Premier Jacinta Allan’s report card on key issues

Jacinta Allan has faced fierce criticism and polling has been on a one-way trajectory for her government. A year after replacing Daniel Andrews her report card is in.

Given Labor has been in power for almost a decade, the critical challenge for Jacinta Allan has been selling herself as a first-term Premier, with a first-term administration.

Allan has needed to disassociate herself from predecessor Daniel Andrews in several areas.

She has faced fierce criticism as the minister who was responsible for both the failed Commonwealth Games and billions of dollars in cost overruns on the major-projects pipeline during the Andrews era.

But policy realignments in areas including youth justice, energy, and health have helped distance her from the previous government.

Still, polling has been on a one-way trajectory for her government, down to a primary vote low of just 30 per cent since Allan took over. The Coalition has overtaken Labor with a 10-point lead.

SHANNON DEERY and CARLY DOUGLAS deliver the report card on how Allan has performed on the key issues, one year into the top job.

Policy realignments in areas including youth justice, energy, and health have helped Jacinta Allan distance her from the previous government. Picture: David Caird

DEBT

Despite grand promises of a post-Covid debt recovery plan, Victorian debt has increased dramatically.

In the Allan government’s December budget update, debt projections blew out by $6.4bn. In its May budget, the government warned debt would rise to $187.8bn by 2027-28 – $27,000 for every Victorian.

And already, government sources say the May budget has blown out by close to $10bn.

Reining in spending has proved a major hurdle, as has resisting the urge to raise fees and taxes. While Deloitte Access Economics data forecasts Victoria will lead the nation in economic growth over the next five years, the state’s two major ratings agencies – Standard & Poor’s and Moodys – have warned of potentially damaging ratings downgrades that could result in higher interest rates and exacerbate Victoria’s debt position.

GRADE: E (drastic action needed)

PAY WARS

This week, the state’s paramedics ended months-long industrial action after a $600m deal was struck, giving most paramedics a 16.98 per cent pay boost over four years, with some specialists to get an increase of more than 20 per cent.

But in July, police rejected a $500m deal that would have seen the introduction of nine-hour shifts and a nine-day fortnight, in an embarrassment to the government and union which brokered the proposal. Now they are demanding 6 per cent annual pay rises over the next four years and the introduction of new 8.5-hour shifts, at an estimated $840m cost, amid renewed industrial action actively targeting the government.

Firefighters have rejected a 12 per cent pay increase over four years, instead fighting for 25 per cent over three years.

Combined, the Allan government faces an estimated $2bn in extra wages to seal all three deals.

C (showing promise, at a cost)

HOUSING

Despite a commitment to tackle a worsening housing crisis, the government remains significantly behind on a plan to build 800,000 new homes over a decade. Polling shows this is a major problem.

The government is behind on its housing plan. Picture: David Crosling

Work has begun on 10 activity centres, and Victoria has the highest number of building approvals in the country for 2024.

But a refusal to roll back taxes to incentivise development has been slammed by the property industry. Recent ABS data found home completions were going backwards and new Housing Industry Association data revealed approvals in the 12 months to July at just 52,419, well short of the government’s 80,000-a-year target.

D (rapid improvement required)

GAS

The Andrews government waged war on gas, a move Ms Allan has tried to wind back in her first 12 months.

But the government remains locked in a bitter fight with the gas industry, with Allan accused of misleading the public after new laws were introduced to parliament to allow bans on new gas connections in new homes and also prevent plumbers from replacing gas connections in existing homes.

Under pressure to secure energy supply, the government has approved the first gas extraction project in a decade. A plan to bring back the SEC is also forging ahead, with the Allan government rolling out a $1bn plan for the next decade.

C (clarity would be welcome)

EDUCATION

The government spruiks Victoria as having the best NAPLAN results, best attendance, best teacher workforce and best student-teacher ratios. The reality is a little different.

Victoria has slumped to fourth place behind NSW, ACT and WA in three NAPLAN categories – year 7 and 9 spelling and year 9 grammar. Victorian kids are now only coming first or second nationally in 11 categories, down from 16 just 12 months ago.

Victoria has slumped in NAPLAN results. Picture: Alison Wynd

Dozens of planned school upgrades have been delayed due to workforce shortages, and budget pressures have forced a slowdown in the rollout of 30 hours of pre-prep kindergarten.

But the portfolio remains a strong one, with a $400 school savings bonus to help families address cost-of-living pressures. School breakfast clubs were also expanded to every government school, with a $21.1m top-up giving another 200,000 students access to healthy breakfasts. And phonics is also being reintroduced to schools.

B- (some strong work, but must remain vigilant)

SUPERVISED INJECTING ROOM

Backflipping on an Andrews government commitment to establish a CBD drug-injecting room was among one of the Premier’s most significant policy shifts setting her apart from her predecessor.

Amid fears of a spike in city crime and anti-social behaviour, the decision also emphasised her willingness to not blindly follow “expert” advice as she rejected a recommendation in a report by former top cop Ken Lay.

Instead, the government will invest $36.4m to set up a new community health hub on Flinders St. The move was welcomed by the community and local traders.

A (brave and sensible)

AILING HEALTH SYSTEM

Widespread concerns remain about Victoria’s health system, with an increase in ambulance ramping, response time targets being missed and hospital waiting rooms overrun.

There are concerns about an increase in ambulance ramping. Picture: Luis Enrique Ascui

But after flirting with potentially devastating cutbacks which health professionals warned would lead to bed closures and frontline jobs being lost, the government listened and committed an extra $1.5bn in hospitals funding.

Ms Allan also walked away from a recommendation to merge the state’s hospitals and health services.

C (showed capacity to listen, jury’s out)

CONSTRUCTION BLOWOUTS, SUBURBAN RAIL LOOP

Mismanagement has been blamed on a growing list of cost blowouts on the state’s major project pipeline, including $837m added to the Metro Tunnel on Thursday, taking its cost to more than $5bn over initial projections.

The government has committed to winding back its major infrastructure spend, but the controversial Suburban Rail Loop remains a major issue.

The Suburban Rail Loop is a major issue.

Ms Allan has repeatedly recommitted to the $34.5bn first stage of the project, saying it is a non-negotiable under her leadership.

Ratings giant Standard & Poor’s has warned that Victoria’s credit rating could be slashed – a disastrous move – if the Allan government presses on with the SRL without major funding support from the federal government, which is not forthcoming.

Polling also shows voters are losing confidence in the monster project, while even some inside Allan’s own cabinet acknowledge it as a misguided attempt to bolster Labor’s support in Melbourne’s southeast.

E (read the room)

YOUTH CRIME

Youth crime was a huge issue for Ms Allan when she took the top job, and it remains so.

The latest data, released on Thursday, shows that almost 10 youth gang members and child criminals are arrested every day across Victoria. At the same time, youth crime has soared to its highest level since 2010.

Ms Allan has sought to address the potentially damaging issue by doing a U-turn on a commitment to raise the age of criminal responsibility to 14, settling on a more politically palatable 12 instead, despite uproar from legal and human rights groups.

While still introducing widespread youth justice reforms that legislate a scheme for warnings, cautions and early diversion, the government has also tightened bail laws including delivering electronic monitoring as an optional bail condition for children.

C (much improved but still much to do)

Originally published as Premier Jacinta Allan’s report card on key issues