Updated Covid modelling suggests cases to reduce ahead of Christmas

Updated modelling has revealed when South Australia’s Covid peak will likely hit, and when it might pass.

Shoppers are being urged to mask up for Black Friday, with the state’s Covid peak expected to hit 1000 cases per day next week, according to official new modelling.

But with case numbers expected to drop ahead of Christmas, the health chief has ruled out the return of restrictions.

Chief Public Health Officer Professor Nicola Spurrier said South Australia was “about a week or so” away from the peak of its latest Covid wave, with latest modelling from SAHMRI and the University of Adelaide predicting up to 1000 Omicron cases per day and up to 300 hospital admissions.

But Prof Spurrier said there would likely be more infections in the community than official figure suggested.

The rate of total infections, which includes people who don’t test or are asymptomatic, was predicted closer to 10,000 cases in one week.

“We can see that (wastewater) gene counts are sitting above (reported numbers), which means there are a lot more people out in the community with infections than we know about,” Prof Spurrier said.

“There will be considerable number of people with such mild symptoms that they don’t even go and get tested.”

The health chief urged people to “think about wearing masks” in crowded or indoor spaces over the next few weeks, particularly during Black Friday sales.

She also asked commuters to consider wearing masks on public transport, despite the state’s mask mandate for public transport being dropped in September - but said the reintroduction of Covid restrictions was “not necessary”.

“I’m sure Rundle Mall is hoping it will be full of people looking for those Christmas gifts, (but) that would be a time I’d be saying to people, ‘Have your mask in your pocket and pop it on if you’re in that crowded space’,” Prof Spurrier said.

“This is only for the next couple of weeks, as we get over that curve and come out the other side.

Prof Spurrier said she did not see “anything on the horizon” that would require Covid restrictions to be enforced.

“It is nice to get to a place in the pandemic where we don’t have a lot of rules that the government has put in place, that people are able to take their own individual responsibility,” she said.

Professor Nicola Spurrier. Picture: NCA NewsWire / Naomi Jellicoe

The health chief also had a message for Father Christmas, welcoming him across the state’s borders – provided he came Covid-prepared.

“Father Christmas, you should have had your four doses of vaccine. I suspect you’re over 70, I’d get in to your GP, make sure that you have a Clinpath referral to get your test done for Covid and have a plan to access your oral antivirals,” she said.

“You’re certainly welcome here in our state.”

Health Minister Chris Picton said the updated modelling was “good news” for Christmas, but urged those visiting vulnerable settings such as healthcare or aged care facilities to wear masks and avoid attending if unwell over the festive period.

Mr Picton said the hospital system would cope with the latest wave, which was expected to be significantly reduced from previous spikes.

He said conversations were being undertaken into when a wider review of the healthcare system would occur.

As of last Friday, there were 6867 new Covid cases in the state compared with 3797 the week before – a near-doubling of cases in just one week.

There have now been more than 1000 deaths in South Australia due to the virus.