Violent crime in Victoria is happening at a much higher rate than our neighbouring states

Victorians are falling victim to burglaries, car thefts and shop raids at almost twice the rate of residents in New South Wales, a stark new analysis reveals.

Victorians are falling victim to almost twice as many crimes as our NSW neighbours, a stark new analysis reveals.

While New South Wales has brought its offences across four key categories down from 119,673 to 97,451 — a near 19 per cent decrease — since 2015, Victoria’s numbers have soared by close to one-third, from 144,882 to 191,616.

The crime statistics figures for burglary, car theft, theft from cars and retail theft show while both states had similar totals just a decade ago, the difference is now more than 94,000.

One senior Melbourne police officer, speaking anonymously, said there was no mystery why a huge chasm had developed between the two states’ crime numbers.

Years of soft bail and sentencing in Victoria – guided by the principle that criminals should be locked up only as a last resort – meant “there’s no fear” among offenders of being caught, he said.

“The simple risk over reward scenario shows the risk isn’t that great — it all comes down to consequences,” he said.

Melbourne convenience store worker Mohammed Panihani was attacked on the job. Picture: 7News

Youth crime is at a record high across Victoria. Picture: Supplied

It comes as polling reveals the depth of concern about lawlessness in Victoria, with 68 per cent of residents saying tackling crime must be a top priority, well above the national average of 63 per cent.

The SEC Newgate poll of almost 2000 Australians last month found 66 per cent of Melburnians said reducing crime and anti-social behaviour was “extremely important”.

Meanwhile, 73 per cent of people in regional Victoria rated it their top priority.

With the Crime Statistics Agency Victoria and Bureau of Crime Statistics NSW releasing their latest data last week, the Herald Sun analysed four comparative categories of offence.

One of the most startling divergences between the states was in burglaries.

In Victoria, the number of recorded burglary offences in 2015 was 49,714.

It remained at a similar rate in 2024, with 48,213.

During the same period in NSW, burglaries fell by 36 per cent, from 43,539 in 2015 to 27,660 last year.

Car thefts in Victoria soared from 18,857 in 2015 to 28,922 in 2024, a 53 per cent increase.

In the same period, the number of vehicles stolen in NSW held level from 14,114 to 14,899.

Thefts from motor vehicles in Victoria surged 40 per cent, from 54,779 to 75,731.

Across the border in NSW thefts from motor vehicles slid dramatically, from 39,946 to 26,752, a decline of 33 per cent.

In Victoria, the “theft from shop” offence almost doubled – surging from 21,532 to 38,750 – while retail theft in NSW increased from 22,074 to 28,140, a 27 per cent increase.

The analysis was done as part of the Herald Sun’s ongoing Suburbs Under Siege campaign to shine a light on the state’s failing bail laws and to give overlooked victims of crime a much-needed voice.

Victoria’s shocking statistics, released on Thursday, had already confirmed the state was dealing with its worst crime rate on record, with top cops labelling them “totally unacceptable”.

Crime data showed overall offending had risen by 13 per cent in just a year, the highest since 2016.

Theft was the largest driver in the state’s annual crime spike, with theft from a motor vehicle the most common type.

Car thefts also rose by 41 per cent and crimes committed by 10-17 year-olds rose by 16 per cent – both record highs.

Victoria Police Deputy Commissioner Bob Hill said the release of the data must be a “line in the sand moment”.

“As a society, we simply cannot tolerate this level of offending … the community deserves more,” Mr Hill said.

Police say a small group of prolific youth offenders are directly responsible for a large portion of the surge in home invasions and car thefts, with children aged between 10 and 17 offending at their highest levels since 1993.

Premier Jacinta Allan earlier this month announced a ban on machetes and tough new bail laws, with judges and magistrates ordered to put community safety first.

“We got it wrong, and I’m standing here as the premier today having listened to the Victorian community,” Ms Allan said.

Originally published as Violent crime in Victoria is happening at a much higher rate than our neighbouring states