‘Increasingly nervous’: Disaffected voters could see ALP lose seat of Werribee for first time since 1979

Premier Jacinta Allan was conspicuously absent from campaigning in Werribee on Friday amid fears her brand could hurt the Labor candidate’s chances of being elected in Saturday’s by-election.

The Allan government is bracing for a massive swing in Saturday’s Werribee by-election, with fears the ALP could lose the seat for the first time since 1979.

Labor has thrown hundreds of thousands of dollars at a campaign to retain the western suburbs seat, which it holds with a 10.9 per cent margin, but there are grave concerns about a backlash by disaffected voters who say they have been neglected by the government.

Crime and transport infrastructure have emerged as major issues for locals who say the heartland seat has been ignored for too long while the government throws billions of dollars to sure up support in more marginal seats across Melbourne, including along the southeast growth corridor.

A polling booth in Werribee on Friday. Picture: Mark Stewart

Jacinta Allan was conspicuously absent from campaigning in the electorate on Friday, sparking suggestions her brand was unhelpful to getting popular local ALP candidate John Lister over the line.

“Absolutely shitting ourselves,” one party figure described the mood on Friday evening.

One insider said they felt “increasingly nervous”, while another predicted the government would hold on but “only by the skin of our teeth”.

Saturday’s by-election was sparked by the resignation of long-serving MP and Treasurer Tim Pallas, who comfortably retained the seat at the 2022 election.

But cash-strapped voters and a general sense of neglect has the party faithful worried that such a result won’t be replicated this time around.

“If we don’t cop a swing against us, Jacinta should call an election tomorrow,” one MP joked.

Mr Lister is a long-time Werribee local, a teacher and CFA volunteer who is well-liked in the community, while the Liberals’ candidate choice, 63-year-old Steve Murphy, has raised eyebrows.

Liberal candidate Steve Murphy in Werribee. Picture: Mark Stewart

Mr Murphy, a real estate agent who used to live in the electorate but now lives in Essendon, has run a campaign highlighting the pinch points of crime, infrastructure and cost of living.

Labor is banking on Mr Lister’s local charm will be enough to get him over the line, with doorknockers saying he’s received a positive reception.

“The Libs, thankfully for us, chose a substandard candidate,” one source said.

A loss for Labor – while not impacting their ability to govern – will inevitably spell trouble for Jacinta Allan and her authority, which has already been bruised by terrible polling.

Sources said she wouldn’t immediately be forced to consider stepping down, but internal chatter and conversations about her ability to win the 2026 election will be almost guaranteed.

The Herald Sun has been told that at last week’s Labor caucus conference – which featured a “rev up” from Queensland Labor Party – Ms Allan delivered a speech to her MPs where she said she was relying on them to get behind her.

On Friday, several MPs said they didn’t want to think about the prospect of a leadership change. And senior Minister Gabrielle Williams, who recently enjoyed a big promotion in the cabinet reshuffle, also sought to shut down any talk that Ms Allan’s future could be on the line.

Ms Allan on Friday said: “I am focused on Victorians and I will continue to work incredibly hard.”

Labor faces a massive swing at the Saturday by-election. Picture: Mark Stewart

There is also a chance it could lose the seat. Picture: Mark Stewart

Back in Werribee, some rusted on Labor supporters said they would stick with the government while others decided it was time for change.

New parents and longtime locals Matt and Lauren were among multiple residents who said they were voting Liberal for the first time, prompted by youth crime fears, crumbling roads and a feeling that the area had been “left behind”.

“We feel like we’ve been taken for granted,” Matt said.

“This area, it’s always been Labor and we feel like the infrastructure has been left behind, and roads have been not built that they’ve promised.”

Mark Mousley, 62, said he would normally vote Labor but “chaotic” local roads and a sense that the party had gone “woke” had driven him to switch sides.

“Tim Pallas is a dirty word in Werribee, trying to get the toxic soil put here” he said, referring to a 2020 proposal to dump the West Gate Tunnel’s toxic soil in Wyndham.

Meanwhile, on the other side of the city, the Liberal Party is also locked in a battle with the Greens to claim Prahran.

A polling booth for the Werribee by-election. Picture: Mark Stewart

The inner-city seat, which has been held by the Greens since 2014, became vacant following the resignation of disgraced Greens MP Sam Hibbins.

The Greens, who have doorknocked 14,000 homes, said housing, cost of living and climate change were top of residents’ minds, with candidate Angelica Di Camillo focused on getting young voters to the booths.

But Liberal candidate Rachel Westaway focused her campaign on violent crime, pointing to a series of recent stabbings and firebombings on Chapel St.

Opposition Leader Brad Battin said Saturday presented an opportunity for voters in Prahran and Werribee to “have their say on Labor’s failures”.

“We’re not taking anything for granted, but we’re offering a real alternative,” he said.

Originally published as ‘Increasingly nervous’: Disaffected voters could see ALP lose seat of Werribee for first time since 1979