a Democratic state, since 2003,” explains political scientist David McCuan from California’s Sonoma University.
“Republicans have basically become an endangered species in California, and it makes it very difficult for them to assume statewide office.”
But the vagaries of the recall election process — where a simple majority vote from a potentially crowded field of genuine candidates combined with any “dingbat” who can muster the necessary 7000 signatures and $4000 to run — make it possible that Newsom could lose office.
And it’s this potential that has drawn huge money and the support of the powerful Republican National Committee to propel the California recall effort, which needs to pass only a few more mainly administrative steps to lead to a poll.
THE POLITICS OF CELEBRITY
“The process of the recall is hugely important for the Democratic and Republican Party,” says Professor McCuan.
“This is going to become the political story of 2021. You not only have the politics of celebrity, which we’ve already seen with the flash that is Caitlyn Jenner, but there is a Republican who wants to be speaker of the House from California, Kevin McCarthy, who believes they can win the midterm election next year.
“And he’s allied with the former president of the United States who’s taken up residence in Florida. How do Donald Trump and Kevin McCarthy stay out of this race?
“And, therefore, how does (Vice-President) Kamala Harris from California and the White House stay out of this race?”
Jenner transitioned from Bruce Jenner to Caitlyn Jenner in 2015 after splitting with Chris Jenner, matriarch of the Kardashian family.
The pair had daughters Kendall and Kylie Jenner and chronicled their family lives on the show Keeping up with the Kardashians.
Despite sharing her transition experience on reality show I am Cait, the Olympic gold medallist decathlete does not enjoy wide support in the trans community, mainly because of her conservative stances.
She expressed support for Trump early in his term but walked that back after he banned trans members from the US military. And her first policy statement since announcing her run for governor last week was to say trans girls shouldn’t be able to participate in female sport at school.
It’s unclear what impact Jenner’s Trump ties will have on her campaign, but she certainly appears to be pitching to his supporters.
Trump’s 2016 digital campaign strategist Brad Parscale — who suffered a breakdown in the run up to the November 2020 election — is a friend who has advised her, and Republican operatives from Trump’s White House are on her team.
‘THE OLYMPIC SPIRIT’
Jenner also chose Trump confidante, the right-wing Fox News host Sean Hannity, for her first interview.
This interview gave new insight into what was driving Jenner’s run, with her saying she wanted to “take that same fight, the same spirit” that took her to Olympic glory.
“I am an outsider, I understand that,” she said. “Now I want to race for solutions to turn this state around.”
Jenner said she would “surround myself with the smartest people out there and race for solutions to be able to turn this state around”.
Echoing Republican dissatisfaction with COVID-related shutdowns, Jenner also used her first campaign ad to pledge to restart California’s economy and fully return children to school.
Professor McCuan says Jenner’s Trump ties could work either way, given how “toxic” is his brand in California — but at the same time an endorsement from the former president could tip the race in her favour.
BIG NAME ADVANTAGE
“It doesn’t matter in a sense that Donald Trump is not popular. His ability to bring name recognition, dollars and resources to the campaign could elevate an anointed candidate,” he says.
“And that’s her potential, because she has directly allied herself with Trump and the brand of Trump. Even though it is toxic in California, it is in some ways an important marketing strategy.”
Political scientist Thad Kousser says although Jenner is “not at all the front runner”, she could be in with a chance.
“She’s going to draw a lot of attention, both in a way that the media is going to give her chances to tell her unique story and her social media presence that allows her, like Arnold Schwarzenegger, to effectively bypass the traditional media and speak directly to voters,” says Professor Kousser from University of California, San Diego.
“Familiarity is star power and ability to avoid the media filter. Arnold Schwarzenegger famously launched his campaign on The Tonight Show, went on Oprah, and was able to frame his own message rather than be framed by journalists.
“That was a huge event. With Caitlyn Jenner now it’s a different technology but it’s the same advantage of having a huge social media presence that allows her to tell her story.”
Professor McCuan says celebrity candidates such as Jenner and Schwarzenegger are unique to California, which has produced two Republican presidents in Richard Nixon and former actor Ronald Reagan.
“California has been that place historically in the union where the American dream has come alive,” he says.
“It’s been the place where Hollywood meets Silicon Valley and Disneyland, and everything that is mum, apple pie and Chevrolet. It’s been about the manifest destiny, the possibility of America.”
He also predicts that while Jenner is the first celebrity to put their hand up for this race, she won’t be the last.
“It’s possible that one person who recently relocated to Texas, but who has roots in California and has more money than God, could step up — and that’s Elon Musk,” Professor McCuan says.
“There’s going to be a lot more to say about this race.”
A STRANGE STATE OF AFFAIRS
Known for producing two presidents in Richard Nixon and Ronald Reagan, California has also delivered plenty of other colourful candidates.
The race that gave the governorship to Terminator star Arnold Schwarzenegger (bottom) was a “circus” featuring a porn star and a psychic.
Gary Coleman, the former child star from 1980s sitcom Different Stokes, was the other big name actor on the 2003 ballot.
Oscar winner Clint Eastwood and 1960s popstar Sonny Bono were both California mayors.
Former president Donald Trump is of course America’s best known New York celebrity turned politician, but in recent years Sex And The City Star Cynthia Nixon also took an unsuccessful run at the state’s governorship.
More Coverage
Originally published as How Donald Trump could get Caitlyn Jenner to high office
Read related topics:Donald Trump
Join the conversation
Shocking footage of young girls emerges
A young girl, no older than ten, trudges barefoot down the side of the road, her sister slung over her shoulder. Then a shocked passerby stops her.
Read more
Australia’s $7 billion move amid ‘arms race’
Australia is spending billions on defence upgrades as it contests a regional “arms race”.
Read more